Jeff Miller
EF5
As the new hydro outlooks were issued today, I was taking a glance at the current moisture projection here, and could not help but make some observations:
It seems to me on a casual glance that we have the makings of a very active spring season. Here are my thoughts:
Persistant drought conditions in western New Mexico, Arizona and California should create low dewpoints and very dry air advection in these areas. At the same time, high levels of moisture due to an active season over the Plains (Texas especially, as many parts of Texas have been deluged with heavy rains) will increase the dewpoints in these areas, especially as the foilage blooms and greens in these areas.
A second area of drought conditions will produce dry air as well over Wyoming, Western Nebraska and Western South Dakota. And as is the case down south, there has been heavy snowfalls in the latter part of the winter in these same areas which should provide more than sufficient moisture for evapotranspiration as the season wears on.
These two factors ALONE indicate to me the potential for significant dryline setups in both the southern and northern plains as the dry air from the drought stricken areas advects east into the moist air from both gulf return and soil moisture. These indicate to me what is unavoidably a far different setup then last year no matter how you slice it.
I am just focusing on this element - unusually dry air due to drought conditions in the west with quite moist air due to frequent and precipitable systems in the Plains.
I am seeking opinion as to the other elements that could interact with the potential dryline activity that the above graph indicates - and if your opinion has changed one way or the other about the upcoming season in a forecast perspective. I am also seeking opinions on if there is expected to be a change in the overall storm track - currently being intense southern stream systems - what one would expect to see this time of year. And as an aftertought: With the abundance of dry air available to the west, should we expect to see more LP variety storms this year in your opinions.
It seems to me on a casual glance that we have the makings of a very active spring season. Here are my thoughts:
Persistant drought conditions in western New Mexico, Arizona and California should create low dewpoints and very dry air advection in these areas. At the same time, high levels of moisture due to an active season over the Plains (Texas especially, as many parts of Texas have been deluged with heavy rains) will increase the dewpoints in these areas, especially as the foilage blooms and greens in these areas.
A second area of drought conditions will produce dry air as well over Wyoming, Western Nebraska and Western South Dakota. And as is the case down south, there has been heavy snowfalls in the latter part of the winter in these same areas which should provide more than sufficient moisture for evapotranspiration as the season wears on.
These two factors ALONE indicate to me the potential for significant dryline setups in both the southern and northern plains as the dry air from the drought stricken areas advects east into the moist air from both gulf return and soil moisture. These indicate to me what is unavoidably a far different setup then last year no matter how you slice it.
I am just focusing on this element - unusually dry air due to drought conditions in the west with quite moist air due to frequent and precipitable systems in the Plains.
I am seeking opinion as to the other elements that could interact with the potential dryline activity that the above graph indicates - and if your opinion has changed one way or the other about the upcoming season in a forecast perspective. I am also seeking opinions on if there is expected to be a change in the overall storm track - currently being intense southern stream systems - what one would expect to see this time of year. And as an aftertought: With the abundance of dry air available to the west, should we expect to see more LP variety storms this year in your opinions.
Last edited by a moderator: