Silver Lining Tours vans rolled in Kansas

[Warren Faidley]

Sad thing is..... I really thought after people got in front of the El Reno monster, and / or attempted to dive south, the lessons would have been learned. I'll never forget chasers who were directly involved, laughing and joking about the narrow escapes, especially considering the level of tragedy. I'll bet by next spring, the red dots on Radar Scope will be tempting HP shear regions once more. Regardless, I am glad to see knowledgeable chasers stepping up to create these video presentations. If they save one life, it's all worth it.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Rather than attempting to address the substance of my comment, you chose to respond with an untruthful and bizarre tirade against my character. In a private message, I gave you the opportunity to provide more details since I had no idea what you were talking about (I didn't approach a media outlet to sell a video on May 31 or any other time), but, rather than doing so, you once again deflected by attacking my character. Resorting to innuendos and insults in response to my substantive comments about SLT and the incident of May 28 isn’t a defense of SLT; it’s an acknowledgement that you have no defense. This thread is intended for a serious discussion of the mishap and its aftermath, and I should be able to express my thoughts on that topic without being subjected to a smear campaign. I expect a retraction and an apology.

Jeff,
My apologies for not responding sooner - I have other things that are obviously more important and have been purposely “unplugged” from social and this forum.
That said, here is my response to you (please read it in detail as I have no desire to repeat myself as I’ve done so many times in this thread.)
Also, if by some chance you need help jogging your memory regarding the DM - I can post it if needed. I know sometimes I forget things in the stress of the day so I’d be more than happy to help you if needed.

I’m not going to apologize nor retract anything. I’ve no need to. You sent me a DM with a threatening and demanding overtone. Threatening that “you’ll give me a chance to respond privately before you reply to my post publicly” wanting to know details . And that’s not threatening?

My post was clear in my feelings of sorrow for you as well as having an open mind. I made that statement in verbatim. I asked a question that was not out of line, again “with an open mind”.
There was no hidden agenda. That’s not the way I work, nor who I am - what you see is what you get with me. As such, there was no character attack or even the remote question of your character. It was simply a question regarding the transparency that you seem to be demanding. I was NOT untruthful in ANY WAY. In my private response to you, I mentioned the Washington Post interview, the additional interviews....I mentioned these because you know what media I am referring to. Again, if transparency is key, then my point is that it needs to be mentioned. You mention character attacks - it seems to me that Roger, Caryn, ( SLT as a whole) and ANYONE who may be friends with them or do support them have been the recipients of these “character attacks” In other words - if someone may not agree with Skip’s “assessment”, disagree in part or in whole with you, or dont agree that there should be a lynching, then we fall prey to character attacks. That’s the sad reality. Especially when many of us feel empathy for all parties involved. This includes empathy for you.
I am more than familiar with what this thread is for and what this forum is for. This isn’t my first rodeo. But I loath what this thread has turned into. You mention you should have the right to express your thoughts on the matter without a smear campaign. You are 100% correct....just as I should be able to share/post my thoughts on the subject without a “smear campaign”. Calling me a liar when we both know the truth is the pot calling the kettle black.

Look, Jeff, no one is “out to get you” or defame you, make you look bad, or even question your position. While I don’t agree with the demeanor you have shown or the thought process you have, I do respect your opinion and genuinely feel for you and ALL PARTIES involved. It’s a tough situation. I thought I made this exceptionally clear from my very first post in this thread.

Again, just for clarity sake - I was asking a question about the video because you seem hell bent on transparency. Look, it’s your video, you can do with it what you want. I really don’t give a damn one way or the other. It’s not my business, it’s not my video.
Not my circus, not my monkey. I was just asking “with an open mind” because I felt there was and is a lack of transparency.

Think what you want, do what you want - it has no bearing on me. But please don’t call me a lair when we both know the truth and then speak of smear campaigns and expect an apology.


Back on the topic of Skips analysis. I think it was great for basic spotter training type material overall. I commend him for his diligent hard work and all the time and attention he put into it. He did wonderful job until it became personal. That’s just my thoughts though.

As far as the meteorological aspects, obviously many inconstancies which I conclude may be due to simply not understanding the meteorological process ongoing at the time. There were inconsistencies with radar observations mentioned which led to ultimate incorrect assumptions mentioned. Honestly, I felt like we were dealing with a penis measuring contest from Skip. Entropy is Entropy - and science really doesn’t care how big your Johnson is.
BUT I support what he was trying to do. Ultimately it was a great presentation until it became personal.

So in closing, I must also say that I felt and believe that the video turned into a strong personal attack unfortunately. And then was highlighted more-so by everyone who commended him for doing just that. A shame really.

That’s my 2 cents for whatever it’s worth. Now if you’ll excuse me, I may not be in the forum for a few days as deer season starts tomorrow and I will be hunting.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I'm fairly new here. Where does this rank among most contentious or longest threads in ST history?

Failure to admit fault and some claim no fault
Old chasers vs young chasers
Competing buissness competitors
Differences in opinion on radar interpretation
Long standing insurance/business questions may be answered or litigated
Failure to learn from past mistakes
Defense of friends
Academics vs Professionals vs Hobbyists
Predicted or forseeen accident coming to life
Educational opportunity for other chasers

This thread has so many angles to it...

 

[Rick Schmidt]

On the issue of chasing HP storms, FWIW, I was south and southeast of this monster HP, shooting video and stills, and although at one point I was fairly close to the early tornadoes, I could not see anything but very heavy rain. I also knew that I was going to stay well to the east/southeast of it, because of the hidden tornado. To chasers that are fairly new to this hobby----There will be other tornadoes to chase in the future. Keep that in mind. BTW, I have been chasing storms almost as long as a good friend of mine-- Jon Davies.

 

[Mark Blue]

Okay guys. This is where it stops because you aren't going to be able to resolve this rift by writing extremely long posts back and forth. You each have valid points but it's getting way off topic again and I don't care to delete a slew of posts when I wake up in the morning. Take it to PM, email, wherever, but this thread is going to remain on topic or we'll close it for good. Discuss the meteorological aspects of the storm, ask intelligent questions of Jon, Skip, and Quincy who spent inordinate amounts of time in their analyses, lessons learned, how we can move forward and save lives, even if only one like @Warren Faidley mentioned.

When Roberto Duran threw his arms up and said, "no mas" everyone knew he meant it. Don't underestimate the seriousness with which we're taking this matter.

 

[Lanny Dean]

..”When Roberto Duran threw his arms up and said, "no mas" everyone knew he meant it.

@Mark Blue I’m sorry but this made me laugh lol - not because of what you think - I just watched that historic fight last night on YouTube and commentators were saying how he kept saying “no mas” it made me laugh. Okay back on topic. lol

 

[Todd Lemery]

There’s been a ton of great points made in this thread and it won’t be the last thread we have like this unfortunately. I just hope I’m not a major participant in the next one.
After all that’s been said I can boil it down to one thing for me, regardless if I’m alone or have others in the vehicle counting on me. It’s just to really be careful around HP messes. Sometimes it just might make sense to let the storm go than to try and make a bad position work. It’s just so damn hard to get a good view on an HP storm anyway when you have a limited road network and all the other monkey wrenches that get thrown your way.
I can’t rely on radar to keep me in a good position and I’m human so I’m not going to see all of the subtle clues through the rain when I’m up close and personal. Every time there’s a tornado related incident, although it’s sad and unfortunate to those involved, all of the analysis and back and forth bickering raises awareness and makes people like me think a little bit more.
Thank you to all who have contributed to this thread and maybe, thanks to you, the next time there’s an incident I won’t be involved because of it.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Like @Todd Lemery , I am going to be more careful around HPs as well. I have never been a particularly aggressive chaser that tries to get into the notch of an HP, and I can recall at least one time in the past when I avoided a southward escape option that would have risked passing in front of the bear’s cage before it crossed the road. But there have admittedly been times when I was in the bear’s cage, and I always thought I was reasonably safe even in the rain as long as I had visibity. One takeaway from Skip’s video (thanks to contributed footage) was the realization that you could be “in” a tornado without seeing much of anything that would provide a warning. There was a segment in the video (sorry, don’t feel like going back right now to find the time stamp) where the chase is in the rain and a wind shift is the only warning of tornadic circulation. And then of course @Jeff Lieberman ’s video where there is just a vague shadow barely discernible among the overall gray of the heavy rain, too late to react to. That for sure is going to remove the false sense of security I have had in situations where I was in the bear’s cage and thought I was safe only because there was visibility in the rain and no immediately apparent rotation or lowering right over me or ahead of me.

I don’t feel I am particularly aggressive, but I have definitely wasted too much time staying near an HP looking for a safe way to potentially get in and see something, complete futility like a moth bouncing around a lightbulb. Completely useless, neither inside the notch nor outside far enough to enjoy structure. From now on, I am going to focus on the structure in these scenarios.

Of course, all HPs are different, and there is a continuum of “how HP” the storm is. The important thing is to be especially careful on the days with the highest parameters, particularly extreme CAPE / high dews / low LCLs, the types of days where the large, complex monsters with multiple areas of rotation become likely, setups like El Reno and Lawrence.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I stay far far away from HP's. I don't want anything to do with them. I will either look for a better storm to chase, or I will head home. Give me a good classic, or better yet a nice sculpted LP and I'm happy! I think @Warren Faidley would agree with this.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I should say I don't avoid HP's 100% of the time. They are higher risk, mentally exhausting and low reward for me. I usually stay tucked into the SW quad and hope for a morph, e.g., HP to Classic or another fun event (hail, lightning, flooding, etc.) Occasionally, tornadoes are visible from this vantage point, but they are usually low contrast. I once lucked out with a HP near Lubbock when a crazy landspout dropped out of the flaking line. The traffic jams now days, totally solified my desire to limit HP interceptions. Since I'm big on EMS volunteering now days, I have no problem blowing off a storm if I can assist with a disaster, although I don't follow storms to find a disaster. There are **usually** secondary targets on big HP days, especially if you can predict when and where the flow offers classic or LP cells. I have nothing against chasers who want to pursue HP cells, but as someone once told me, "Chase to live another day as there will always be a better storm."

 

[JamesCaruso]

Offering an addendum to my previous post (since it’s too late to edit) with thoughts after seeing the posts by @Jason Boggs and @Warren Faidley , I am similar to Warren, it’s hard for me to say I will just stay far away from HPs and have nothing to do with them. After all, isn’t it statistically true that HPs are by far the most prevalent form of supercell? On a two-week chase vacation that some years may only have as few as three to five chase days, to say I am going to totally avoid HPs would mean hardly chasing at all in some years. I don’t think I would be happy with a chase trip if all I had to show for it were a few structure shots from far outside of an HP. I am not contradicting my earlier post, I still would not be aggressive, I am just saying that I wouldn’t bail completely and, depending upon the “degree” of HP, I might be more inclined to stay in the SW quadrant as Warren said. Again I think it’s important to emphasize that not all HPs are created equal. There is a continuum from classic to HP in terms of exactly how much precipitation there is, and how strong and complex the storm is or has the potential to become based upon the parameter space. This, as well as chase outcomes on earlier days and other chase opportunities the same day or subsequent days, would all influence my strategy on a given day or a given storm. But I will always err on being more conservative.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Very valid points @JamesCaruso @Warren Faidley and @Jason Boggs . While I’ve always been a little more cautious while running the tours, I’ve certainly “played” in the notch on many HPs. 2013 was different however and I started to really try and evaluate what the risks were (even if I was chasing alone/not on tour).

We all know that all storms are different including HPs so I guess it depends on the storm/situation.
But I suspect I throw more caution this coming season.

 

[Paul Knightley]

I stay far far away from HP's. I don't want anything to do with them. I will either look for a better storm to chase, or I will head home. Give me a good classic, or better yet a nice sculpted LP and I'm happy! I think @Warren Faidley would agree with this.

I've chased (like many of us, I'm sure) quite a few HP supercells over the years - and very few have given a huge amount back to me. Like Jason and others, I will try not to get involved with them! Of course, it's easier said than done - for me, anyway. I tend to stick with them if there's nothing else around, but will often get ahead of them to try to pick out some structure shots, if any are to be had.

When I set out chasing back in the '90s, there were precious few materials to draw on - now there are lots. What there was, I read voraciously - and one main point which stuck in my mind (and was said to me by other chasers I'd met): HPs are dangerous! All the advice was to get out of their way. Now folks seem to routinely go right inside, confident on the radar's ability (and their own) to show where the danger is. My own personal observations of HP storms testify to the fact that they do 'things' very rapidly, at times - especially throwing out fast-moving RFDs which engulf you before you know it, removing situational awareness.

I'm not going to try to teach anyone to suck eggs - but advances in in-car information haven't changed how dangerous HP storms can be.

Stay safe, folks.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It's also important to remember that a maturing HP is not a contained object moving at an exact speed. Precipitation, hail shafts, downdrafts, outflows, tornadoes, mesocyclones and other features can suddenly develop or accelerate much faster than noted "storm speeds" at any given time. Positioning miscalculations, based on storm speeds alone could be the reason some chasers have been overtaken by storms in recent years. This is only exaggerated once you enter precipitation and lose all visual references. I think we have all used storm speed estimates to calculate our routes, only to find we suddenly need an east option.

 

[Jeff Lieberman]

It's also important to remember that a maturing HP is not a contained object moving at an exact speed. Precipitation, hail shafts, downdrafts, outflows, tornadoes, mesocyclones and other features can suddenly develop or accelerate much faster than noted "storm speeds" at any given time. Positioning miscalculations, based on storm speeds alone could be the reason some chasers have been overtaken by storms in recent years. This is only exaggerated once you enter precipitation and lose all visual references.

In just 5 storm chasing tours, I’ve had 2 harrowing experiences with HP supercells. In June 2015, a rain-wrapped tornado from an HP cell turned and accelerated, coming within a few hundred yards of us before we saw it and were able to race out of the way. A scary moment since I could see it gaining on us. (In addition, a satellite formed near the main tornado.) And this year, we wound up trapped between a hail core to our north and rain-wrapped circulation - which contained a tornado - to our south, with no paved escape routes to the east. So the risk is high, the benefits low. I only saw the tornado that hit us on May 28 for 2 seconds, and, even then, it was nothing more than a swirling shadow behind a thick curtain of rain.