Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

Keeping fingers crossed for shear to relax as forecast.

I am sure if that happens, something will pop up (has not had the chance the past 3-4 weeks as it's head kept being "blown-off" trying to do so).
 
Here's the latest (11:30 am EDT) TWO. The immediate prospects look better for the feature in the C Caribbean that HAltschule mentioned:

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND PRIMARILY DISPLACED TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT UPPER-LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
I see the latest EC model is showing a slowly evolving large storm system over the western Caribbean over the coming weekend into next week. This model has been showing this trend over the last couple of days. At the same time there is a good chance that the 200mb winds will be quite favorable for development. The 200mb prog even has a strong outflow channel developing to the north of the system. There appears to be pretty good agreement among the global models something should develop west of Jamaica early next week. These systems typically take many days to develop in this region.
 
A quick glance at the satellite loop of the TROAL and the Caribbean show that my cocnerns have materialzed. Shear has encompassed the suspect area(s) and is ripping things apart. Thus has been the case all summer really. While the models seem bullish, we will have to see the shear relax first or all bets are off.

That said...did anyone happen to see today 18z GFS run at 264 hours? There is a hybrid or coastal gale that looks like a monster barrelling up the east coast to NYC/LI. 850mb winds are close to 50knots with the system. Should be really interesting to watch for as we get closer in time.
 
Do not trust models that far out (264 hours). They are JUST for very loose guidance.

The shear, as usual, has NOT relaxed ... Showing how lousy the tropics are on this side of the world this year once again.
 
It's now 90L. In the 11:30 am EDT TWO, the NHC indicates:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

Maybe this is our shot! :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Puerto Rico/USVI

Hi...

The pressures currently are of 1005mb at ST. Thomas and in Yabucoa (SE part of PR). The system has great inflow in the southern quadrant but the shear remains very strong at ~35kts from the WNW. Rain will be the threat here. Oh I'm sooo excited...

Jose
 
Jose,

The shear will relax over the next 24 - 48 hours and will allow this system to grow....

However, I hear that two people have already been killed during a mud slide in Puerto Rico.
 
The circulation does appear to be very resilient, quite a contrast from some of the previous invests which had very shallow and fragile circulations. Due to the resiliency of 90L, which will enable it to quickly take advantage of a window of opportunity should shear abate (and the fact I am out of town;)) I would not be surprised to see a TC form soon.
 
Rodger Heckman said:
The circulation does appear to be very resilient, quite a contrast from some of the previous invests which had very shallow and fragile circulations. Due to the resiliency of 90L, which will enable it to quickly take advantage of a window of opportunity should shear abate (and the fact I am out of town;)) I would not be surprised to see a TC form soon.
Click to expand...
:D

You in Vegas again?? Get back home! We can't have a Wilma repeat for you-- you'll go crazy.
 
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