2026-04-17 EVENT: IA/IL/WI/MO/KS/OK

[Luke Penney]

The upper Midwest looks to be getting yet another severe-weather event on Friday. (To add a joke to the discussion on whether Tornado Alley might or might not be moving, maybe this year indicates Tornado Alley is moving to the Midwest .) Severe potential also goes down to the south Plains, but I don't normally look closely there because it's so far from me.

At first glance, I wasn't expecting much from Friday in the Midwest since it's a cold front with high-level winds at a somewhat-similar orientation as the front: That's a recipe for linear storms undercut by cold air. However, GFS and NAM both forecast storms ahead of the front that are initially at-least-somewhat discrete and in a tornado-favorable environment. NAMST and RAP forecast the storms in a messier mode, but those models tend to do that in general, and they do forecast favorable conditions.

This time, the models are also looking quite similar to each other, two days out. If the outlook is still like this on Friday, I'd favor a target in or near southeast Iowa (at least, within the area that's not too far a drive from me), with an expectation that storms are to likely initiate in early afternoon.

 

[Dan Robinson]

A positively-tilted wave, cold front, boundary-parallel flow and the closest storms more than 4 hours away is usually a no-go call for me. That might be me having to work Friday night talking, but I think better things are coming to spend $4.50/gallon on.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Southern Plains target looks quite compelling - pretty classic triple point setup with a nice tight dryline. There are things to nitpick if you wanted to see a really high-end setup, like maybe surface winds more backed for better low-level hodographs, but really there is not much not to like about the thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. And there likely will be some localized better backing that is not currently resolved by the models. Only real downside as a chase day is the double-edged sword of a fairly obvious target, and NW OK is going to draw a swarm in that area on a Friday. To my eyes the NAM depicts more difluence aloft a little further south along the dryline, but either way it’s a relatively small area of interest with details to be resolved on the day-of.