El Nino Not a friend for chasers

[David Hodges]

I didn't want to hear this news about the so called Super El Nino .that might very well extend into the spring chase season of 2016..
ENSO could severely dampen tornado frequency which will mean less opportunity for us chasers.On the positive side, no one really knows what kind of chase season 2016 is going to be until it is over and done with. Only then will all of us know what did go down in the history archives.

 

[Donnie Beasley]

The current Enso models are showing the El Nino reaching "Very Strong" or "Super" status (meaning 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal) by this fall. They also show it starting to weaken and reach close to a Neutral Enso by late Spring/ early Summer. The best analogs in my opinion for the 2016 Spring season would be 1998, 2003 and 2010. I only went back around 25-30 years because it's difficult to find reliable tornado counts for years earlier than that.

#1 1997-98 El Nino- This is almost a carbon copy of what is expected of the current Nino. It reached it's peak in the fall and achieved "Very Strong" or "Super" status. It weakened to neutral conditions in the late Spring/ early Summer of 1998. The 1998 year had over 1400 tornadoes with a couple of F5's which would be an above average year.

#2 2009-2010 El Nino- This year was not as strong as the current Nino is forecasted to get but it still reached "Moderate Nino" levels. It reached it's peak in late Fall/ early Winter 2009 and fell back to Neutral conditions by mid Spring 2010. 2010 year had close to 1300 tornadoes which would put it as an above average year.

#3 2002-2003 El Nino- This year was not as strong as the current Nino is forecasted to get but it still reached "Moderate Nino" levels. It reached it's peak in fall of 2002 and weakened back to Neutral in the early Spring of 2003. 2003 had close to 1400 tornadoes which would put it as an above average year.

So all hope is not lost on these El Nino years. I would look at 2017 as the next very active year due to La Nina that typically follows these Very Strong El Nino events and long range models are showing it starting to develop in the Summer of 2016. I still think that 2016 can be a very active chase year.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I dunno, the developing El Nino seemed to bring high tornado counts once May rolled around, and then it never really slowed down. It seemed to keep the moisture in place and the jet a little more energized. Granted many of these tornadoes were not-so-photogenic and occurred on murky 5% setups as opposed to classic 10-15% dryline days...but there seemed to be plenty of tornadoes to go around once things finally got going this year.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I've never understood why chasers would care at all about the national tornado count. Any given year, many (usually the majority of) U.S. tornadoes occur outside of chaser-friendly areas.

Suppose a climate regime favors modestly below-average national tornado activity, but preferentially focuses what tornadoes do occur in the Plains states. To me, that climate regime is still very much "a friend for chasers." I'm not saying that's what El Nino is, but it illustrates the point that national tornado count means almost nothing for our purposes.

The last two chase seasons following El Nino winters, 2006-07 and 2009-10, were both fairly active in the Plains and are widely accepted as good chase years. Going back another 15 years, you also have 2003 and 1992 which followed moderate to strong Nino winters and were relatively good seasons. There are certainly examples of abysmal chase seasons during El Nino, too (1987 and 1988, most prominently). But there is, in my opinion, compelling evidence that El Nino does not inhibit Plains tornado activity to the extent that it does overall CONUS activity.

Furthermore, I guess I find it odd to see so many complaints about El Nino so close on the heels of the 2011-2014 La Nina drought years, which will probably be looked back upon as a dark era in chasing comparable to the mid-late 1980s.

 

[Dan Robinson]

It might not be a friend for a chaser who doesn't travel more than 5 hours from their home area to chase (then again, few years tend to be the friends of anyone with that strategy). My prediction: there will be some quality Plains tornadoes in spring 2016 between Houston and Bismarck, as well as a dozen or so Midwest sleeper/outbreak days - as there are every year, whether it be El Nino, La Nina and everything between.

 

[Donnie Beasley]

I've never understood why chasers would care at all about the national tornado count. Any given year, many (usually the majority of) U.S. tornadoes occur outside of chaser-friendly areas.

Suppose a climate regime favors modestly below-average national tornado activity, but preferentially focuses what tornadoes do occur in the Plains states. To me, that climate regime is still very much "a friend for chasers." I'm not saying that's what El Nino is, but it illustrates the point that national tornado count means almost nothing for our purposes.

The last two chase seasons following El Nino winters, 2006-07 and 2009-10, were both fairly active in the Plains and are widely accepted as good chase years. Going back another 15 years, you also have 2003 and 1992 which followed moderate to strong Nino winters and were relatively good seasons. There are certainly examples of abysmal chase seasons during El Nino, too (1987 and 1988, most prominently). But there is, in my opinion, compelling evidence that El Nino does not inhibit Plains tornado activity to the extent that it does overall CONUS activity.

Furthermore, I guess I find it odd to see so many complaints about El Nino so close on the heels of the 2011-2014 La Nina drought years, which will probably be looked back upon as a dark era in chasing comparable to the mid-late 1980s.

Brett Roberts, post: 337249, member: 517"]I've never understood why chasers would care at all about the national tornado count. Any given year, many (usually the majority of) U.S. tornadoes occur outside of chaser-friendly areas.

I normally just use national count as a quick way to debunk the idea that El Nino= Low numbers of tornadoes lol I'm also someone that doesn't mind chasing outside the traditional plains chasing areas. So, to me, national numbers do have some importance.

Suppose a climate regime favors modestly below-average national tornado activity, but preferentially focuses what tornadoes do occur in the Plains states. To me, that climate regime is still very much "a friend for chasers." I'm not saying that's what El Nino is, but it illustrates the point that national tornado count means almost nothing for our purposes.

Yes and no. In a perfect world that would be the case, but you have years like 2014 where not only do you have a low national count, but the few outbreaks you do have, happen away from the plains (Arkansas, Mississippi). Plains tornado counts were way down that year.

The last two chase seasons following El Nino winters, 2006-07 and 2009-10, were both fairly active in the Plains and are widely accepted as good chase years. Going back another 15 years, you also have 2003 and 1992 which followed moderate to strong Nino winters and were relatively good seasons. There are certainly examples of abysmal chase seasons during El Nino, too (1987 and 1988, most prominently). But there is, in my opinion, compelling evidence that El Nino does not inhibit Plains tornado activity to the extent that it does overall CONUS activity.

Furthermore, I guess I find it odd to see so many complaints about El Nino so close on the heels of the 2011-2014 La Nina drought years, which will probably be looked back upon as a dark era in chasing comparable to the mid-late 1980s.

Well 2011 Was pretty great for me. No Complaints here. As far as 2012-2014, the La Nina Enso phase ended at the end of the 2011-2012 Winter and we have been Neutral up until now.[/QUOTE]

 

[Brett Roberts]

I normally just use national count as a quick way to debunk the idea that El Nino= Low numbers of tornadoes lol I'm also someone that doesn't mind chasing outside the traditional plains chasing areas. So, to me, national numbers do have some importance.

There are several studies in the literature linking La Nina to increased frequency of significant tornado outbreaks, so I'm not necessarily disputing the OP's premise that El Nino is on average associated with a reduced annual CONUS tornado count. Looking at the past ten years, the two years which began with a strong La Nina winter (2008 and 2011) had by far the most tornadoes nationwide (2194 and 1897, respectively). Of course, both of those years featured historic outbreaks in areas like the Ozarks and Dixie Alley. Outbreaks like 27 April 2011 can play a huge role in the annual tornado count, but do they really "benefit" chasers in proportion to their contribution to that count?

As you hinted at, it depends on your perspective. For those willing to chase in the jungles, perhaps they do.

Yes and no. In a perfect world that would be the case, but you have years like 2014 where not only do you have a low national count, but the few outbreaks you do have, happen away from the plains (Arkansas, Mississippi). Plains tornado counts were way down that year.

Sure; all else equal, a higher national count would imply better chances for a good chase season. I'm just saying that it's a loose correlation, not a strong one -- at least for chasers who are focused exclusively on the Plains.

Well 2011 Was pretty great for me. No Complaints here. As far as 2012-2014, the La Nina Enso phase ended at the end of the 2011-2012 Winter and we have been Neutral up until now.

You are correct in that I shouldn't have associated that entire period with La Nina, as the episode centered on 2011 technically ended in early 2012 using the accepted definition related to the 3-month ONI running average. Still, a weakly negative ONI persisted through most of 2012-2013 into early 2014. Given the unprecedented drought that plagued the southern-central Plains and adversely affected chase opportunities through much of that period, I assume most chasers would welcome practically any change in the background climate regime. Granted, I'm probably biased since OK/TX were at the center of the drought.

Ultimately, I'd remind anyone fretting over El Nino to keep in mind that since 2000, the list of chase seasons following winters with a peak ONI > 1 is as follows: 2003, 2007, and 2010. None of those can reasonably be considered "bad" years, and I suspect a lot of chasers would say that all three were pretty good. That doesn't mean I think next year will be great, but I also don't think (by a long shot) El Nino is something to get depressed over.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Just head out to Columbus, NE on 6/23 next year like 1998, what could go wrong?

 

[David Hodges]

The current Enso models are showing the El Nino reaching "Very Strong" or "Super" status (meaning 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal) by this fall. They also show it starting to weaken and reach close to a Neutral Enso by late Spring/ early Summer. The best analogs in my opinion for the 2016 Spring season would be 1998, 2003 and 2010. I only went back around 25-30 years because it's difficult to find reliable tornado counts for years earlier than that.

#1 1997-98 El Nino- This is almost a carbon copy of what is expected of the current Nino. It reached it's peak in the fall and achieved "Very Strong" or "Super" status. It weakened to neutral conditions in the late Spring/ early Summer of 1998. The 1998 year had over 1400 tornadoes with a couple of F5's which would be an above average year.

#2 2009-2010 El Nino- This year was not as strong as the current Nino is forecasted to get but it still reached "Moderate Nino" levels. It reached it's peak in late Fall/ early Winter 2009 and fell back to Neutral conditions by mid Spring 2010. 2010 year had close to 1300 tornadoes which would put it as an above average year.

#3 2002-2003 El Nino- This year was not as strong as the current Nino is forecasted to get but it still reached "Moderate Nino" levels. It reached it's peak in fall of 2002 and weakened back to Neutral in the early Spring of 2003. 2003 had close to 1400 tornadoes which would put it as an above average year.

So all hope is not lost on these El Nino years. I would look at 2017 as the next very active year due to La Nina that typically follows these Very Strong El Nino events and long range models are showing it starting to develop in the Summer of 2016. I still think that 2016 can be a very active chase year.

 

[David Hodges]

Great research! Hope that your prediction is right based on past events. We shall see.