CHASE CASE 6

[Dean Baron]

I'll head to Lincoln, NE too. Get some sleep and chew on some data in the morning.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm a callow beginner when it comes to identifying cyclogenesis, but I see what could be the makings of a surface low over by Ansley, NE. Will see what comes of that with the morning run.

 

[JHardy]

Still hanging out in Hebron Nebraska.

 

[David Wolfson]

I don't want to be too far west or south because I think the dryline/CF will have some push behind it tomorrow. Going to bed early in Fremont, NE, and planning to ponder the 12Z data seriously. I don't have a really strong feeling yet where to target yet in a 500 mile long corridor. Hopefully the mid and upper levels will give better clues in the morning.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm in late on this one but I'm still in time Ok, I'm heading for Alma, Ne with a good road option. Good chase to all.

 

[Matt Gingery]

12Z UPDATE​

SURFACE ANALYSIS:

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/1xgmh.gif

N PLAINS: http://i46.tinypic.com/2lbi882.gif

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/1zvsuf6.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/281zqcp.gif

12Z SYNOPTIC: http://i46.tinypic.com/alit5w.gif

UPPER AIR

300MB: http://i50.tinypic.com/33l2wx1.gif

500MB: http://i48.tinypic.com/2s6slme.gif

700MB: http://i50.tinypic.com/154g1nt.gif

850MB: http://i49.tinypic.com/fumjcg.gif

WIND PROFILER: http://i45.tinypic.com/6ykuua.gif

SOUNDINGS

AMARILLO: http://i46.tinypic.com/2egbrth.gif

DALLAS: http://i47.tinypic.com/2wbvric.gif

DODGE CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/2nbzqdy.gif

MIDLAND: http://i45.tinypic.com/iodgjt.gif

N PLATTE: http://i45.tinypic.com/mkygl3.gif

OKLAHOMA CITY: http://i47.tinypic.com/30lyv5j.gif

OMAHA: http://i47.tinypic.com/2n1uzb.gif

RAPID CITY: http://i45.tinypic.com/15w1f5.gif

SPRINGFIELD, MO: http://i50.tinypic.com/9tpngh.gif

VISIBLE SATELLITE

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/2vnp89j.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/149axq9.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/bfqhw4.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE:

MIDWEST: http://i48.tinypic.com/2hs3sxe.gif

N PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/23vhw69.gif

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2qnbm0x.gif

-CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE POSTED LATER THIS MORNING-

WAYFARING: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60663

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

OK, after waking up, I've decided on a mosey down to Saint Joseph, Mo. The front moved quicker than I expected. I can't even see a dryline anymore, dang it.

 

[Verne Carlson]

12z data seems to show best juxtaposition of upper and lower winds in n IA. Leaving Russell, KS and heading up to Storm Lake, IA

 

[Dean Baron]

Gotta stay ahead of the front. Leaving Lincoln, NE towards Atlantic, IA. May stop before I get there but for now that's the target. Going over data during the drive.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I've got 5 hours of driving to Sioux City,IA. Good wind and nice dews up there. Interesting setup today.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Holy cow! Glad i stayed home last night! That front moved fast! Im gonna stay right here in St Joseph and wait for more data. If anyone who targets St Joseph for now wants to grab some breakfast sokewhere in town, let me know!

 

[Matt Gingery]

12Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...NWRN OK AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWWD
INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NEWD TODAY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA BY MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION TODAY...EMERGING INTO
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEWD FROM ERN ND INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES OVER SERN CO INTO NERN NM
LATER TODAY. WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ASSUME A SLOW EWD
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA
SWWD INTO CNTRL KS. SRN HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS MAY CAUSE WRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NRN TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MID MO VALLEY...

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD ALONG FRONT...LARGELY DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS
AND/OR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA
MAY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED FRONT.

THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEARS /EBS/ OF 30-40 KT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO MORE A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH TIME WITH THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

...KS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INDICATE THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH MEAN MIXING
RATIOS OF 12-15 G/KG OBSERVED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF TX/OK.
HOWEVER...OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO SRN HIGH
PLAINS SHOWED GENERALLY 6.5-7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL TEMPER THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY TODAY.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON S OF FRONT.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG FRONT BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN KS THE OK AND NRN TX
PNHDLS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AT THIS TIME OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM...PRIOR TO
MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ALONG STATIONARY OR RETREATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EBS OF 45-55 KT/ WILL EXIST
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH EBS OF GENERALLY
30-40 KT FORECAST FARTHER E ALONG FRONT OVER CNTRL KS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST THIS EVENING /00-03Z/ WITH ANY MATURE
SUPERCELLS AS 0-1 KM SRH INCREASES TO 200-300 M2/S2.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH
WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Once again I find myself in agreement with Verne, and will join him in Storm Lake, IA. That area looks to be primed for good UA support. Plus, the surface low that was forming in central NE last night is now moving right over me here in Omaha, and if it holds together and translates northeast, then I'll have a triple point to work with. I don't like the clouds, but eastern SD is mostly clear and Sioux City is just an hour away if I need to head west.

EDIT: Just read the 12Z convective outlook. Ick! But I'm sticking to my guns with the northern play and will see how my reasoning above plays out.

 

[Matt Sellers]

With the front now an hour+ to my east, I must move - will go east then south via I-90 and I-29 toward Onawa, IA.

 

[MatthewCarman]

When the data came out this morning I left Beatrice, Nebraska after the cold front moved further east except down south and headed south into Kansas where the instability and dew points are higher. Now a MOD risk is out and I will head to Witchita, Kansas. I should beable to make it.