CHASE HOTLINE active for 2005

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
Ryan, your reaction is understandable, and why I posted what I did in a roundabout way. Psychologically it looks like a \"price increase\". The way I prefer to look at it is that the early signers took advantage of a very good deal. Tim isn't getting rich off CH, for sure. He needs enough revenue from it to justify his investments of money and time. For most of two months Tim is pretty tied down serving CH subscribers.

Well, to be empirical, it doesn't just look like a price increase, it is a price increase. The product was announced weeks ago as having a certain price. Now the price is almost double. You can rationalize that what was happening before was a sale, but it wasn't marked as a sale, nor was it explained that it was a limited-time-only offer.

Again, I'm trying hard not to sound like a whiner. I think it's a-okay that Tim bumped his prices, and I wish him success, as his work is great. But I don't know how this helps the product in the long term. I also like to read The New Yorker. If they suddenly started charging, out of the blue, $300 a year to subscribe, I'd probably do without. Your subscribers dry up and you're SOL. The less people who subscribe, the less dough you make. What's unique about e-publishing is that it's not significantly harder to e-publish canned info to 10,000 people than it is to e-publish canned info to 10 people. Each new subscriber requires almost zero new overhead, and so after your initial overhead is covered, each subscription is pure profit. Maybe the storm-chaser market is too small and specialized to work on the normal subscription model. Tim likely knows way more about this than I do, since I'm not the guy running his business.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Maybe the storm-chaser market is too small and specialized to work on the normal subscription model. Tim likely knows way more about this than I do, since I'm not the guy running his business.

I think you hit it right on the head. Anything to do with such a small audience is generally a "hobby" type business. In a situation like that, the prices would have to be higher to compensate for the lack of subscribers given the small audience - Or so I assume :lol:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Actually this gets into something called price elasticity of demand. If I double my price, it doesn't necessarily follow that business dries up. What I've found (late, albeit) is that the Chase Hotline is rather inelastic, which means that if I double the price, I can still expect to get 3 signups instead of 4, so I come out ahead by doing so. And it behooves me to make that price increase.

I'm not going to say that I'm an expert at setting prices, though... figuring it out is an ongoing process and I hate having to make changes like what I've done. As others have mentioned, what I'm earning right now is barely enough to make it worthwhile... certainly the total gross is getting up into the thousands, which is a tidy sum, but when you spread that over 60 days it gets quite thin. Then I have to figure out if I'm better off writing books or working on Digital Atmosphere.

Tim

 

[Mikel Shively]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
The $90 is like the cost of a credit or two at a community college, assuming you could find a course anywhere like that.
.

Man. I wanna go to THAT college

 

[Tyler Allison]

As a seller of weather related info to weather hobbiests and the like I can tell you from my limited experience that those kinds of folks (like you and me) tend to fall into one of three categories.

1. Will never pay for data/service so don't ask them to
2. Will pay a VERY nominal fee...like $5 a month...maybe
3. Will pay whatever it takes...they value the service.

You will always have the #3 crowd no matter how much you charge (within reason). You will never have the #1 crowd if you intend to charge.

So the real "hard" market is the #2 crowd. At some point you have to just make the decision that you can't make it worth doing at the rates they are willing to pay.

Example:
If you give the info away for free you'll have 1,000 customers.
If you charge $5 a month you'll have 100 customers.
If you charge $100 a month you'll have 5 customers.

Regardless...you'll have $500 at the end of the month (if you charge) but you'll have less headache, less overhead, less support costs and more time to work on other things if you choose the higher price option. It really pains me when I have to make those kinds of decisions, and Im sure it does Tim, but it's a fact of life.

There is a point of critical mass where dropping the price to $5 a month can make financial sense. But until then, it makes better sense to give a good service to the 5 customers instead of crappy service and running yourself into financial/personal ruin for the 100.

Im sure Tim would love to do it for free (I know I would love to give my weather data away for free!)...but until someone sets up an endowment it aint gonna happen.

 

[Darren Addy]

Originally posted by mrobinett+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mrobinett)</div>

I see $49.95, I purchased one yesterday morning..[/b]

(posted on 4/24, so -if correct- the price went up between the 23rd and the 24th)

<!--QuoteBegin-David Wolfson
Psychologically it looks like a \"price increase\".

Psychologically has nothing to do with it. It IS a price increase. Psychologically you can rationalize why it doesn't bother you or how it is worth the money at twice the price, and how you are committing treason by saying anything about it since it was done by Tim Vasquez but Ryan is simply calling a spade a spade and saying how it affected him.

Considering this a forum and there are rules for the Marketplace forum such as. . .

"(1) Only ONE thread is allowed per user or company. Keep your promotional writeups and inventory in that post and edit it as needed. If you wish to post an important, newsworthy update, you may also delete your original post and create a new one. Ask a moderator if you need help deleting your original thread."

. . . it is a little surprising to me that the original post was not edited to reflect the price increase. (could still be done). If nothing else, a heads-up could have been given that the price was going to have to go up so any fence-sitters could act quickly. While this is certainly not required, it would have helped those who intended to buy the $49 package but had not yet done so.

Nobody is questioning the value of Tim's service or his ability to name his price. But when you post that a service "looks like it is going to be" available "for 2005" and you state a price in an editable post - one can certainly be forgiven for being startled to find that the price has increased that substantially 13 days later.

Darren Addy
Kearney, NE

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Good point -- I will find the original post and edit it.

By the way, I am appreciative that so many people care about the service. A couple of weeks ago I figured we were all washed up because of the XM radio gadgetry.

Tim

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Good point -- I will find the original post and edit it.

By the way, I am appreciative that so many people care about the service. A couple of weeks ago I figured we were all washed up because of the XM radio gadgetry.

Tim

I would hazard a guess that your service is far more valuable on a chase than XM gadgetry. XM gives you radar, but radar is useless when you're busting 200 miles from a storm, which is where you can end up if your forecast is wrong.

I dunno why your sub rates were so low at $50. The chase community may simply be too small support mass subscriptions. Many people may feel comfortable enough with their own ability to forecast targets that they don't want to shell out $$ for what they perceive as unneeded help. I think many chasers just plain may not know about the service. I would never have noticed it sitting here in this thread were I not specifically waiting to see if you'd be announcing service for this year. Are you allowed to use the occasional banner ad? (Dunno if Tempest/BNVN has an exclusive contract.) If you do, you should consider an ad -- heck, I'll make ya one for free -- I think a lot more chasers, especially the newer chasers, would use your service if they knew about it. But probably not at the $90 price point. I think $90 subscribers are primarily people who have previous experience/knowledge of your service and literally seek it out and pay almost anything for it, not people who read about it first here in this forum.

 

[Bill Hark]

By the way, I am appreciative that so many people care about the service. A couple of weeks ago I figured we were all washed up because of the XM radio gadgetry.
Tim

I have XM and absolutely love it but I am still signed up with Chase Hotline. I have used the service for years and have had great results. XM is another tool in the arsenal but it doesn't replace Tim's service. In fact, I would say that Tim's service can negate the need for XM but XM doesn't negate the need for Tim's service.
Although I won't be chasing until later in May, I am looking forward to the forecasts as I cyberchase. I have become a better forecaster comparing my target areas and Tim's. I think the current price is very reasonable (XM is outrageous) considering the amount of time it takes to forecast and to follow the storms.

Bill Hark

 

[B Ozanne]

I don't want to keep beating a dead horse, but I might have done it a little differently.

To ward off procrastination I would have encouraged people to sign up early with a lower rate. Then, on a pre-determined date I would raise the rate. That way you have an idea of how many people are going to sign up early on and you have their commitment.

Ski resorts do it all the time with season passes. They encourage people to sign up as early as possible with low rates. That way, before the season starts, they can generate significant cash to fund startup and operation.

 

[David Wolfson]

TTI I would have signed up as soon as I heard about CH being on for this season. When I checked sometime last month I didn't see any indication of Tim's doing it this year, which didn't surprise me given his experience last year. The first I heard of it was this thread (no email to former clients that I got, anyway), and by the time I signed up it was already too late for the introductory "special". That said, my comments still stand. Reasonable price for a very worthwhile service.

 

[B Ozanne]

Just signed up today.

What next? How do I get the access numbers and let Tim know where to send my SMS messages?

 

[Scott Olson]

Tim, have you sent SMS messages to a Cellular one (Cellular West) phone? I have found no other way to send SMS messages to my phone from the Internet except from the Cellular One SMS page. Even the services that list Cellular one don't work. I might go for it even at $89.95. I know it will be helpful since right now im in between being 'good' and having no idea what im talking about. LOL... Honestly though, I've come a long way over the past year. Now Skew-t's, hodographs and upper air I can do. But when it comes to real-time anaylsis im just not to the point where I can look at a couple maps and see the small-scale factors and immediately be able to account those into the bigger picture. I have heard from many people that Tim is very good at this and that the Chase Hotline is well worth the money.

-Scott.

 

[B Ozanne]

I know there is no weather, but has the service started for anybody else?

I haven't heard a thing from Tim

 

[Robert Dewey]

I know there is no weather, but has the service started for anybody else?

I haven't heard a thing from Tim

You might hear something today, as it's the first day the service starts (May 1st)...