Invest 93L

[evan anderson]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Hey guys, forgive me if I am wrong but simply cutting and pasting the latest outlooks from the NHC isn't proper. Please add more substance to your posts. This thread should be fore forecast and impact discussions and not just a place to repost the NHC's public products.

As for 93L it looks like the hunters are out in it right now and I wouldn't be shocked to hear that this thing has already become a TD. The center of circulation is a bit close to Honduras but is still out at sea. It's still too far out to tell what will happen of course but the NAM still has it as a named storm in the GOM and the models are starting to come together to show this heading towards the E TX/ LA coast. I doubt this will become a named storm before it reaches the Yucatan but once it makes it to the GOM I fear this will become a major impact on the oil spill clean up efforts.

 

[Jason Harris]

Yep, it's now TD 1 and most models seem to keep it alive after the Yucatan, and look at the AEMI, a double landfall in LA and MS. How reliable has AEMI been comp. to other models?
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark1latest.png

 

[Randall Marable]

Tropical Depression #1

Hey guys, forgive me if I am wrong but simply cutting and pasting the latest outlooks from the NHC isn't proper. Please add more substance to your posts. This thread should be fore forecast and impact discussions and not just a place to repost the NHC's public products.

LOL...No you're not wrong Bart. I already know this. It's just I haven't had time to post anything else in the last few days. I should have alot more time the next few days though. Sorry for the lack of discussions. And yes we do officially have Tropical Depression #1 of the 2010 Hurricane Season.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

TD #1 has formed as of the 5 PM advisory.

 

[rdale]

Good day all,

TD #1 has formed as of the 5 PM advisory.

Thought I heard that somewhere

Yep, it's now TD 1

Please add more substance to your posts. This thread should be fore forecast and impact discussions and not just a place to repost the NHC's public products.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Hey guys, forgive me if I am wrong but simply cutting and pasting the latest outlooks from the NHC isn't proper. Please add more substance to your posts. This thread should be fore forecast and impact discussions and not just a place to repost the NHC's public products.

LOL...No you're not wrong Bart. I already know this. It's just I haven't had time to post anything else in the last few days. I should have alot more time the next few days though. Sorry for the lack of discussions. And yes we do officially have Tropical Depression #1 of the 2010 Hurricane Season.

If you don't have time to write out a post please don't just copy and paste public products. If I already had my moderation powers (which I get in 5 days) I would have removed your posts. I'm not trying to be mean just trying to remind you of the rules.

It will be interesting to watch what this storm willdo once it is in the GOM. None of the modles have it getting to hurricane streangth yet but Ihonestly don't see why we couldn't see the soon to be named Alex making it to a hurricane before it reaches land. It will be interesting to see if some of the projected paths that have it heading towards LA hold true for if they do that will give it plenty of warm water to cross and strengthen over.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If you don't have time to write out a post please don't just copy and paste public products. If I already had my moderation powers (which I get in 5 days) I would have removed your posts. I'm not trying to be mean just trying to remind you of the rules.

For the record, the moderators are discussing adding a rule that disallows the copy/paste of NHC products in the Tropical Weather forum. As of now, however, the "no copy/paste-only posts" rule only applies in the Target Area forums (FCST/NOW/DISC/REPORTS). Note that the description of this forum includes the following: "Target area rules do not apply". No mod actions could be taken on the two posts in this thread that only contain NHC products since there are no rules against it here (Tropical Weather and Hurricanes forum) right now. That's going to change very soon, however, probably within the next 5 days. So, by the time you come on board, you certainly will have grounds to do what you suggested in the post quoted above.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

TD1 has been called - interesting output from the GFDL which actually makes TD1 into a CAT1 hurricane before landfall in Texas next week.

Overall I am not sure how much will remain after the passage over land...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Update!

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

 

[Charles Loring]

If there is any good news out of all this is that the models have consistently moved the tracks westward. The models are kind of 50/50 on where it goes when entering the Gulf again. Some take it up towards NO while others take it into TX.

I am feeling the TX track more so than any of the others...

 

[Jason Harris]

well, to answer my previous question regarding the AEMI, I was referred to this via Florida Tech's tropical storm specialist from a powerpoint given from NWS. . . and found on slide 18:

In strong flow regimes, errors in the initial conditions will dominate. Ensembles of the same model with varying initial conditions are effective.
GFS ensemble (AEMI) has little hurricane track skill

powerpoint from: : [email protected]

few links at end:
Upcoming VISIT Tropical Training Sessionshttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/topic_tropical.html

NHC Forecast Model Background & Informationhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
Tropical Cyclone Predictionwww.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/ch11/obs_anl_pred_11_5.html
An Overview of NHC Prediction Modelswww.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm