Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

[Forrest lambert]

Tropical-Storm Noel Location: 16.5 N 71.8 W Winds: 50 MPH Movement: NNW @ 5 MPH


They are only talking about it getting to a cat-1 at some point, i thought the waters down south are still pretty warm for further devolpment!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Tropical-Storm Noel Location: 16.5 N 71.8 W Winds: 50 MPH Movement: NNW @ 5 MPH


They are only talking about it getting to a cat-1 at some point, i thought the waters down south are still pretty warm for further devolpment!

The waters are plenty warm down there. That's not the problem with this one. It's shear and now interaction with land.

 

[David Drummond]

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[cdcollura]

OK, we were CRYING all this remainder of 2007 and now we finally have a storm.

Now, the motion is an issue ... I do not think anyone can chase in Cuba?

After that, the famous right-hand turn we all agonized in the 1980's over so many times happens - This 2007 season is a C_ck tease!

There IS indeed a reason I threw this season out the window a month or two ago ;-(

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Now, the motion is an issue ... I do not think anyone can chase in Cuba?

Cuba will be some terrific chase turf one day, when relations between Cuba and the USA are normalized.

For now, it's difficult place for an American to visit on short notice because of requirements on both sides: the U.S. Government requires you to apply for a license to visit (Americans are not permitted to go there and spend money except for very specific reasons) and once you have that, then you need to apply for an entry visa with the Cubans. Naturally, none of this can happen quickly enough for chasing a hurricane.

I actually visited Havana in 1987, as a teenager. I was touring with a youth orchestra and was allowed entry on a special artistic visa.

It's a shame, because the S coast of Cuba would be some amazing chase turf. Some day.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Well, you can chase in Cuba, if your not from America. Any chaser from Canada can go to Cuba.

And you can chase in Cuba if you first fly to Mexico then pay cash for a round trip ticket to Cuba but be ready for a $10,000.00 fine from the US Government if your picked up on a camera at the airport while getting off the plane. From what I have heard from some of my diving friends, people have gone to Cuba to scuba dive but when they get off the plane in Mexico, the face recognition cameras will match you up to your passport photos.

Anyway's, back to the forecast talk. Just looking at this system and yes it is not the best setup but it's in the same area as Ernesto was last year. The sheer on Noel is not good but there is still some hope for it after it passes Cuba. Remember we have to wait for these storms to get their act together before we really get excited. Right now it is just a mess. When we start seeing an eye, then it's time to go in hype mode. It's still in the WTF is this thing going to do mode.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well, you can chase in Cuba, if your not from America. Any chaser from Canada can go to Cuba.

Yeah, my comments were specifically Re: Americans. I don't know how it works with citizens of other countries.

And you can chase in Cuba if you first fly to Mexico then pay cash for a round trip ticket to Cuba but be ready for a $10,000.00 fine from the US Government if your picked up on a camera at the airport while getting off the plane. From what I have heard from some of my diving friends, people have gone to Cuba to scuba dive but when they get off the plane in Mexico, the face recognition cameras will match you up to your passport photos.

Anyway's, back to the forecast talk. Just looking at this system and yes it is not the best setup but it's in the same area as Ernesto was last year. The sheer on Noel is not good but there is still some hope for it after it passes Cuba. Remember we have to wait for these storms to get their act together before we really get excited. Right now it is just a mess. When we start seeing an eye, then it's time to go in hype mode. It's still in the WTF is this thing going to do mode.

I think it can possibly pull together, but I don't see it making it far enough W or being strong enough to make a worthwhile chase subject once it clears Cuba. That's just my opinion.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I am trying to add to the debate on the future track of Noel but for the time being I am stuck! Noel seems to have STALLED and is not moving anywhere (Going by Sat images) We need to see the results of the second RECKON flight (going in at 03z) in order to fix the centre again and determine direction.

Ether way... I would not look at even the NHC forecast track right now with any certainty - there are so many variables with each and every one providing a different solution.

FYI - I can go to Cuba

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I am trying to add to the debate on the future track of Noel but for the time being I am stuck! Noel seems to have STALLED and is not moving anywhere (Going by Sat images) We need to see the results of the second RECKON flight (going in at 03z) in order to fix the centre again and determine direction.

Ether way... I would not look at even the NHC forecast track right now with any certainty - there are so many variables with each and every one providing a different solution.

I'm basing my opinions not just on the NHC track but also on the model guidance, which shows a spread but generally keeps the storm E of the USA. (The models that do bring it to FL have it traversing the full length of Cuba prior to that-- which would preclude a strong system upon arrival in the USA.) And then there's the setup and the time of year: beyond Cuba, I have a hard time imagining it intensifying into a quality, pure-tropical cyclone in or E of the Bahamas as it's getting scooped up by a trough and shot NE at the end of October. The best chance for an intense hurricane with this would be W motion into the NW Caribbean, and that path seems unlikely. (Trust me, I would love to be wrong!!)

The stalling this evening is interesting. I suppose it's better than continued NNW motion. Perhaps it'll turn back W.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

FYI - I can go to Cuba

That's pretty cool, and I will confess a twinge of envy-- however, I imagine it won't be really good chase turf for anyone until it's a free country. In its current state, I'm having trouble imagining the kinds of facilities that a chaser needs: a good mobile network, widely available Internet services, and decent rental cars and roads.

But perhaps you should try it and report your findings to the group.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Ether way... I would not look at even the NHC forecast track right now with any certainty - there are so many variables with each and every one providing a different solution.

Totally, it is way too early in the game to say what Noel is going to do. If you look at the historical data, like what WeatherUnderground has put together, you can really get a good idea of the big picture of what could and what has happened.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200716_climo.html#a_topad

I think I need to change my signature "In the media, you can hype it but you can never depend on Animals, Children and THE WEATHER"

 

[Josh Morgerman]

To clarify, I'm not suggesting it's at all certain what Noel is going to do. What I am saying is that none of the plausible outcomes seem desirable. But again, I would love to be wrong-- I would kill for a chase right now.

An Iris or Lili track would be cool-- but those were early-October cyclones. Methinks such W tracks are climatologically less likely this late in the season. (Kate 1985 is a very important exception.)

Anyway, I feel like I'm being the buzzkiller in this discussion, so I'll shut up now!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

OT: Josh - no worse than chasing in Taiwan.. Actually Cuba is quite a big Holiday destination for us Brits - many modern hotels etc (so I am told) Overall I believe that Cuba is chasable.

Any way back to business - SHIPS has just come in and ramps Noel up to just over 80 knots between 48 and 96 hours. Movement is slow and there does seem to be a more Westward trend now in the track - we will have to wait until the morning to see if the other models turn this way as well. I guess that SHIPS keeps Noel over water for longer – hence the increase in intensity.

Ether way - I now firmly believe that we are looking at a serious flooding event about to unfold over Haiti. Sadly for this part of the world deaths from flash flooding and mud landslides are measured in the Hundreds

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Ok, the BAMM, GFS, and GFDL are pretty much in agreement that this thing is going to be lame and go almost north now over the worst mountain area possible and then get pulled out to sea. Sorry folks but this one is yet another forecasting training lesson for a storm. Even the NHC 5 day does not show any chances of hurricane forming out of this one.

Well, just be thankful you don't have any sponsors to answer too, tour customers that prepaid for a hurricane, or customers that you pre sold DVD's of your hurricane chases, and then... nothing happened. But that is a subject for another topic that would be best suited for the ST-B&G. So just be thankful that your just not seeing the storms and don't have to answer to anyone.

 

[Rob Lightbown]

It is quite possible that Noel could be a bigger threat (and stronger??) as a extratropical storm than as a tropical storm. Euro and Canadian models prog a very intense storm impacting New England and the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. Hydro Prediction Center is going with this solution in their forecast: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif

Rob Lightbown
http://www.crownweather.com