Chase Case 12

[Matt Gingery]

I have chase case #12 ready to go!

0Z Data is here to give an idea of how the system traverses across the CONUS. 12 Z data is the current map. The next update will be at 18Z




Synoptic Surface Conditions 00Z:

http://i41.tinypic.com/2pqs2a9.gif

Soundings as of 00Z:

Springfield, Missouri Sounding:

http://i44.tinypic.com/259eiyg.gif

Oklahoma City Sounding:

http://i40.tinypic.com/2aiiuxs.jpg

Topeka Kansas Sounding:

http://i42.tinypic.com/118zhqt.gif

Dallas, Texas Sounding:

http://i42.tinypic.com/2ro3xn5.gif

UPPER AIR CHARTS 12Z

850 MB: http://i43.tinypic.com/2ih9gme.gif

700 MB: http://i41.tinypic.com/1zg4z5t.gif

500 MB: http://i43.tinypic.com/hst0ep.gif

300 MB: http://i42.tinypic.com/2qdmkol.gif

Convective Outlook Day 3. I went back 3 days on this, it gives a general take on where everything takes place. Otherwise you would have guessed!

Convective Outlook: http://i41.tinypic.com/2cpdbvp.gif

The only visible satellite I could locate:

00Z Visible: http://i43.tinypic.com/5x09.gif




Next Update Will Be the 12 z Saturday Late Afternoon, or Early Evening. I will throw in a brief discussion update early, say before noon. . .

Good Luck!!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Glad you put that up here, because I'm about five minutes away from posting ... guess mine will be #13.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Hmmm...I may start off in Medicine Lodge, KS and go from there.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Due to the strong winds aloft around the base of the trough... the pronounced EML advecting overtop the area of concern by as early as the evening before... and the shallow nature of the BL moisture even down south where the higher dewpoints are... I think the dryline will keep east pretty quickly during the day... so I'm gonna setup in southeastern Kansas... somewhere near Girard.... and see what the day has in store.

 

[Joel Wright]

Hmm. Do not like the highly veered winds at 850mb. Not overly impressed with this setup, but I guess if I was chasing I would start out in Springfield Missouri.

 

[Derek Weston]

Dodge City. 850s make this tricky.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I will start at my house til the next update.

 

[Paul Austin]

I'll start out on Moline, KS. Depending on the mixing speed of the DL and the WF lifting, I may have to reposition further west or even east. Presently, I like the Springfield sounding, but things could get interesting in central OK if the DL moves slower than I expect. I do think 850mb winds will veer a little over time in response to approaching trough and DL. Hopefully, storms will fire near the WF not too far from my location.

So, what does a guy have to do to get some decent grub in Moline?

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I'm going to target Kansas City, Missouri for now. Strong enough WAA at 850mb to make me think a secondary surface low may develop somewhere along the KS-NE border, and the Topeka sounding looks to have the most potential out of the four that were presented.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Initial Target: Cameron, MO until next update.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll start off in Ottawa, KS again. Not exactly sure what to make of the setup yet but maybe it will become more clear with the next update.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Looks like it could be a big day. Gotta love the negative tilt on that 300mb map and the fact that the short wave is rounding the base at 12z. Storms should fire pretty early today. 850s are strongly veered but I can't imagine they'll stay that way as the sfc low in CO should deepen throughout the day. I'm going to start off in Manhattan, KS and head down to Aggieville for a few sodas and some lunch at So Long Saloon.

 

[Matt Gingery]

THE DAY IS HEATING UP. EMERGENCY BULLETIN OUT OF NORMAN. . . .



MD #1: http://i44.tinypic.com/2dafuhu.jpg

MD #2: http://i42.tinypic.com/15nlw1z.gif

Radar 10 am cdt: http://i39.tinypic.com/zix160.gif


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 06Z THROUGH 12Z

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE TOP/OAX/EAX WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO UPGRADE SERN NEB...NERN
KS AND NWRN MO TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AT 13Z.

H5 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 210 METERS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN
ALONG THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL KS AS
INHIBITION IS ERODED. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /H5 FLOW OF 105 KTS
OVER OKLA...WITH AOA 60 KTS INTO ERN KS/.

THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CELLS...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A MIXED MODE OF LEWPS/BOWS WITH TIME.
NONETHELESS...BACKED SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E/NE OF THE SFC LOW/WARM
FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AS THE STORMS
MOVE ENEWD AT 30-40 KTS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NWRN MO. VERY
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.

Texas/Oklahoma 10z

...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTN FROM ECNTRL
OK SWD TO PARTS OF ERN TX...AND EWD INTO AR...

ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ECNTRL OK...WITH LATEST
TULSA OK RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING INTENSE MID LEVEL CORES. LATEST WV
IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL KS/OK...AND
THIS IS LIKELY AGITATING THE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM
NORMAN OK SHOWED AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CAPE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING. SPECIAL 15Z
SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTS STORMS ARE ROOTED NEAR 700MB.
STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AROUND 40 KT/ AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
LARGE HAIL.

 

[B. Kendrick]

I will head to Tulsa Oklahoma for now.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'll be overnighting in the KC area for good highway options in all directions -- Independence, MO. The synoptic features look to be very progressive and I think this is an early-season triple-point play, but a lot can change in twelve hours. I think I'm somewhere in the middle of a rather large area of interest at this point, so I'll get up early for the 12Z data and be prepared to get on the road.

Ed.: I guess there were some MDs issued while I was sleeping... zzzzzzzzzz.