Chase Case #11

  • Thread starter Thread starter Dennis Dennison
  • Start date Start date

Dennis Dennison

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dennis Dennison said:
Ok-first try for me,,,,I am going to make this simple and quick
Below is ALL the info you will get

Where you going to be?
Bonus if you name the date
Remember this is all you have to work with!
Click to expand...

I'm shooting for Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Really like that imaginary warm front that ought to push through in some undetermined amount of time.
 
I'll take Tulsa, Oklahoma.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'll sit in Norman, OK for now, get my first glimpse of the SPC building, looking at heading east though and maybe north. For some reason southeast Kansas is calling me...

EDIT: Scratch that. I drove past the SPC, wasnt all that exciting, now heading up towards Stillwater, OK. Kansas is still calling my name...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nice to be able to get in on one of these threads early! And you are making it more challenging with out giving us the times for these graphics - and no sfc plots!

I like the warm front in Arkansas - say for the heck of it Atkins, Arkansas.

But with those impressive speed maxes coming round the long waves at 250 and 500, maybe anywhere under the large upper difluent zone that looks like it will evolve over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys could be stage set for violent tornadoes (given sufficiency of other key ingredients).

Have a sneaking hunch this is April 3, 1974!
 
Well, I assume that if I was on top of my game, I would be already heading east on I-70 and currently be in Indianapolis. My target would be Dayton Ohio for this event. Good luck everyone! I hope I am not dropping the ball. All the WAA is located across S. Texas, and conditions look real favorable across Dixie Alley. Im playing the warm front myself.
 
Gee, I don't think so Patrick. Back in the olden days, there wasn't satellite. Weather men pointed at cardboard props with pool cue's. Back then they were wacky weathermen. What makes you think it is the super outbreak? This looks like any standard run of the mill 1000mb low. I doubt this event produces more than 5 total tornadoes. Are we supposed to send I.M. to Dennis to what we think it is, so we don't play spoiler.
:D

P.S. I really like that profile pic of a pancake stack. Did you take that pic? That is some real nice structure if I say so. . .Nice striations
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm opting for Wichita Falls, TX. But that 850 map is really throwing me a curve ball. I like the moisture tongue moving up through Texas, and the H25 and H5 jet streaks, but the only 850s that don't appear to be severely veered appear to be well off to the east and north, up around Springfield, MO, IL, IA, etc. Not sure what to do with that, or whether I'm even understanding that map correctly. To me, it looks like moisture and winds are disengaged, at least at the 850 mb level. Don't know what the surface winds are doing. Mmmph...Wichita Falls it is.

Second choice would be Springfield and hope that moisture advects east and north; if that happens, it could be a good confluence of shear, helicity, and instability.
 
So I am certain the satellite pic give it away--I was just trying something--you all are very sharp and know your weather history.

I hope not too many get angry with my posting the results--as I am pretty sure this was just too easy.

Even if you do not know when this was--look at these final results, check them against the maps posted, perhaps something of interest will click for you in future chases


http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/122_0.gif
 
Dennis Dennison said:
So I am certain the satellite pic give it away--I was just trying something--you all are very sharp and know your weather history.

I hope not too many get angry with my posting the results--as I am pretty sure this was just too easy.

Even if you do not know when this was--look at these final results, check them against the maps posted, perhaps something of interest will click for you in future chases


http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/122_0.gif
Click to expand...


not the sat pic... the 500mb pic gave it away for me :)
 
Well, for sure (by the surface temperatures) this isn't peak chase season -- more like October I think. I don't see a time, but these data look like mid-day, i.e. 18Z, to me, from the lighting of the satellite picture. You wouldn't catch me here at this time in RL, but I'm going northeast of Birmingham to Gadsden, AL. It just seems like there's enough Theta-e potential underneath some 700h dryness with convergence along the stalling sw/ne oriented front, and upper difluence coming in from upstream. Heh. You like to make this easy, don't you, Dennis! :p

Ed: Hay!!! I didn't even get a chance to clean off the windshield!.... :-)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah that was one heck of a warm advection surge into the Ohio Valley that day...and the nose of a powerful 500mb jet. Very nasty combination along the warm front and in the wide warm sector. Can I put me down for Xenia OH or Brandenburg KY ?? :cool:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

William Monfredo
New Mexico thru the Lens
Replies
1
Views
355
Bob Schafer
Bob Schafer
adlyons
State of the Chase Season 2024
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
247
Views
27K
Jamie H
Jamie H
Tony Laubach
'Not Feeling It' Chase Burnout?
2
Replies
23
Views
2K
Jamie H
Jamie H
JamesCaruso
Minimalist Chase Forecasting: Avoiding Analysis Paralysis and Separating the Signal from the Noise
2
Replies
28
Views
2K
RRogers
RRogers
Mikayla Norris
2024-05-23 REPORTS: OK
Replies
11
Views
2K
Paul Bird
Paul Bird
Back
Top