Hurricane Noel (was TS Noel, TD16, Invest 90L)

[Forrest lambert]

If that storm rides up the coast and thats a bif "IF" the northeast could get close to gale force winds and mabe heavy rain. if that does happen ill be in heven. no waterspouts here sence 97 or 98 i think??? it would be nice to get there here. sorry it didnt hit you jim. you would of loved that!

 

[cdcollura]

Interesting to see the LLC is OVER Cuba as per the NHC, but take a visible / IR loop, and it appears to be just north of the island (mid-level center?)...

Meanwhile, experiencing sustained 25-30 MPH winds along East coast of S Florida ... I think this must be the start of Noel's wind envelope interacting with the high pressure ridge to the north of it.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The cyclone looks terrible on both infrared and visible imagery right now-- just complete crap. However, I find it interesting that its current motion will bring it out over the NW Caribbean soon. That would be kind of interesting.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

The cyclone looks terrible on both infrared and visible imagery right now-- just complete crap. However, I find it interesting that its current motion will bring it out over the NW Caribbean soon. That would be kind of interesting.

I do not see any NW motion yet. It is actually emerging south of the island of Cuba ATTM.

I am wondering how long the W motion will continue, the trough is still far NW of the area Noel is currently in.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Good day,



I do not see any NW motion yet. It is actually emerging south of the island of Cuba ATTM.

Agreed. I think we're saying the same thing-- no? I was saying it'll emerge in the NW Caribbean-- not that it's moving NW.

This storm has been moving way left of the projected tracks for a while now. According to the forecast, it should start to recurve now-- but it ain't. Yet.

Even it it gets back out over the Caribbean, it'll take some time for this to redevelop a core.

 

[cdcollura]

I'll favor a left track anytime ... More for a keys / FL chase.

Better than nothing on this aweful season (for some at least).

 

[Jim Leonard]

The big problem I see is if the low level center keeps moving west it probably will become more de-coupled with the deep convection and there appears to be a possible new center off the NE coast of Cuba in the convection. This feature could become dominate in a few hours and shoot off to the north to NE. Some of the models were showing this feature a couple of days ago, at the time I thought it was model noise. This secondary low was mentioned in a couple of cyclone discussions during the past couple of days.

 

[Forrest lambert]

Hey jim, u dont think it will ride the coast up to new england?

 

[Mike Theiss]

Yes, the tides were extremely high this afternoon when driving on Card Sound Road (road between the keys and homestead). There were sections that were completely underwater with waves on top.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

I was also "chasing" Noel (or it's effects at least)...

The wind setup - interaction between the high and the low (Noel) has caused exceptionally high surf (15 foot+ waves) along the FL east coast along with winds gusting 35-45 MPH.

Below are some of my pictures from todays (10-31) observations...

Above - 45 MPH wind gusts in Deerfield Beach, FL.

Above: Large wind waves batter Deerfield fishing pier (Deerfield Beach, FL).

Above: Boynton Beach inlet, Florida.

Above: Beach erosion - Deerfield Beach, FL.

Full chase account and pictures is available at the link below...

http://www.sky-chaser.com/noel07.htm

Enjoy ;-)

 

[HAltschule]

Is Noel Fooling Us All?

Interesting developments and very surprising. Kind of goes with the whole idea of a tropical system defying the odds and doing whatever the hell it wants. Here's my observation.

Latest IR zoom loops over the center show a clear center of rotation (at least the main one) moving west or west southwestward toward the area between FL US 1 and Cuba. This is much different than any of the models I have veiwed recently. I do now believe that this storm will strengthen and likely reach high TS or CAT 1 Hurricane strength by later tonight or tomorrow morning. I also think bonafide tropical storm force conditions will affect Southeast Florida tomorrow since the low center will be moving much closer to the west than the models suggest.

Assuming the NHC agrees with my assessment, I would expect TS warnings and Hurricane Watches for South Florida tonight. At least, that's what I'd be issuing if it were my forecast. We shall see what happens but this thing has about 12-18 more hours over the warm gulf stream waters to strengthen and the very cold cloud tops of evidence of a strengthening system.

 

[Mike Davis]

What some might call a "Silly Season"

Far be it from me to expound on why we have had such a strange season! Slow developing storms.. Two Cat 5's in a row hitting land... Systems that should, didn't, and systems that have defied the models.

I guess the real question is why? An interesting year. Even CSU has had a time of it.

 

[Mark Sudduth]

Odd season

It would be nice to see some reports next year as to what happened this season. It was billed as potentially being a big one and I cannot simply buy "well, sometimes the lesser of the odds win out". It is not that simple. Only 2 major hurricanes is not what anyone expected. The other hurricanes were small and weak and short lived- also not what was expected. As most may know, worldwide TC activity is down this year and to quite an extent in some basins. There is a reason behind it and I hope people smarter than I can shed some light on the subject.

Meantime, nice video grabs by Rich and Chris. That beach erosion is impressive and will still be there next hurricane season...something to consider once we actually get to next hurricane season.

 

[HAltschule]

A quick glance at the satellite loop of the TROAL and the Caribbean show that my cocnerns have materialzed. Shear has encompassed the suspect area(s) and is ripping things apart. Thus has been the case all summer really. While the models seem bullish, we will have to see the shear relax first or all bets are off.

That said...did anyone happen to see today 18z GFS run at 264 hours? There is a hybrid or coastal gale that looks like a monster barrelling up the east coast to NYC/LI. 850mb winds are close to 50knots with the system. Should be really interesting to watch for as we get closer in time.

Hey Y'All. Here's my above post from 10/24. The beast that I was watching back then is the storm that will become the extratopical monster over the New England coastal waters in a few days. What a great verification by the GFS model from 260 hours away. Great job. Another example why we need to look at the long range models carefully and not just throw them out the window. There's something to be said about run to run continuity.

That said, the SUNY STONY BROOK MM5 is calling for 50+kt winds in Cape Cod (or close to it) in another 48-60 hours. What a mess this will be for Eastern New England...especially the coastal waters. It wouldn't surprise me to see 12-16 foot waves with this one.

 

[HAltschule]

Didn't want to forget this... Although I'm not terribly optimistic, unless you're thinking Noel will hit NYC?

See previous post. I wasn't THAT far off. Not bad for 260 hours out. Of course, I would always give a 1000 mile margin error 10 days away. I'm sure no Accuweather. (PS: Mr. Bastardi...I am still waiting for that NYC direct hit Hurricane that was supposed to happen in 2006).