Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

[Stuart Robinson]

Perhaps the Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet?

There is some cross model agreement that there may be a tropical system forming in the North East Caribbean within 72 hours!

Looking at current shear It looks horrendous – currently with about 40 Knots over the NE Carib. However these same models are forecasting a relaxation in the shear so who knows?

So why the interest?
The CMC show this system developing North of the Leeward’s Islands and then turning it into a CAT3 hurricane before turning South to affect the leewards. (CMC always over does things)
The NGP and the GFS actually moves this system towards Florida but only as a strong TS / weak Hurricane.

I only post this because of the support across certain models – indeed if the shear does not relax then nothing will form at all anyway.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well-- I'm glad I'm not the only one who's wistfully hoping for some last-minute action.

At this point, even a 65-kt 'cane heading toward FL would be extreme excitement.

 

[cdcollura]

Definitely.

I also looked at the untra super subspace-field invertor long-range model and a tropcial cyclone should be forming off Miami in mid August 2008.

I already took off work for that - Can't miss it (ony 297 days to go) ;-)

 

[Jim Leonard]

Stranger things have happened before. In November of 1985 what was thought the impossible happened an August/ September type of hurricane, Cat-2 eventually a cat-3 came westward north of the Greater Antilles with a forward speed sometimes as high as 18kts into the eastern GOM on November 20th and 21st, the hurricane was named "Kate". The western atlantic was in a pattern similar to what is currently occuring. A warm western atlantic high east of the SE U.S. much like you would expect in September. Not saying we will see history repeat but it has happened before even nearly a month later. Never say never.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Stranger things have happened before. In November of 1985 what was thought the impossible happened an August/ September type of hurricane, Cat-2 eventually a cat-3 came westward north of the Greater Antilles with a forward speed sometimes as high as 18kts into the eastern GOM on November 20th and 21st, the hurricane was named "Kate". The western atlantic was in a pattern similar to what is currently occuring. A warm western atlantic high east of the SE U.S. much like you would expect in September. Not saying we will see history repeat but it has happened before even nearly a month later. Never say never.

You tell 'em, Jim! I haven't totally given up yet, either. I keep thinking of Kate and Michelle.

 

[Tampa Dave]

Well-- I'm glad I'm not the only one who's wistfully hoping for some last-minute action.

At this point, even a 65-kt 'cane heading toward FL would be extreme excitement.

Right now I'd be happy with some sea breeze convection. I've got my fingers crossed for 2 possibilities: the falling pressure in the northern Caribbean & the Red Box currently located over Katrina country. Maybe by Wednesday it will hold together for Tampa. Here's to the possibilities!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

There's a pretty-good convective blob approaching the Leewards. I usually don't look there in October-- it's too far N and E-- but in light of what Stuart posted, I wonder if this might somehow be related to that possible scenario:

 

[Jim Leonard]

In case anyone has not seen the track hurricane Kate took.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/KATE/track.gif

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

The convection near the Leewards looks interesting, but upper airflow is still a problem, especially for that area this time of the year.

The trhough entering the Gulf, also plaged by fast upper winds, MIGHT show something as it's tail end enters the SW GOM / Caribbean in a couple of days.

And I do remember Kate in 1985, which was very interesting. It passed about 90-100 miles south of the FL keys BUT had a tropical-storm / gale-forced wind envelope that extended north to almost Georgia. It produced a 78 MPH wind near Miami!

Then Kate went into the Gulf and made a second chase prospect near the FL Panhandle. I was not chasing that one, I was only 16. I did manage to "chase" the winds and waves from it though ;-)

Chase log, one of my FIRST, is below for KATE (2nd entry in 1985)...

http://www.sky-chaser.com/stlog.htm#SEA1985

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Well-- I'm glad to see just a little more enthusiasm Re: this disturbance-- especially from Chris!

I remember Kate, too. I was fifteen and remember tracking it. I grew up on Long Island, NY, so our big event that year was Gloria-- it came right to my doorstep.

 

[HAltschule]

Hey Josh,

Nice observations on satellite. However, i think the leewards blob is upper level crap predominantly. I don't expect that to develop. BUT...there is a nice area of convection and cold cloud tops in the Central Caribbean (south of Cuba) that has some weak rotation with it. There also seems to be some upper level divergence too. The system is stationary. I would bet that this is going to be our next TD, TS and maybe and H. It is already there and ALL of the models have significant tropical development in that area in the next couple of days (except for the GFS). I do believe that the H season is going to produce yet again.

PS: Of interest with this same system are the upper level low to the west and the strong cold front in the northen gulf. One or both could have some negative affects on the system. But it is hard to ignore overwhelming model continuity.

PS2: I also remember Gloria from my days as a teenager in New Jersey. What a treat for us even though it wasn't too too crazy. I managed to sneak outside to check out the storm despite my father's warnings. LOL. (RIP Dad).

 

[cdcollura]

Well-- I'm glad to see just a little more enthusiasm Re: this disturbance-- especially from Chris!

I remember Kate, too. I was fifteen and remember tracking it. I grew up on Long Island, NY, so our big event that year was Gloria-- it came right to my doorstep.

LOL - Gloria was PAINFUL for me.

It was a month after I MOVED to FL with my parents - Ouch ;-(

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Hey Josh,

Nice observations on satellite. However, i think the leewards blob is upper level crap predominantly. I don't expect that to develop.

Grrrr. There's just way too much of that "upper level crap" this season-- I'm way over it already!

BUT...there is a nice area of convection and cold cloud tops in the Central Caribbean (south of Cuba) that has some weak rotation with it. There also seems to be some upper level divergence too. The system is stationary. I would bet that this is going to be our next TD, TS and maybe and H. It is already there and ALL of the models have significant tropical development in that area in the next couple of days (except for the GFS). I do believe that the H season is going to produce yet again.

PS: Of interest with this same system are the upper level low to the west and the strong cold front in the northen gulf. One or both could have some negative affects on the system. But it is hard to ignore overwhelming model continuity.

Wow, Howard-- this sounds kind of exciting, actually. I did notice this feature today, and I see it's persisting nicely tonight. I like how bullish you are about it-- and I also like how you haven't given up on the season just yet. I tell ya, I'm pretty diehard, but even I've been having trouble staying enthused this last week. It's been rough!

PS2: I also remember Gloria from my days as a teenager in New Jersey. What a treat for us even though it wasn't too too crazy. I managed to sneak outside to check out the storm despite my father's warnings. LOL. (RIP Dad).

Yup, it was a treat-- like a gift. I know what you mean Re: how hard it was too "storm chase" back then with concerned parents watching over your shoulder.

When it started barreling up the coast toward Long Island, I was just freaking out I was so excited-- just couldn't believe something so wonderful was happening. The center passed right over my town (Huntington), and I remember watching a large tree on our back lawn go down during the final peak gusts right before the eye. My mother cried-- she loved that tree-- and I felt terrible about it-- like I'd brought this upon us. What a confused teenaged weather nerd I was that day. <sigh>

 

[Tampa Dave]

Hey Josh,

Nice observations on satellite. However, i think the leewards blob is upper level crap predominantly. I don't expect that to develop. BUT...there is a nice area of convection and cold cloud tops in the Central Caribbean (south of Cuba) that has some weak rotation with it. There also seems to be some upper level divergence too. The system is stationary. I would bet that this is going to be our next TD, TS and maybe and H. It is already there and ALL of the models have significant tropical development in that area in the next couple of days (except for the GFS). I do believe that the H season is going to produce yet again.

PS: Of interest with this same system are the upper level low to the west and the strong cold front in the northen gulf. One or both could have some negative affects on the system. But it is hard to ignore overwhelming model continuity.

PS2: I also remember Gloria from my days as a teenager in New Jersey. What a treat for us even though it wasn't too too crazy. I managed to sneak outside to check out the storm despite my father's warnings. LOL. (RIP Dad).

I hope you're right! However, the ULWs are not favorable. What else is out there?

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Update!

Model agreement slowly coming together regarding a low pressure system just North West of Antigua…


So far we have GFS, ECMWF, MM5 and CMC which moves the low pressure centre to the South of the Dominican Republic – here the models differ (NOGAPS/GFS) then takes the low West towards the Cayman islands (Giving Jamaica a fair swipe) While ECMWF tracks across Cuba and out towards the Bahamas.


Here is the twist – upper air winds are forecast to really quite favorable for development from about 24 hours out..

If the NOGAPS/GFS solution verifies then I think that we have a really good chance of developing a strong tropical cyclone south of Cuba in about 5 days time.