CHASE CASE 6

[David Wolfson]

*Blink* Woke up and, crap... I'm outta here for points south via I-29. The northern play just looks too linear. Heading for Chanute, KS, around 18:30Z, but making my next stop Olathe, KS, by 16:30Z, to chew on some food and current obs.

Decided before looking at the 12Z Outlook. Uh, huh. No change to the plan.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Getting in late in this...sorry Matt...I would have just stayed the night here in ICT per the 0z update. After looking at the 12z obs looks like a sfc low is sitting just east of the Liberal, KS area. I think i'll wait a couple more updates here in Wichita, KS before I make any move. Front is very evident on satellite and I like to see what looks to be the LL clouds burning off already. Might have to eventually make a move just across the Ok/Ks border...but for now i'll stay put.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

EDIT: Just read the 12Z convective outlook. Ick! But I'm sticking to my guns with the northern play and will see how my reasoning above plays out.

Me too...Probably models forecast gives a better shear/instability to the south option. I should drive 6-7 hours to arrive in time to Wichita,KS. Anyway, IA option seems not bad, so I think I will mantain my north target, drifting a little south to Omaha,Ne hoping that there's gonna be a nice action.

 

[JHardy]

Blasted out of Hebron NE and heading to Topeka KS. I need to get south east and try to out run the front that slide thru. I think I went to far north going to Hebron. Oh well lets see what will happen.

 

[Randall Cooper]

After taking a second look at the data, im gonna mosey on down to Emporia, KS and wait for more data there. Should be to Emporia around 17z.

 

[Chris Heater]

I'm going to haul it down to Junction City, KS and see where I'm at from there. I may drop down to Wichita, KS when storm begin to fire, but I'm going to wait for now on that

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

After taking a second look at the data, im gonna mosey on down to Emporia, KS and wait for more data there. Should be to Emporia around 17z.

Same here. Emporia, KS. Steak 'n Shake in Olathe, then some oil well photos in Baldwin City along the way.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Getting into this late, but since the MDT is just north of my house, why not. I will move up to the OK Panhandle at set in Slapout, OK for a few hours. There is a convienence store, and a few shade trees. Great place to kill a few hours.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Rut roh...deep moisture looks trapped in Kansas so better get my butt south and on the move. Got lots of driving ahead of me...and this to even get to I-70. It may be even south of there based on the frontal position. Not sure I can make the expected triple pt. position, but will try my best to get into position. Best of shear and instability combo (EHI) will be situated by afternoon/evening. Move me down to at least Salina KS and then will need to make afternoon chase adjustment.

 

[Matt Gingery]

15Z UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/5k3k2o.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/o5dl02.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/15yghoh.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/24xop41.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/11h4egw.gif

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/2vt49ol.gif

SURFACE ANALYSIS

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2q8t27l.gif

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/9vbo5k.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/ac7thk.gif

15Z SYNOPTIC: http://i45.tinypic.com/wl41fp.gif

15Z WIND PROFILER: http://i49.tinypic.com/sazezb.gif

WAYFARING: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60663

 

[Verne Carlson]

The cold front is moving fast and overtaking my location at Storm Lake, IA. Backing south to Adair, IA where the winds a southeasterly and there's some better clearing.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I actually like where I am in Emporia, KS! With a dewpoint of 63 and the surface winds out of the southeast, I feel im in a pretty good spot for now! Will grab lunch in a couple hours and check more data as it rolls out. Damon, or any others that might be heading to Emporia, feel free to join me!

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

I will be headed to Woodward, OK for now.

Edit: After seeing the 16z outlook I will turn around and sit in Slapout, OK for a bit longer.

"AIR MASS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTWARDINTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY EVENING." I thought the front had blasted past me, but since it is coming back I will wait around a while.

 

[Matt Gingery]

16Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND SOUTHWEST KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN
IA...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST UT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM P28-GAG-PVW. COMBINATION OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RETREAT OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY 00Z...WEST EDGE
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A REGIONAL
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES.

...CO...
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
CO AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG/.
HOWEVER...RATHER COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO AND INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES.

...TX/OK/KS...
OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREE THAT VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CAP WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHEN
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY GREAT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPHS /EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 250 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35-50 KNOTS/ FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ANY STORM THAT CAN ANCHOR ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE IN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCLS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY. STRONG
TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

...KS/NEB/IA...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO CENTRAL KS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS A GREATER
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I missed the 12z update, but after looking things over I believe the southern target is the way to go. As Brian said it appears moisture is bottled up over the southern Plains. With a secondary surface low developing in southeast Colorado I would expect the boundary to retreat during the day. What I do not like about this situation is storms look to develop along a retreating front and not along a true dryline. I am also concerned about the mid-level winds being somewhat parallel to the front. I am headed to Canadian, TX. According to Delorme that is a 5 hour drive from Salina, KS, so if I were leaving at 9am I will be there around 2pm.