Invest 93L

[Charles Loring]

If there is any good news out of all this is that the models have consistently moved the tracks westward. The models are kind of 50/50 on where it goes when entering the Gulf again. Some take it up towards NO while others take it into TX.

I am feeling the TX track more so than any of the others...

 

[Jason Harris]

well, to answer my previous question regarding the AEMI, I was referred to this via Florida Tech's tropical storm specialist from a powerpoint given from NWS. . . and found on slide 18:

In strong flow regimes, errors in the initial conditions will dominate. Ensembles of the same model with varying initial conditions are effective.
GFS ensemble (AEMI) has little hurricane track skill

powerpoint from: : [email protected]

few links at end:
Upcoming VISIT Tropical Training Sessionshttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_tropical.html

NHC Forecast Model Background & Informationhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
Tropical Cyclone Predictionwww.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/ch11/obs_anl_pred_11_5.html
An Overview of NHC Prediction Modelswww.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm