• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Confirmation of Richardson's power laws to make models better

Tomorrow's weather: Cloudy, with a chance of fractals

EDIT: Remove. Existing new thread here:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=22241


Interesting article that suggests an excellent possibility that forecast models can be vastly improved using fractals.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...oudy-with-a-chance-of-fractals.html?full=true

..."The results point to a new view of the atmosphere as a vast collection of cascade-like processes, with large structures the size of continents breaking down to feed ever-smaller ones, right down to zephyrs of air no bigger than a fly...."

..."The implications promise to transform the way we predict everything from tomorrow's local weather to the changing climate of the entire planet. "We may never be able to view the atmosphere and climate in the same way again," says team member Shaun Lovejoy of McGill University in Montreal, Canada...."
 
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Boiled down, the essential point is that many random (in the sense of stochastic) processes are self-dependent over a wide range of scales rather than composed of independent elements following a Random probability distribution. Many statistics of such processes are defined by a skewed "fat tail" distribution rather than the Gaussian bell curve.

The multifractal components of the Earth's atmospheric circulation are clear, i.e. "understood", when you look at the distribution of the model ensemble runs for example. The result of stochastic initialization is a lot more variation and skew than a Random distribution. However the ensemble mean is still an attractor for practical purposes. Theoretically it's possible for a butterfly in the west Pacific to result in an ice-ball Earth but the probability is vanishingly small.

The real question I see that is posed to the modelers is whether some initialization parameters to Bayesian/Monte-Carlo ensembles are incorrectly generated. I'm not in the know on this, but I suspect that this is being considered, because very smart people are involved. For example, snow/ice cover isn't distributed randomly, so its parametric values in Monte-Carlo simulation shouldn't be generated from a Random distribution. FWIW.
 
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