Chase Season 2025 - Crowded Roads Discussion.

[Warren Faidley]

When you mix locals (and some chasers) who are basically looky-loos, it really complicates matters. Some people I've encountered have ZERO situational or weather awareness. These people likely pose more (or equal) danger as those who drive a little wacky. I had this problem while responding to the tornado strike in Grinnell, KS, it was hard to navigate around people out for a look, some stuck in the mud, blocking roads.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Just a few random thoughts, prompted by others’ excellent posts above -

- Agree that dirt roads can be less crowded, but personally I hesitate to take them, even in an SUV. If they are even slightly wet, and have ruts in them from earlier traffic, it is easy to get stuck, or fishtail off the road into the drainage ditch. You also cannot drive as fast; you might save time compared to driving say another 5 minutes to the next paved road, but you will easily lose that same 5 minutes driving more slowly.

- I also worry about having to turn back onto a main road from a dirt road. This kept me off dirt roads for Dodge City in 2016; I knew that if I went west to get closer to the tornado, I would eventually need to backtrack and re-enter the main north/south road

- On May 29 we purposely went well ahead of the storm so that we could drive through Lamesa before most others, without getting stuck in a conga line exacerbated by the city lights and traffic (an easy decision to make, since we couldn’t see much anyway)

- I’m usually hesitant to forego a primary target. I don’t get many chances at this each year, so why would I lower my probability of success? Having said that, it depends on how much of a difference there is, i,e, sometimes the secondary target may not be *that* much worse than the primary. I felt this way on May 17, liking my chances in the Woodward area enough to avoid the hordes + metro traffic that I feared in the primary target between OKC and DFW. That didn’t work out too well though (missed the Paul’s Valley tornado).

- I do not use Spotter Network. I am trying to simplify my analysis and approach to chasing, and don’t need another variable to synthesize, especially in the heat of a chase. I also don’t want to be prejudiced in my forecast or in my field decisions.

- Having said that, it’s impossible not to at least consider as a data point what other people are doing. Who among us hasn’t seen a chaser go the opposite direction and ask themselves why? Not following mindlessly, but it’s a data point to consider. And that just further explains why I don’t want to multiply that effect with red dots on SN.

 

[Brett Roberts]

My immense frustration with the hordes in 2025 continued on the June 5-8 setups in W TX. I've either been in suboptimal viewing positions or unable to stop and capture good photos on both of the legitimately high quality tornadoes I've seen so far this year, Arnett and Morton. In both cases, the conga line got into my head and completely dominated my decision making re: roads, positioning, and overall strategy. In the case of Morton, I was pretty aggressive for the first couple cycles of the storm, and didn't run into significant crowds on dirt roads 1-2 miles off pavement. But then the hordes congregated more and more into the same storm-relative area with time, and it was a total zoo with occasional idiotic behavior re: partially blocking roads, erratic driving, etc. Naturally, about 5 minutes before Morton started, I got skittish and decided to blast east well ahead of the storm for some buffer. I ended up watching the wedge pass NW to eventually just N of me, which had substantially lower contrast than those positioned to the W and/or who got close earlier.

I'm realizing that the relatively cautious kind of storm-relative positioning I tend to fall into by nature, often waiting at midrange to the E or SE of the base until it's obvious that a tornado is imminent, simply doesn't work with the hordes as bad as they consistently are. It may never have worked well on high-end days, but it's always a non-starter at this point. It's even worse with any E to SE moving storm where I'm trying to avoid glass-shattering hail in the forward flank, which tends to take out (or at least threaten) much of the prime viewing area on such storms. I think the relative reward for being very aggressive and not caring about hail has steadily increased over recent years, and perhaps I've been slow to accept that, since it's not the way I prefer to chase.

The specific pattern that played out multiple days last week is something pretty well covered by some of James's points above. Every day featured E to ESE moving storms. I don't have 4WD and follow a "live to chase the next cycle" mindset, so I wanted to stay on paved or at least very good gravel E-W roads while paralleling a storm on its S flank. I was willing to shoot N as needed on dirt roads if the view or action demanded it. But the problem is that as soon as you do that, you face needing to come back and make a left turn back onto your paved E option to continue following the storm... and I could see headlights to the horizon in my rearview mirror on every damn storm, every damn day. My fear of that left turn is basically the reason I wasn't in position to strike right as Morton started, along with several other bad decisions this year. It also led to a solid 30-60 minutes of extreme frustration with the Sundown-Ropesville storm on June 6, but at least it didn't cost me anything significant.

Maybe I'm making this harder than it needs to be somehow. But the riddle of the left turn back onto the primary artery has absolutely sabatoged my decision making and caused me to chase scared almost all the time, now that the conga line is ever-present. I'm thinking that if you aren't willing to take gorilla hail or chance true dirt roads over a sustained distance, maybe the best alternative is to take periodic hail marys by getting right up on the inflow-hail interface at some interval, and then accept that you may get behind for 5-10 min after that if it doesn't pay off right away. Because my autopilot mode of trying to stay downstream, "ahead of the crowd," once a conga line forms simply isn't working at all.

Hopefully this is at least partially on-topic and not just a personal rant. Even the extreme overperforming structure in NM on June 7, a 2% day very far from population centers that had a real shot of failing to produce mature supercells, ended up with a lower-end conga line that put me in the "chasing scared" mode by trying to blast ahead of the storm instead of more frequent stops in the optimal storm-relative position. Nothing comes easy anymore.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Maybe I'm making this harder than it needs to be somehow. But the riddle of the left turn back onto the primary artery has absolutely sabatoged my decision making and caused me to chase scared almost all the time, now that the conga line is ever-present. I'm thinking that if you aren't willing to take gorilla hail or chance true dirt roads over a sustained distance, maybe the best alternative is to take periodic hail marys by getting right up on the inflow-hail interface at some interval, and then accept that you may get behind for 5-10 min after that if it doesn't pay off right away. Because my autopilot mode of trying to stay downstream, "ahead of the crowd," once a conga line forms simply isn't working at all.

Reminds me of my pizza-driving days when I'd take three/more deliveries in a shot and route myself based upon the fewest left turns on the circle.

I feel like you and I share the same process there, me perhaps not to the extent you do. But on the Morton day, as the storm approached Lubbock, I found myself shooting halfway across the south side of town to get ahead of the storm/crowds cause I didn't want to get stuck in traffic with whatever was coming bearing down on me. I realized I was getting WAY to ahead of myself and flipped back, fortunately early enough to catch the Reese Center tornadoes, albeit low contrast.

Several times on Morton I found myself faced with the left turn scenario. I fortunately had the AWD option and spent a good majority of Morton (pre-Reese) on dirt roads, albeit it in the middle between the paved highway to the south and the more aggressive east/west to my north. I found that splitting the difference worked out well. For me, the bigger issue was being in congo lines at four-way stops. You'd be amazed how many people do not understand the concept of how those work (that happened to me on April 17 in Fremont and I had to make a 'Hail Mary' to salvation from the wind-driven baseballs that were starting to come down on that area).

I find I do that a lot (pre-position well ahead of the storm) in hopes the storm will do its thing closer to me and I'll have picked out my spot. It factors very much into my decision making, particularly on the southeast-movers where I am also trying to stay ahead of the hail. Again, I try very hard to stay off the main roads (even with the left turn looming at some point). I find as a whole that does me the best when that option is available. But it has absolutely cost me, either with contrast/distance or just driving away when something happens). This was the case with Akron 2025 when I was positioning to get ahead of that south-moving storm and it planted behind me and I had to flip back to get a view.

I know we always play the "it's gonna happen" card (the storm turns onto the congo line, yaddi yaddi yaddi), and sure, it's not a matter of if, but when, but statistics shows that while a giant inconvenience, the number of incidents remains low (even minor fender benders). The few times on Morton I was in the parade, I was able to find places on the shoulder to pull over to get my pictures and assess, and even if it took a few minutes, was able to accelerate my way into breaks within the line (which typically was moving slower than the posted speed limit due to the line just being slower than usual). It's not optimal, but the shoulder play DID allow me the opportunities to pull off, stop, observe, then merge into the line when available and continue on.

I don't think you should beat yourself over it... I think we all have all our things... and those things DO play into your decision making, whether you want them to or not. Unfortunately this is the new normal, and I think we're all working to adapt to this in our own ways. And unfortunately unless you're willing to play the lesser targets, it's something you have to account for.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Similar to @Brett Roberts, I was also surprised (and demoralized) to see so many chasers on the NM storms on Saturday 6/7. It was a low-end setup (it over-performed for sure, but that’s a separate issue) that I might not even have gone for, if I wasn’t also repositioning for the next day. But as my chase partner noted, it was a weekend, it was the only action that day, and if you’re a chase vacationer you’re going to go for it (OTOH, personally, as a chase vacationer, I don’t go after every low-end setup 4+ hours away just because I’m on a chase vacation). It wasn’t enough to impede the chase, it was more a realization that there may be no scenarios left without a caravan. Thankfully, at some point there were no roads to get closer anyway, and we were able to wait and let it come to us. Then we followed it on its west side.

Despite my point in my earlier post above, I did use dirt roads on Morton day and on 6/7 (I said I *hesitate* to take them, not that I *never* take them ). I’m actually a bit disappointed in myself for using them on Saturday, because they were very wet. They were high-quality and held up well, but it could easily have been a different story. We had had a great view of the initial wedge from the SW, but trying to stay close to it on dirt roads as it moved east and became invisible in dust and rain, while we tried to catch up driving east just south of the couplet in RFD-driven rain, was probably stupid. I’m not sure it really even helped us any, because our progress was slower than it would have been had we used the paved east road, even though that would have put us south with little visibility south of the wet RFD. But I was worried about being able to keep a visual on the meso and get back in the notch if we allowed ourselves to be south on the outside of the storm.

Then we used dirt roads in NM on Saturday 6/7, driving south on the west side of the storm. The roads were dry and our position meant we were in no danger whatsoever, but the dirt road became nothing more than tire tracks in grass, despite its appearance on Google Maps as a numbered road. It reinforced my fear of dirt roads that wind through the terrain and become “roads to nowhere.” Even Google Maps cannot be trusted to keep you on quality roads.

I agree that “caravan management” has become yet another variable to deal with in the heat of decision-making on the battlefield. We always tried to stop ahead of as many cars as possible when we pulled over, and we’re always conscious of which way our car was facing if we turned off into a side road. Avoiding getting caught at the back of the line became yet another criteria.

On the west side of LBB, later in the Morton lifecycle, we had two viewing locations where we saw no other chasers. I think we lucked out being “in the middle” - not close enough to see the tornado, other than to know it was there in the dust and rain and enjoy the exhilaration of the inflow at our back, but not as far away as others that were more south or southeast with a view of nothing but the wet RFD wrapping around the south side.

On Sunday 6/8 it was hard to stay close to the meso because of the Canyon. Interestingly, around 7pm we were at our closest point to the meso, north of Benjamin TX. A new tornado warning was issued, we saw a brief spinup, and there were no other chasers around. Not sure where everyone else was at that point.

 

[John Farley]

Brett's post above really rings true for me. I am by nature a fairly cautious chaser, owing in part to the fact that I ususally chase solo and I am sure also in part due to the fact that I am now legitimately "old" - 75. And that I am not outfitted with hail shields or anything like that. Two of the things I am perhaps "overly" cautious about date back to an experience on the same chase, May 21, 2014 east of Denver. First, I almost got overrun by an intense, intermittently tornadic supercell while trying to turn left into the massive conga line on the one east-west paved road in that area. It came down to a death-defying leftward blast into the one small gap I had seen in 10 minutes or waiting and getting pounded by the storm. I blasted, and made it, probably to the annoyance of the next driver coming from the west. Then later in the same chase, I nearly got stuck and/or slid in the ditch despite AWD on an unpaved wet road that did not look nearly as bad as it was. I have always been cautious about hail, and that day gave me two more things to be cautious about. Like James, I will occasionally take unpaved roads, but only if they are mainly dry and likely to stay that way. All of these elements of caution have played into a number of my chases this year, and certainly on June 5. With fewer of those cautions, I would have had a better view of the Rodgers tornado and might not have missed Morton before catching up to that storm. But I will still take those things over a totalled car or injury. I guess we all just have to add crowded roads to the list of things we are cautious about. Level of caution, of course, is a personal choice, but on many days, crowded roads are one more part of the calculation.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I'm one of the few that didn't chase in TX/NM and missed all the good stuff and sounds like some of the bad stuff too. The chaser hoards are definitely something to deal with almost every chase these days, but with that brings a different mentality from not just us, but others and in a dangerous way. I was out on a cell on May 28th near Beaver, OK where me and a few others were on the east cell where everyone else had played north. This was awesome until I had to get to Highway 412 where everyone had caught up. Once I had to turn left (and had to wait of course) on to 412 we were moving east in a conga line with the core to our north, where within a mile down the road there was a one lane stop light. One of the chasers in the conga line decided they didn't want to wait and passed four to five cars - including an RV - in a double yellow no passing zone, then proceed to run the red one lane stop light and cross the construction area well after the other side would have been green (which wasn't a short 100 yard bridge either, I don't believe the end was visible). Somehow they made it through, but they were living dangerously. It was obvious they didn't want to get run over by the core (nobody does) and was willing to risk it all to get out of the way of it. So on top of me not being able to move freely, there are others who create dangerous conditions that I also have no control over within the same line. If a person (or multiple people) decide to freak out like the guy I saw that day, who knows what could happen. The risk factor has definitely increased along with the attendance.

 

[JamesCaruso]

It came down to a death-defying leftward blast into the one small gap I had seen in 10 minutes

In that same situation in a regular (not chasing) scenario - bumper-to-bumper traffic on one road, and similar traffic on another road that’s perpendicular, with people trying to turn - traditional courtesy is to let people in, alternating one vehicle from each direction. Can’t we all operate under these same common courtesies while chasing?

 

[Brett Roberts]

In that same situation in a regular (not chasing) scenario - bumper-to-bumper traffic on one road, and similar traffic on another road that’s perpendicular, with people trying to turn - traditional courtesy is to let people in, alternating one vehicle from each direction. Can’t we all operate under these same common courtesies while chasing?

I generally agree. But IMO the worst situation is needing to make that left into a miles-long conga line moving at a steady 50 mph on the main highway. That's pretty much what I saw on Hwy 114 on the Morton storm, and seems a lot more common than truly bumper-to-bumper, sub-15 mph traffic (unless everyone's coming up on a town, or a tornado is actively crossing the main road, etc.). What usually happens is there are many dozen vehicles on the highway following each other somewhat closely at speed, and therefore no gaps large enough to gun it into without making the next conga-liner slam on their brakes.

It's easy for me to picture exactly what John described in 2014, because I've put myself in a similar position a small handful of times... and lived to regret it. The worst version involves 5 or 10 other chasers backed up behind you on the side road, all depending on you to gun it across lanes into a traffic gap that really isn't there, lest they all get run over by the core. Meanwhile, even courteous chasers on the main highway can't really justify slowing down or stopping the rolling conga line just to let you in. It sucks, and it's why I pretty much refuse to take N side options off the main highway once I sense a true conga line has formed.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

In that same situation in a regular (not chasing) scenario - bumper-to-bumper traffic on one road, and similar traffic on another road that’s perpendicular, with people trying to turn - traditional courtesy is to let people in, alternating one vehicle from each direction. Can’t we all operate under these same common courtesies while chasing?

Fear of being put in a bad spot and fear of losing positioning. Courtesy gets thrown out the window when you're trying to get the content.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

FWIW, traffic wasn't really a problem for me at Arnett until AFTER the tornadoes, apart from myself and a few other cars who were probably chasers who were all stuck behind a tanker trunk doing 5 under the limit westbound on US 60/OK-51 from at least Vici with no opportunities to pass on the hilly highway dotted with frequent construction zones (fortunately no single-lane traffic lights), which was frustrating but ended up not mattering unless you REALLY cared about getting up close to the couple of brief tornadoes that preceded the main EF3.

There was plenty of room to pull off along 283 before that one formed, likely because traffic was split between those of us who had decided to set up there, those chasers who wanted to get (or were already) closer on the unpaved grid, and those who were still rushing in from Kansas and had to settle for a shot further away still.

After that appeared to rope out (a remnant ground circulation continued for some time after that, nearly impacting several chasers who were much closer), after waiting for a few cars I had a comfortable amount of space to spin a uie and head north on 283, only to pull over after half a mile or so as the next (and as far as I know, final) tornado dropped straight ahead of us. I found a gap to get back in to head north after this, but it took a long time to be able to turn right back onto 60 and, even though the storm was moving relatively slowly, we all struggled to stay even with the area of interest from there, which would have been highly frustrating had the storm cycled to produce, say, a spectacular multivortex which coalesced into a high-contrast wedge, but as we all know that didn't happen.