Future of the Season Pt 3

[Chris Hayes]

Since we'll be coming out of an active severe weather pattern in a couple of days, I thought I'd start Future of the Season Pt 3. Everyone post as to what you think the season has in store for us after this several day shot of severe storms is over.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Looks pretty quiet to me for a while. Looks like a decent ridge building into the area. Our trip begins May 17th so it would be nice if things could get active again around that time period. A few runs will hint at this, and then hint away from it. Last night's run wanted to start throwing the next big impulse in off the pacific coast, but this morning's run throws a moisture scouring front across the central part of the country. This is about what I'd expect from the long term models, nothing.

 

[Cstok]

I know that its far out so were just wish casting here but...

I too start my chase vacation on the 17th, and I am concerned that the GFS is starting to show an omega block during that time... gulp. So it jumps around run to run, but I am starting to get concerned.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I wouldnt call that an omega block, but it does have me concerned too. The first day I can chase will be on the 21st or 22nd.

 

[David Wolfson]

The fact I'm leaving for the Plains this weekend is probably a better forecasting indicator than NCEP's massively parallel computers.

 

[Cstok]

well one run did look like an omega block, now it just looks like NW flow... oh well... models will flip flop around more, much more, between now and then... I hope.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

After such an active early season, it looks like the atmosphere is going to take an extended break over chase alley- all signs are present for the
"death ridge" to make an extended appearance across western NOAM for the next 1 week, and possibly longer. The GFS ensembles, ECMWF etc are pretty much unanimous in showing this scenario, so weary chasers who have already scored big so far can go fishin' or do that yardwork. I am very glad I made two treks out early, even though I missed the really big stuff, I did see a few tornadoes, so this year is already better than last and my "real" vacation does not begin until the end of May. I hope by then the pattern will reverse back to a western trough. Sometimes these things seem to go in 2 week cycles, maybe that will be the case this year.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I know there are people who will be on chasecations next week, and I hope you see something. However the weeks I'm concerned about are the week after next, and at least 3 weeks after that. I'm leaving for my chasecation on the 18th, and will be able to do my first chase on the 22nd. I'll be out there for at least 3 weeks, possibly longer. I hope Matt is right about a 2 week cycle. That seems to be what is happening this year.

 

[Dan Cook]

Same here. I'm out there from the 19th onward; hopefully it will be busy then too.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Ouch.

I'll be off and free to chase starting next weekend, and all I can say is that we better hope for a big flip flop in the models over the next week. It looks flat out disgusting.

 

[Kevin Myatt]

Looks like best bet next week for those of us who are locked in to heading out might be the far northern plains with some disturbances riding over the ridge in the zonal flow.

We head out May 13 til about 26-27 or so and we're just hoping to grab something with a weak disturbance or front in hopes of rebuilding that trough for a few days very late in our trip (mixed signals on that)

 

[Dan Cook]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_384l.gif

Yes I know it's 384 hours but at least it's got a trough coming in around the 23rd.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I saw that earlier, Dan. We can hope it's right. I dont think we'll be stuck in a blocking patter for more than a couple weeks. All spring we've seemed to be in a patter where we have a quiet spell for a week or two, then all heck breaks lose. I have an inkling that we'll stay on that kind of pattern.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

May 5th was the first day I got a tornado this year that wasnt late in the month. The other days I have scored were on the 21st, 23rd, 24th, and the 28th (twice) days of the month. So those who are taking trips late in the month I think you will be alright. There definitely seems like 2 week on, 2 week off pattern this year. I hope it will continue.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Well, we're coming over on Monday (14th), and so I reckon we'll be hanging around the northern Plains for a few days, hoping for an impulse in the flow up there (and some moisture!), and then looking for a trough to try and dig in from the west...ECMWF did hint at this by day 10.