Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

[Josh Morgerman]

The appearance of it this morning suggests a subtropical or extratropical low centered N of Hispaniola with the cloud pattern making an open "comma" shape. This isn't the sort of satellite presentation that suggests any significant strengthening as it moves N.

But, as Rob said, this could be a big player as an extratropical system. I think some of the models have been suggesting this.

<yawn> Where's Olga?

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It looks like crap this afternoon on satellite imagery-- seems to lack a core, meaning any deepening at this point will be sloooooooow.

However... the models have taken an interesting jog W, with some of them bringing it rather close to S FL. Furthermore, conditions are not terrible for deepening right now.

If this thing can develop some core convection, it might get interesting. It just emerged off Hispaniola, so it'll be interesting to see if it can start winding up at all today and tonight.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 2 pm EDT position-- 20.5N 73.8W-- shows a healthy jog to the left. It's moving much more W now. However, the cyclone remains very disorganized.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Interesting... The cyclone is moving NW now--well to the left of previous forecasts-- and the latest NHC track brings it quite close to SE FL in 48 hours. Convection is increasing a little around the low center-- and there are faint rumors of a hurricane floating about.

If it can just get some convection going around that center and build a little bit of a core, we might be in business here.

Interestingly, the cyclone doesn't show any signs of shearing today-- at least not to my untrained eye.

 

[rdale]

and there are faint rumors of a hurricane floating about.

The storm doesn't show anything that resembles organization - what makes you think it's a hurricane?

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The storm doesn't show anything that resembles organization - what makes you think it's a hurricane?

I don't think it's a hurricane. By "faint rumors" I mean that some people are saying it might become one-- including Max Mayfield, who was just on TV in the last hour.

Re: its organization... It's not great but it's improved markedly since this morning.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Cuban radar is showing a tightening swirl a bit N of the E end of the island. This is getting rather interesting all of a sudden...

 

[rdale]

I mean that some people are saying it might become one

If I had a nickel for every thread started in this forum that called for a hurricane I'd be rich and the US would be obliterated

 

[Josh Morgerman]

If I had a nickel for every thread started in this forum that called for a hurricane I'd be rich and the US would be obliterated

I hear you-- but for the record, I wasn't personally forecasting one. I'm a chaser, not a forecaster. I was simply reporting that some credible sources-- like Max Mayfield, who I think is credible-- said there was a realistic possibility of this cyclone reaching Cat 1 intensity.

It's certainly not an outlandish possibility.

 

[Martin Kucera]

Josh,
if this system was to become a cat 1 storm with a prospect of getting quite close to Fla, would you fly over for an intercept ?

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Josh,
if this system was to become a cat 1 storm with a prospect of getting quite close to Fla, would you fly over for an intercept ?

Hi Martin!

Yes, but only because my Grandma and Grandpa live in Boca Raton and I promised them I'd get out there for a visit in the next month. Since I have to go soon anyway, I might as well go tomorrow if there's even a possibility of some hurricane action.

Without that personal factor, however, I probably wouldn't trouble myself for what will most likely be one of those sloppy, asymmetric, late-season-type 'canes without a nice core (if it even becomes a 'cane).

I imagine-- given your convenient location-- that you'd drive up to the E coast for it...?

 

[Martin Kucera]

Hi Martin!

Yes, but only because my Grandma and Grandpa live in Boca Raton and I promised them I'd get out there for a visit in the next month. Since I have to go soon anyway, I might as well go tomorrow if there's even a possibility of some hurricane action.

Without that personal factor, however, I probably wouldn't trouble myself for what will most likely be one of those sloppy, asymmetric, late-season-type 'canes without a nice core (if it even becomes a 'cane).

I imagine-- given your convenient location-- that you'd drive up to the E coast for it...?

For sure I would drive up there, Josh. Although I am hoping the system is going to aim for the upper Keys ... (a couple months back I promised Jim Leonard a cane near where we live)... keeping my fingers crossed !

 

[Jim Leonard]

Even though the center of the tropical storm was moved westward during the past few hours, probably due to the low level ridge. The very flat feature to the cloud mass on the west side of the system tells me that an abrupt turn to the north and northeast will soon take place. The way it looks now all the deep convection will remain just offshore the Florida coast. Sorry Martin, no waterspouts from this one.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Just for fun, I took a closer look at the track of the storm forecast from several sources. It looks like IF Noel becomes a Hurricane, it is going to be hitting Andros Island in the Bahamas.

I pulled up the google map of Andros Island and there is nothing on the Southwest side of the island.

http://maps.google.com/maps?sourcei...A:en&q=andros+island+bahamas&um=1&sa=N&tab=wl

So, IF Noel pulls itself together, IF it becomes a hurricane and IF it can head towards Nassau, then maybe it would be worth it. But I see thit thing being sling shotted out to sea in 48 hours with the actual forward motion across the ground accounting for its higher wind speed.

 

[rdale]

That said...did anyone happen to see today 18z GFS run at 264 hours? There is a hybrid or coastal gale that looks like a monster barrelling up the east coast to NYC/LI. 850mb winds are close to 50knots with the system. Should be really interesting to watch for as we get closer in time.

Didn't want to forget this... Although I'm not terribly optimistic, unless you're thinking Noel will hit NYC?