Stuart Robinson
EF5
Whoops my bad - Noel to be ... (it is 07:30 am here in the UK)
Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)
- Thread starter Stuart Robinson
- Start date
Stuart Robinson
EF5
There are two likely scenarios for TD16 - and neither is good.
If TD16 tracks closer to the islands then due to the land interaction I am thinking that TD16 will become Tropical Storm Noel as best .However this then sets the stage for potentially catastrophic flooding, especially in Haiti, due to its slow movement.
A southerly course keeps the impact away from them, but creates the potential for rapid intensification into a dangerous hurricane with the possibility for a recurve into South Florida (if it ever survives the Cuba passage)
If TD16 tracks closer to the islands then due to the land interaction I am thinking that TD16 will become Tropical Storm Noel as best .However this then sets the stage for potentially catastrophic flooding, especially in Haiti, due to its slow movement.
A southerly course keeps the impact away from them, but creates the potential for rapid intensification into a dangerous hurricane with the possibility for a recurve into South Florida (if it ever survives the Cuba passage)
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Worrying output from the UKMET Model.... we will have to see if this comes to pass in about 15 hours time...
00UTC 28.10.2007 16.2N 70.8W WEAK
12UTC 28.10.2007 16.3N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.10.2007 17.4N 72.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.10.2007 18.2N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.10.2007 21.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2007 22.0N 76.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2007 16.2N 70.8W WEAK
12UTC 28.10.2007 16.3N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.10.2007 17.4N 72.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.10.2007 18.2N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.10.2007 21.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2007 22.0N 76.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Err..... Take a look at IR sat - TD 16 IS under going rapid intensification right now with cloud tops now below -80c !!!
Josh Morgerman
EF4
The convection is very impressive, but it's all E of the low center-- the cyclone is not getting any better organized. The new advisory (just out) keeps intensity the same (30 kt) and lowers the long-range forecast to have it peak at 50 kt.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Re: Cuba... I want to again point out that passage over Cuba is not necessarily very disruptive at all; it depends on the angle, speed, and point of crossing. If the center crosses W Cuba while moving briskly N, it's actually not that big a deal-- and the cyclone can quickly reintensify afterward. (It's not like passing over Hispaniola-- an entirely different story.) Several very severe hurrricanes have hit FL after passing over Cuba-- for example, King 1950 and Charley 2004.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
I am not sure where the centre is ....
However we wil all know more once RECON goes in... in about 5 hours time.
AFxxx01KKA INVEST28 OCT 1530Z28 OCT 2200Z(invest 90L)
AFxxx02KKA CYCLONE29 OCT 0300Z29 OCT 0900Z(invest 90L)
However we wil all know more once RECON goes in... in about 5 hours time.
AFxxx01KKA INVEST28 OCT 1530Z28 OCT 2200Z(invest 90L)
AFxxx02KKA CYCLONE29 OCT 0300Z29 OCT 0900Z(invest 90L)
Josh Morgerman
EF4
The 5 am EDT advisory (from just an hour ago) puts the center at 16.2N 72.1W. It's actually just to the W of that very intense convection (unfortunately not embedded within).
Jose Garcia
EF0
Sierra Maestra
The mountains in SE Cuba are not as high as Pico Duarte in Dominican Republic but are higher than 6000ft at points in the Sierra Maestra. This could affect the circulation enough to weaken whatever passes through there, but not enough to really kill a storm unless it just stalls over the area. Cuba is not entirely flat . It'll all depend on the track and forward speed of the system...
Jose
The mountains in SE Cuba are not as high as Pico Duarte in Dominican Republic but are higher than 6000ft at points in the Sierra Maestra. This could affect the circulation enough to weaken whatever passes through there, but not enough to really kill a storm unless it just stalls over the area. Cuba is not entirely flat . It'll all depend on the track and forward speed of the system...
Jose
Jim Leonard
Tropical cyclones during the late season often intensify very rapidly while at low latitudes. This because as the mid-latitude westerlies drop south to a point just north of the anticyclone over the top of the TC. this allows for a strong outflow channel to set up on the northern semicircle of the TC. This is occuring presently with TD16. The problem is when a late season storm such as this one moves very much to the north that strong flow which helped the outflow so well at lower latitudes becomes very unfavorable shearing enviroment and weakens the storm quite rapidly much like what happened with hurricane Michelle in 2001. Michelle a cat-4 moved across a relatively flat portion of central Cuba and emerged a cat-1.
I don't see this storm as a chase situation setting up as it will be going through some unfriendly islands and by the time it gets into the Bahamas it will be a low quality storm to chase.
I don't see this storm as a chase situation setting up as it will be going through some unfriendly islands and by the time it gets into the Bahamas it will be a low quality storm to chase.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Agreed 100%. Looking at the forecast track and intensity this morning, I don't see any opportunity here unless there's a drastic left shift in the track.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
RECON is inside TD16 right now - already 44 knot SMFR winds have been found - this is now TS Noel (at the next advisory)
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Actually it might be sooner than the next advisory
755
WTNT61 KNHC 281738
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 PM EDT...AND THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL
TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.
755
WTNT61 KNHC 281738
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 PM EDT...AND THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL
TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Actually... The guidance seems to have shifted a tad W this morning.
Dr. Masters, on Weather Underground, is sticking to a further-W solution-- as per the NOGAPS-- which keeps the center S of the Hispaniola and Cuba and stalls it out over the NW Caribbean.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Motion is now NNW, as per the special 2:15 pm EDT advisory-- suggesting 1) it's going to pass over Haiti and 2) it'll recurve well to the E. That totally sucks.
