South Florida Hurricane Brewing for 5/30-6/2

[HAltschule]

Glancing at the extended range models revealed a rather surprisingly intense low pressure center (likely tropical) moving from the Caribbean to near Key West and Miami, FL in another week and a half. This same tropical system brushes the North Carolina coastline and give Cape Cod, MA a dangerous brush with wind and rain also. The GFS model then stalls the system out, reverses it on a westward track and brings it inland somewhere between CT/RI/Long Island, NY. (Wow...this could really be interesting IF it pans out).

While I know it is very difficult to determine the reality of such a system so far out...it will certainly be something to watch in the models. If it pans out, it could be a very active season indeed.

PS: Did Joe Bastardi predict a hurricane over Miami next week in his outlook from 2005? It wouldn't surprise me since he likes to issue site specific hurricane forecasts for such an irresponsible long range out.

 

[rdale]

GFS is showing high pressure over that area, are you sure you are looking at the right maps? Looks like a good sevwx setup over the central plains, not quite tropical...

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f264_usbg.gif

 

[HAltschule]

Yes. I just looked at it again and the 06z run from this morning shows a moster storm off the Florida coast.

Check it out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_240.shtml

Unless something funky is going on, check out the entire 6z suite for the time period above. It clearly shows the area in question moving from FL up to Southern New England.

Have a look and let me know.

 

[rdale]

I see now - I never look at op GFS > 168 hours, always ensemble. Given that the ENS MEAN doesn't even try to show anything there, the ECMWF shows nothing, and the GFS has a known bug of overdeveloping tropical systems, I can't be too concerned...

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/PN_GZ_240_0500.html

 

[HAltschule]

FWIW, there have been 7 back to back runs of the operational GFS that show some sort of low/poss. tropical development over South Florida region in the 200-280 hour range. Interesting...

 

[rdale]

Still - we're looking at a model that has a known error in developing tropical lows at long range. No other model supports it, even its own ensembles. ECMWF continues to hold high pressure over FL.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/PN_GZ_216_0500.html

 

[HAltschule]

Agreed. But it's fun to watch the models...forgetting for a minute that there are those errors. Now, it would be something if the other models and ensembles came around to the ops GFS scenario.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

All I'm goin to say is if it happens, kick this town's arse. Jacksonvile is wayyyyyyyy over due for a hurricane, its only been what, 40 something years. Plus, I'd sit right here and have to take the observations.

 

[HAltschule]

Gee...I thought you would have been more excited about the RAIN from it to quench some of those wild fires.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Well speaking of tropical and rain, later next week, models show an incredible amount of tropical moisture coming up from Ctrl America, straight for Florida. Oppressivly humid tropical air, Florida sunshine and sea breezes, you can fill in the blanks. BIG RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR WHOLE STATE, and possibly much of the South

 

[HAltschule]

Me thinks this is the same system that I have been talking about in this thread. However, the operational GFS now indicates more of a hybrid low coming up the coast rather than tropical. But that can change easily. Eith way, it would mean big, much neede rains for FL indeed.

 

[HAltschule]

If you look at the date of my original post (9-10 days ago...May 21st), you will come to be surprised that the Operational GFS may have been "right on" in developing a subtropical/hybrid or tropical system so far in advance. This morning's NAM and GFS both still show subtropical/hybrid development in the Gulf of Mexico to East Coast of Florida over the next day or two.

Assuming that something does develop (based on model consensus), it is interesting to note that no model glitch/tropical bias in the GFS occurred 7-10 days ago. That said, I am fairly impressed with the accuracy of depicting a significant low pressure system 10 days out.

Perhaps this post is a few days early (and I might kick myself if nothing happens), but I thought it was interesting to point out that the Operational GFS looks like it may have outshined the ensembles on this one??!!

 

[Derrick Herndon]

If you look at the date of my original post (9-10 days ago...May 21st), you will come to be surprised that the Operational GFS may have been "right on" in developing a subtropical/hybrid or tropical system so far in advance. This morning's NAM and GFS both still show subtropical/hybrid development in the Gulf of Mexico to East Coast of Florida over the next day or two.

Assuming that something does develop (based on model consensus), it is interesting to note that no model glitch/tropical bias in the GFS occurred 7-10 days ago. That said, I am fairly impressed with the accuracy of depicting a significant low pressure system 10 days out.

Perhaps this post is a few days early (and I might kick myself if nothing happens), but I thought it was interesting to point out that the Operational GFS looks like it may have outshined the ensembles on this one??!!

There appears to be a weak circulation in the NW Carib now so at least there is some sort of exisiting disturbance. Another interesting aspect of the forecasts is the amount of low-level shear that develops over FL, especially in the WRF which deepens the low more than the other models. This could lead to a significant tornado threat for FL if the forecasts verify. In fact that threat is probably more dangerous than any TC that might develop since the strong u/l shear is likely to suppress significant intensification.

 

[HAltschule]

As of 6pm EDT on Wednesday, I do see a weak, low level circulation off the coast of western Cuba but there is no significant convection associated with it. Many models still develop this system and NWS Offices across the Northeastern U.S. are starting to pay clsoer attention to the storm potential in their discussions also.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

BRING IT ON MFer! We need the rain, heck, we want 8 inches in one day, then 15 total ffrom this, lord knows that wont happen, but theres a good shot of at least a few inches here in JAX.