For you longtime chasers-any info on these days?

I dug up a bunch of NSSFC Public Severe Weather Outlooks from the 1990s. I'm mainly trying to figure out if NSSFC had a high risk in effect on these days and what actually happened, if there are any photos, videos or case studies of the storms. The phrasing they used ("long-lived intense tornadoes" etc) certainly sounds high-risk worthy, but this was during a period when the NSSFC issued public outlooks for many moderate risks in addition to high risks (much like the SPC is doing now), and I couldn't find the accompanying convective outlooks.

WUS36 KMKC 291100
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI
0500 AM CST MONDAY MARCH 29 1993

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE STATES WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHWEST TEXAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

AN EARLY SPRING STORM WILL BE WINDING UP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM ARE BRINGING VERY MOIST GULF AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HEATING FROM THE STRONG EARLY SPRING SUN COUPLED WITH QUITE COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR AN EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENERGY WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REACHING THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO RAPID FORMATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN TEXAS. WITH THE SUPPORT OF STRONG UPPER WINDS AND THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK WILL COMMENCE WITH TORNADO DEVELOPMENT QUITE LIKELY ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS EVENING THE WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED THERE IS THE CONCERN THAT PARTICULARLY LARGE AND INTENSE TORNADOES COULD OCCUR IN THIS REGION.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SAFETY RULES...AND LISTEN TO RADIO..TV..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..JACK HALES..
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER


362
WWUS36 KMKC 100740
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
KANSAS CITY MISSOURI
0400 AM CST SUNDAY APRIL 10 1994

..WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE STATES WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDE...

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE EAST/WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THEN EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE THREAT REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD ENHANCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A KEY INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH DRYLINE FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL NOT ONLY FOR VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SAFETY RULES...AND LISTEN TO RADIO..TV..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..RICHARD ANTHONY..
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER


WWUS36 KMKC(140955
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
502 AM CST TUESDAY JUNE 14 1994

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS aND TORNADOES TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE STATES WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDE:

MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THE WESTERN-MOST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN

AN UNSEASONABLY INTENSE STORM SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS MOVING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON A STONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A PO ( @ "F A!"DISTURBANCE
ALREADY THIS MORNING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY THE STORM SYSTEM IS RACING EASTWARD AT NEARLY 60 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA PRODUCANG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF MINNESOTA INTO CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY STRONG HEATING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF POWERFUL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MINESOTA INTO LPTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND0THE0WSTERN PORTION OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS AT ALL LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SAFETY RULES...AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO..TV..OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..JACK HALES..
NATIONAL SEVERE STOBMS FORECAST CENTER


083
WWUS36 KMKC 251605
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO
1100 AM CDT SATURDAY JUNE 25 1994

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK MOUNTAIN REGION...


THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MISSOURI IS FORECASTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE:

MOST OF IOWA AND MISSOURI
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS
AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS SURROUNDING THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION BY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARK MOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A VERY STRONG JET STREAM OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY EARLY TO MIDDLLE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA REACHING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS..LOCALLY AS STRONG AS 80 TO 100 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY DAMAGING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN TWO AREAS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONE AREA EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE OTHER AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL PERSONS IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SAFETY RULES...AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

...BOB JOHNS...
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER


Edit: I looked these days up in John Hart's storm reports plot archive, and it seems the results were pretty unimpressive. All of these were bust days, in the sense that there were severe thunderstorms but not outbreaks to justify this kind of product.
 
Hey Andy,

I do remember a few of those days...March 29,1993...things ended up lining out pretty quickly across the Texas panhandle and western Ok. There were a handful of brief, weak tornadoes in Tx and Ok and lots of hail and wind reports. Val Castor and I chased southwest Ok, basically playing tag with a gust front...50-60mph winds...a few nice gustnadoes and small hail was about it. The next day was a cold core low situation over Ok, with numerous reports of funnels and even a tornado or two.
It looked good early on, but the usual early season problems of extensive cloudiness, moisture that wasn't what was expected and a weak cap dampered things.
April 10, 1994 was another bust...thanks to a sagging, strong cold front and strong cap. Numerous elevated hailers developed behind the front, but the cap held along and south of it. Val and I chased that one also and it was lame.

Rob
 
None of the events were that significant, a person was killed in a mobile home (I think) by a small F1 near Whitesville, MO during the 25 June 1994 event, there were few if any other significant tornadoes with any events.

The NCDC's searchable Storm Data event database or the SPC climo page stuff would have reports. Given the lack of anything significant, chances of case studies are slim but it's possible "failed event" studies were done (those aren't done enough some would argue).
 
Even though the tornado events didn't quite pan out in these situations, I would still hesitate to call them "busts"...except for the June 14th event...there were a minimal number of severe reports with that. The March 29th event saw nearly 200 reports of severe weather in and near the outlook area, which I would think verified a moderate risk. The April 10th event was also close to 200 reports.
I do remember on the 3-29-93 event, that things changed quite a bit from overnight to that afternoon (sagging cold front, extensive cloudiness)...it would be interesting to see later SPC outlooks and how they changed...April 10th, If I recall correctly, was also a moderate risk, with a high instability and a strong cap south of a front...the potential was there. I would also be curious to see updated outlooks for that day as well.
The June 25th event looks like it was a fairly good forecast to me....hail and wind were the main focus of the forecast, with tornadoes, some strong, possible...there were over 210 wind/hail reports and 11 tornadoes (1 F2...it was also a killer tornado). The following day, an impressive outbreak of tornadoes (49) occured across parts of TN/GA/AL/MS/KY/NC, a fairly unusual area for that time of year.


Rob
 
I "unintentionally" made a bad assumption given the context of the forum and conditioned myself to thinking tornadoes, but... looking back at the wording, tornado forecasts were made. This at a time when higher categorial risks were more tornado-centric, and these were PSOs with strong tornado wording at a time when they were more reserved for tornado outbreaks as well. I'm quite aware that higher categorical (and now probabilistic) risks are issued for severe as well as tornado outbreaks but tornado outbreaks were predicted and did not transpire. It's just part of the game, we all make forecasts that don't pan out. Not total nil events though, no.
 
Originally posted by Scott A. Kampas
I "unintentionally" made a bad assumption given the context of the forum and conditioned myself to thinking tornadoes, It's just part of the game, we all make forecasts that don't pan out.

Oh, I don't think you made a bad assumption at all...I think that was probably the main point of the post, the enhanced wording for tornadoes. And I have made more than my share of bustola forecasts! I just didn't agree that these were forecast "busts" even though the predicted tornado events didn't really materialize. With the exception of the June 14th event, where there were only a handful of reports total. But these are all early am forecasts...I wish I could see the later forecasts to see how things were dealt with...if the enhanced wording remained or not. As I said earlier, on the March 29th event, alot changed between that first outlook and the late morning outlook. Shoot, I remember quite well going to bed thinking the first chase of the year (for me )would be a notable tornado outbreak..things looked really good. But by the next morning it was apparent things wouldn't turn out as initially hoped.
I still think that last event, June 25th, was pretty well forecast after rereading it...severe thunderstorms with the "possibility" of tornadoes, some strong...
Andy, if you (or anyone) have the 16z or later outlooks for those days, they would be interesting to see...

Rob
 
Exactly what I said above...

it seems the results were pretty unimpressive. All of these were bust days, in the sense that there were severe thunderstorms but not outbreaks to justify this kind of product.

Some of the wording "particularily intense tornadoes" yadda yadda yadda makes it sound like they are expecting a 4/26/91 style event.

Thanks, Rob and Scott!
 
Originally posted by Andy Wehrle
Exactly what I said above...

it seems the results were pretty unimpressive. All of these were bust days, in the sense that there were severe thunderstorms but not outbreaks to justify this kind of product.

Some of the wording "particularily intense tornadoes" yadda yadda yadda makes it sound like they are expecting a 4/26/91 style event.

Thanks, Rob and Scott!

But as usual, it's the risk that justifies the product, not the end result. Hindsight is always 20/20 - or sometimes clearer.
 
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