Warren Faidley
Supporter
The timing is going to be everything. Impossible to nail it down now if it's night or day. Slow movement might help extend a daylight period.
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Dorian Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Justin Allen
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I MacDaniel
EF0
I haven't caught up much on Dorian, but it might be interesting to see how Dorian does over the weekend. Last thing we need is a Category 4/5 hitting Miami or Florida's east coast, however. Given current predicted track, Miami probably would not see the worst of it, but never know.
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Joe Cameron
EF1
Any talk of it being like another Andrew, crossing the peninsula and into the gulf ?
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Could cross Florida but would not have a lot of time to build a mega surge if it turns north quickly. Florida is flat, so the cyclone would stay somewhat intact if moves across quickly.
I MacDaniel
EF0
Yes, but it may get more interesting should Dorian cross Florida, but Dorian can wallop the lights out of FL's east coast should maximum surge be realized thanks to king tide and Cat. 4 strength. That could be a huge concern when Dorian hits that portion of FL.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Not enjoying the latest model runs forecasting a stalled hurricane over the same area for days. This would likely erode or clog coastal highways with debris for an extended period. I've also discovered the main garages in Daytona Beach are securing and shutting down Sunday night.
Quincy Vagell
EF4
The steering currents look fairly weak in the medium range. There's a trough ejecting east from the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay vicinity now. Unlike most historical analogs (late summer hurricane near Dorian's current position), instead of continuing northwest or turning north up the coast, the models are basically unanimous in a WNW turn over the next couple of days.
It's beyond that when things get tricky. Dorian likely slows down, but does it continue drifting west, does it stall or do some sort of loop near Florida, or does it eventually turn north? That eventual turn is key, if it does happen. When it happens will have major implications for not only Florida, but the Carolinas, Georgia and possibly Alabama as well.
Even though the tracks are not indicative of what's a realistic scenario here, all of the analogs that featured a northwest-moving hurricane near Dorian's latest position are all historic storms:
Connie, Floyd, Fran, Gloria, Hugo and the 1898 unnamed hurricane. Of those that continued moving northwest (1898 and Hugo), both made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane.
It's beyond that when things get tricky. Dorian likely slows down, but does it continue drifting west, does it stall or do some sort of loop near Florida, or does it eventually turn north? That eventual turn is key, if it does happen. When it happens will have major implications for not only Florida, but the Carolinas, Georgia and possibly Alabama as well.
Even though the tracks are not indicative of what's a realistic scenario here, all of the analogs that featured a northwest-moving hurricane near Dorian's latest position are all historic storms:
Connie, Floyd, Fran, Gloria, Hugo and the 1898 unnamed hurricane. Of those that continued moving northwest (1898 and Hugo), both made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The irony.... my flight from Tucson to Miami was cancelled because of the line of storms that passed through Dallas. No way to reroute ATM and get there before late tomorrow. Might have to consider flying in further north (Atlanta) and heading south. Less panic further north, at least for the moment. Hopefully the outright panic in Miami will settle down. Have not had time to look at the models, but the NHC seems to be leaning toward either a coast skimmer or off coast event. Next 24 hours will be interesting.
Kevin R Burgess
EF1
Dan Robinson
EF5
One of the more dramatic TC forecast changes in recent memory. Dorian's progged track up until landfall is reminiscent of Frances. That storm was moving so slow at landfall that I slept for hours inside the calm eye. I'm not a fan of slow-moving TCs, there is a lot of time for upwelling and land interactions to start weakening the storm before the eyewall arrives. Given the further pushback in timing and uncertainty, I'm postponing a chase decision until at least Sunday.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The latest GFS is also moving Dorian slightly more northward. Interesting trend. Won't take much of a wobble to make Jacksonville the center of attraction.... a place that floods like crazy.
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Stan Rose
EF5
what's with the OP GFS and a few other runs now showing the eye staying offshore with the northward trek?? like just one or two of the ensembles members a couple days ago, which I thought were really odd at the time but now maybe not so odd. Still an uncomfortable range of tracks and it's getting closer....
Just gonna set this right here:
Depending on where in Florida Dorian makes landfall that dropsonde reading does not bear good news for anyone. More discomforting, personally, is what Dorian may do after it hits Florida. Some of the ensemble models show it turning, going back out to sea and moving towards coastal North and South Carolina. Will be closely monitoring the storm's progress as it continues along its track.
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