Silver Lining Tours vans rolled in Kansas

[Quincy Vagell]

This thread has been derailing in recent weeks, even if some of what's being posted has already been used in legal actions/proceedings and I would be shocked if other posts are not going to be used in future litigation.

I almost wonder if we need to start another thread in the Bear's Cage subforum for some of the divergent discussion. There are some individuals who have very passionate opinions about this situation, including myself, but I would encourage everyone to try to be respectful, fair and stay on topic. I don't know what the right solution is, but if you feel that you have something important to say, you should be able to say it. With the caveat that it must be said in the appropriate place.

I'm not sure this thread is the most appropriate place to air grievances and/or cite past actions by individual(s) that may or may not be relevant to the incident in discussion. This is a news forum and I would think that only events, information and other outcome(s) regarding the specific incident on May 28th, 2019 are appropriate in this thread.

I am not speaking for the moderators, but I would think that posts that are off-topic or posts that break Stormtrack.org Terms of Service can and have already been deleted from this thread. I am not questioning this move and the moderators have a duty to ensure that threads stay on-topic and don't break Terms of Service.

 

[Quincy Vagell]

1) Looking at the road network from near Lone Star Lake and the “east option” - it appears the east option turned into a road nightmare ultimately ending up in gravel roads with only a north/south options. For those that took this east option, what was the experience like? In other words, was it truly a safe and viable option in your opinions?
I believe @Quincy Vagell you went east correct? I’m trying to get a bearing on the exacts of this option because it would appear that the entire northern convergence and associated mesocyclone with a non tornadic RFD (at that point) and ultimate LARGE TORNADO engulfed the area just to the east. I mention this because I do not know if going east would have been an option that I would have personally chosen — given the fact that you would be placing yourself into an even worse position? The east option would have left me little to no room for error due to the road network. I would have not chosen this option.

At 5:55 p.m., I turned north on County Road 1029 near Globe, KS. It began to rain heavily and visibility was obscured to the west, so within a minute of travelining less than one block north, I stopped to pull off the road.

Shortly after stopping, I continued north (about 5:57 p.m.) and within one block, realized that based on what I saw on radar and around me, I needed to immediately shift eastward. There was no time or safe reason for myself to turn back south. As a general rule, I don't make a U-turn, unless I am driving toward a storm that is moving toward me, and that 180 degree change of direction would take me in the fastest path away from the storm.

At approximately 5:59 p.m., I passed the point at which the first tornado would cross County Road 1029 only about 3 minutes later.

At 6:01 p.m., I turned east onto North 600 road, as this was going to be the most efficient and least dangerous maneuver given the situation approaching from the west, visibility and storm motion/movement.

I continued east on what was a gravel road, but given the severity of the situation, I would rather drive away from the tornadic storm on a gravel road, than turn around and drive back through a rain-wrapped mess on a paved road. This gravel road was of what I would consider good quality and much better than most dirt roads, in Kansas, for example, that I have used to maneuver in close proximity to a tornado.

Within 10 minutes, at 6:11 p.m., I was entirely out of the rain and observed a large, rain-wrapped tornado to my immediate northwest.

For a large rain-wrapped HP supercell, rapidly moving ENE/NE, the only option I ever considered was to go east. Driving west was not an option. North was not an option and turning back around south would be driving back into a rain-wrapped, near zero visibility mess, which would have continued for the duration of the way back to U.S. 56, then it would have taken more time to drive out of the rain, once traveling eastbound on U.S. 56. Not to mention, the amount of time lost making a safe U-turn would have been factored into the time used.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well said Quincy. When Jeff Duda locked the thread temporarily, I reached out to him privately and asked him to reconsider. Jeff reopened the thread; I’m not saying he did it just because I asked him to, but AnthonyJ didn’t do me any favors when he made it look like a bad idea with his rant. I completely understand the mods deleting the Joplin references as OT, not to mention many of the points about Joplin didn’t even make sense (I read it before the mod edits) - ranting about being in tornado watches and warnings?!? Isn’t that what chasers are supposed to do?!? Anyway, good idea to have an offshoot in The Bear’s Cage and leave this thread for debating May 28, not Joplin. I understand the point about patterns of behavior etc., but the point of this thread is to understand what happened on May 28 and learn lessons from that specific event.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I sincerely hope this thread remains open. I do not believe in removing posts as that has a "censored" air to it. We need transparency. I might suggest to the moderators that instead of locking it down, repeat offenders be removed for 24-48 hours. (No offense). I want to follow this story, but I think we have officially reached the "beating the dead horse" stage. At some point this will be resolved legally and / or otherwise. The other option would be to start a "new information" ONLY thread.

 

[Mark Blue]

Posts that are in direct violation of the rules will be removed whether it feels like censorship or not. Everyone stop replying to the garbage posts and please just ignore anyone who trolls you. The thread was closed for all of a few hours Friday and as soon as it was reopened the bickering started again. Once you have one bad post with six people who respond in kind you end up with 7 posts that need to be deleted. Help us out and we’ll stay out of your business.

 

[Darren Addy]

What a thread. Just a couple of observations that are only loosely related:

1) Just like the old expression "it's turtles all the way down" ( Turtles all the way down - Wikipedia ) stormchasing tours are RISK all the way down. The customers are putting themselves, by choice, in a far riskier situation than if they had stayed home. They are putting themselves in the hands of a "pilot" who, while experienced, is only human and has probably not experienced EVERYTHING that a meteorological setup has to offer. The Tour Company is assuming risk in that they expect that their income is going to exceed their expenses. They are financially incentivized to attract customers (by their dollars) and to minimize their accidents (by their insurance premiums and the threat of lawsuits). If they fail to do this they will cease to be solvent tour companies. The insurance companies who underwrite tour companies are assuming risk and also expect that the premiums paid in will exceed any moneys that need to be paid on claims. If they fail to do this they will cease to be solvent insurance companies.

2) Common sense would say that stormchasing tours are simply another manifestation of capitalism: Profiting from satisfying a demand that exists (or can be created) in the marketplace. They are subject to the rules of capitalism in another way: If accidents are expensive for them, then they will need to raise prices to cover the costs associated. As long as the market bears those price increases (they continue to sell out) then they will continue to be in business.

3) SLT business/bookings seems to be doing fine for 2020.
2020 Storm Chase Tour Schedule -
As I surmised earlier, this incident probably only enhanced their position as the preeminent Tour Company for people who WANT to have the closest of encounters (that is not snark AT ALL - just recognizing the range of risk-taking types attracted to stormchasing tours in the first place). I have no idea if anything has changed for them (2020 vs 2019) such as higher prices, numbers of seats available, etc. In fact would not surprise me to learn that some of those injured have settled, at least partially in return for vouchers that can be used for a free seat in future tours.

4) Stormchasing (and stormchasing tours) have a lot in common with climbing Mt. Everest, including concerns that it is becoming too popular, leading to dangerous overcrowding on the trails, that it needs more regulation, etc. ( A Mount Everest record-holder says summit 'traffic jams' aren’t the problem — it’s the trek down that kills people ) People understand that they risk death when they go there (and put themselves in the hands of a sherpa with experience - but that experience does not guarantee that even the sherpa will survive the next attempt).

5) Common sense has very little to do with the "justice system", for which actual justice is only an occasional fringe benefit. It mainly exists to draw headlines and keep public order through threat. And it is its own economic engine, keeping lawyers, judges and support staff gainfully employed. Everybody (including the injured) will have a much better outcome if they can avoid a long protracted battle in the courts. Personal injury lawyers have their own motivations and will be pushing litigation "we only get paid if YOU do". The injured should understand that most lawyers get a much smaller percent (generally in the neighborhood of 30%) if the case is settled prior to going to trial. Their fees jump to the neighborhood of 50% of any amounts awarded once it goes to trial.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I've published an analysis of the events surrounding Silver Lining Tour's tornado impact from 28 May. Hopefully this sheds light on the incident, and helps prevent future tragedies. I'd like to thank many of you who contributed videos and also provided feedback in this thread that helped direct the discussion. This presentation is the culmination of hundreds of hours of effort. Several of the tour's clients graciously offered videos, photos, and detailed accounts, without which this presentation wouldn't have been possible.

 

[Peter Potvin]

I've published an analysis of the events surrounding Silver Lining Tour's tornado impact from 28 May. Hopefully this sheds light on the incident, and helps prevent future tragedies. I'd like to thank many of you who contributed videos and also provided feedback in this thread that helped direct the discussion. This presentation is the culmination of hundreds of hours of effort. Several of the tour's clients graciously offered videos, photos, and detailed accounts, without which this presentation wouldn't have been possible.

@Skip Talbot,

Once again, you've gone and hit the nail on its head. Your analysis of this event really helps those who aren't familiar with chasing learn about the risks that storm chasers take when out chasing, and goes to show how even those with lots of experience and knowledge can mess up.

I can agree that it helps to have the SLT guests and other chasers share their experiences during this event, as that adds credibility to your analysis. Without those experiences being shared, it's nothing but a single person's point-of-view which could look bad on that person, which in this case it would've been you if you didn't have them.

In my opinion, seconds matter while chasing. SLT could've made some better decisions in regards to their positioning, but they may not have known at the time that the decisions they were making weren't the best ones. I can see why there is a lot of criticizing of SLT because of the injuries that their guests occurred, but mistakes do happen. I believe this is why storm chasing tours have their guests sign waivers before they attend the tour, because of the risks that apply in these kinds of situations.

Again, great job on the analysis, Skip. Keep doing what you do best!

 

[B. Dean Berry]

Skip Talbot is basically storm chasing's private forensic investigator. Excellent content, as usual.

Now, waiting to see how long it takes for SLT's lawyer to start sending out C&D letters. I'll put a fiver on 7 to 10 days.

 

[James Wilson]

Outstanding work Skip thank you for putting this together I know this required a lot of hours.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Excellent presentation. Fair and honest.

 

[John Farley]

Great job, Skip! Thanks for all your work on this.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Here's another thing that concerns me...at 15:10 in the video, is that one of the SLT vans popping out of the rain with NO LIGHTS ON?! Whoever that is, they're lucky the car waiting at the stop sign (if they were a fellow chaser, no doubt antsy to punch it due to the approaching "bear") didn't miss them coming and drive out right into their path. The van likely would have then slammed that car right into the camera car.

 

[Jeff Lieberman]

Skip, on behalf of those of us whose lives were upended that day, thank you for all the hard work you put into this project. SLT hasn't been transparent or forthcoming with information (other than trying to convince us we'd been hit by a small satellite tornado that couldn't have been predicted or avoided), so it's nice (and also disturbing) to finally find out what happened to us.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I've wonder how much does the concern for physical damage, and loss of potential chase days figure into the flight to the south? I've played the notch, but it was with a vehicle I couldn't care about, and it was against some urges I had built into my head when chasing with other vehicles about trying to protect the car above all else from hail damage and flee south away from the hail. I could also see a similar concern about missed chase days in the future as a tour. When I provided a guide service, it was absolute torture when we had to get a vehicle serviced due to unrelated damage, and miss a chase day. It's hard to make the appropriate calculation in the heat of the moment. I would not be surprised if that could make you improperly place hail damage concerns over physical safety concerns.