Invest 92L

[Josh Morgerman]

This is that big area of disturbed weather just E of the Bahamas-- the one that some of the models develop into a significant cyclone. The initialization point is 25N 74.1W, and the available guidance seems to take it WSW, across FL, into the Gulf, to near the Yucatan. The GFS seems a bit less bullish than yesterday-- however, the SHIPS makes it a strong (Cat-2) hurricane.

Definitely something to watch!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

OK! The 11:30 am EDT TWO has gotten a tad bullish with this one. This is actually very aggressive language for the normally super-conservative NHC Outlooks. Check this out!

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

Sounds pretty cool. I'm getting kind of excited...

 

[cdcollura]

Finally ... Let's all keep an eye on it.

Maybe we can get a "Asian / W Pacific trend" started on our side of the planet.

Yes, NHC had NEGATIVE remarks at 5 AM then all of a sudden changed suggesting formation in a POSITIVE sense at 11 AM.

Anticyclone forming above the system too as we speak.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The latest model runs seem a little less enthused about this system's development prospects-- kind of a buzzkill! Who knows? It could just be typical model flip-flopping. Let's see.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Models will flip-flop far more frequently on tropical systems due to their smaller scale, especially when developing.

Wait for the TD stage then things will be more dependant on upper air patterns than anything else (to shear or not to shear).

 

[MClarkson]

good good... this is what needed to happen. The convection stayed firing off the bahamas and hopefully will organize a surface low under the upper high that most of the models had progged for the south florida area for the next couple days. The upper evolution isnt nearly perfect, but it is certainly better than we had been seeing for invest 90 over the last couple days.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well... Models aside, just the sheer persistence of all this convection E of the Bahamas these last few days makes one feel something is trying to form in there. The area has been festering for days now.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Although recent EIR imagery indicated a braod upper trough, the primary area of concern along the low axis seems to be under a bit of northwesterly shear.

If a sfc low center can develop, through some vigorous deep convection, closer to the Bahamas themselves, then I think we could see some development. It just doesn't seem like the deep convection is in the lowest shear region.

I'll be watching it for sure. Models are not in very good agreement and wont be until something that is more easily initialized forms (ie. an tighter closed sfc circulation).

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

I'm more worried about that huge High sitting off the Atlantic that is going to be messing this system up. Rigth now the CMC is the only one that is saying wow but that thing spits out Hurricanes left and right past 48 hours. The latest GFS, UKM, GFDL and WRF show this thing going poof in the Gulf. But just have to wait and see what happenes as soon as it hits the gulf.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm more worried about that huge High sitting off the Atlantic that is going to be messing this system up. Rigth now the CMC is the only one that is saying wow but that thing spits out Hurricanes left and right past 48 hours. The latest GFS, UKM, GFDL and WRF show this thing going poof in the Gulf. But just have to wait and see what happenes as soon as it hits the gulf.

I noticed that insane 00Z Canadian run. The isobars are so close together it just becomes a black smudge. The Canadian is like cocaine for hurricane chasers.

Have you checked the 06Z GFDL? It actually gets very bullish about the system again.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

I noticed that insane 00Z Canadian run. The isobars are so close together it just becomes a black smudge. The Canadian is like cocaine for hurricane chasers.

Have you checked the 06Z GFDL? It actually gets very bullish about the system again.

Honestly, I don't buy it. GFDL has kind of been way off this season. CMC has been good for where stuff may form but past 48 hours its junk IMO. The rest of the models, well, they kind of have been sucking too until a real system forms.

Until a system gets fired up with an eye, I pretty much ignore them since their really nothing yet to even get hyped up over. It is just like seeing a slight risk with a 5% tornado on the 0Z, then all that happens is a messy MCS with flooding rains and not much else.

Granted it is fun to say, something might be coming but when you look at it and all of the other systems that were suppose to do something, it is waste of time. But I'm not just talking about wish-casting on here or the other boards. Even TWC was doing that a couple weeks ago with the TD that came into North Florida. Hyped up like it was a hurricane and honestly, there was better weather in the midwest.

I think that this latest system will be just like so many others that will be looked at as the next big thing then nothing happens.

 

[cdcollura]

Once again we are reminded that it's 2007, and to see a REAL tropical cyclone, we have to go to the other side of the World (aka: Asia) or the south Carribbean's 3rd world death traps a month or two ago.

92L is looking like sh_t this morning. Doug K - Make sure your air tanks are filled and let me know if you see than northern Pike again.

I give up on 2007. Let's see what 2008 brings, or sink my accident settlement into a ticket to Taiwan / Tokyo or something for 2 months.

Non-supercell SHEAR sucks...

Above: Hurricane Season 2007's last word S-H-E-A-R

I bet many "cumulus" towers across the Bahamas / Caribbean right now look like this (above).

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Would you guys please let me enjoy my fantasies in peace?

Seriously, it does look like crap this morning-- and I'm once again annoyed with myself for spending so much energy following a cluster of convection! I'm not giving up on it-- but I certainly won't hold my breath about it, either.

 

[cdcollura]

Yeah, I know Josh - I kick myself from not joining you in Dean.

I thought there would be more, oh well...

Interesting to see "air" at about 40,000 feet blasting out of the northwest and shearing 92 L to shreds -- Thanks to a mid-atlantic ocean trough becoming positively tilted and amplifying regardless of any models.

Also interesting to see that the same "air" that was over Toronto, Canada around 18-24 hours ago is now over 92 L ;-(

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Ugh, it's all so frustrating, isn't it? I hate this waiting game-- and I dread the idea of not chasing another 'cane until next year. I'm really craving it right now.

Still... it's only 04 October, and there's been so much good October action in the W Caribbean during the last twenty years-- i.e., Cat-4 landfalls in Mexico and Belize, etc. Something's got to happen.