I subscribe to Weather Bell Analytics and have for several months now. One thing that both Joe Bastardi and Joseph D'Aleo keep posting about is the similarity between the current La Nina event and what took place in 2008 and 1973-1975. If my memory serves me correctly 1974 was when the super outbreak occurred and 2008 was a prolific tornado year as well. They haven't gone so far as to say what I just mentioned, but the fact that they keep hammering on this information gives me plenty of hope for the 2012 severe storm season. Only time will tell, but I like what I am reading there and they haven't deviated from their point of view in several months. I realize there are many other variables to consider when it comes to global climatology and how a severe storm season plays out, but thought it was an interesting tidbit worth sharing.
Current La Nina event may continue into Spring 2012
- Thread starter Mark Blue
- Start date
William Monfredo
EF3
Back when I was subscribing to the paper version of StormTrack in the late 90s, I worked with data on El Nino and severe storms to see if there were any correlations and physical causes. And yes, the cold phase does increase the frequency of strong and violent twisters in some regions, specifically the mid-South and secondarily the Southern Low Plains.
And while one US region may have more significant storms, others have less. That's why the influence (up to 20 percent or so, which is actually a lot) gets washed out: people look at the lower 48 in total. Historically, people got frustrated when claims were exaggerated and no physical explanation was presented. The physical causes in short are bumped-around weather systems with changes that include an enhanced and displaced jet stream, and likely a stout, but breakable cap, as opposed to a weaker or unbreakable one.
And while one US region may have more significant storms, others have less. That's why the influence (up to 20 percent or so, which is actually a lot) gets washed out: people look at the lower 48 in total. Historically, people got frustrated when claims were exaggerated and no physical explanation was presented. The physical causes in short are bumped-around weather systems with changes that include an enhanced and displaced jet stream, and likely a stout, but breakable cap, as opposed to a weaker or unbreakable one.
