ATLANTIC: Hurricane Sandy

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Chicago, IL and Naples, FL
Some reluctance making this post given, among other matters, the almost 180 degree turn east required (Wilma-like?), eastern Cuba and/or Haiti do seem somewhat at risk late next week on some models.
 
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Onward, TD18 and now TS Sandy, it would seem that if further intensification were to occur now would be (thru tomorrow) the time. Will be interesting to see what the 11am NHC update bringsr. Meanwhile still have next week and the divergent models (ECMWF and GFS).Euro Oct 29.jpg
 
This is starting to look interesting... it all depends on that big low up above the great lakes with the trough extending down through the US. Thats what is going to kick sandy offshore... A little bit slower, a little bit weaker, and it may allow sandy to ride up the coast. The GFS/Euro consensus is just offshore at this point. Both really ramp its strength though, showing a deep and broad system.
 
Sandy upped to Hurricane status since earlier today, I note the following nationwide NWS posting for additional soundings request:


000
NOUS42 KWNO 241816
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES...


SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP
 

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It is interesting to see such a strong westward component to the storm track even at such high latitudes late in the season, as suggested by some models, most notably the 12z GFS. Very interesting. Not sure there is such a storm, moving that direction for more than a short a distance, in the historical record. If there is, I have not heard of it.
 
As a possible analogue, Hazel, 1954? I haven't looked at the synoptic scale setup of Hazel recently, but it was an October storm that took a surprisingly northwestward and northward track from the eastern Bahamas.
 
Some of the recent runs have Sandy going even further westward at a much higher latitude, in the Gulf of Maine. I suppose the best comparison is the unnamed "perfect storm" which did have a nice westward track to it, although its core didn't quite make it to the US land.
 
The surge will be on the right side. That is the biggest threat. This is a more direct approach angle to the NY/NJ coast than most other storms on the record. Especially if you consider the large lumbering wind field and the fairly impressive forecasts from both the GFS and euro for about 950mb. This storm might actually be worth some of the hype that was so unwisely thrown at Irene. High tide near JFK airport is 8-9 oclock for the relevant period.

The rain will be on the left side, as is expected with a storm undegoing ET. So if the storm landfalls on the Jersey coast, the heaviest rain gets dumped on BWI/DC.

The wind will mostly be on the right side, and could cause quite a few outages, although the leaves will mostly carry away with the first gusts at this time of year.
 
I was hoping for another Delmarva intercept like. I did on Irene last year.
Now looking like this will landfall as a TS with no eye to target.

I am gonna play it by ear and shoot for NE quadrant tornadoes which I think will be on/near I-95, maybe NJ.

I am betting this will be like Agnes in 72.

More later,

Truman
 
So the latest NHC advisory just came in...

Can someone with greater tropical weather knowledge than me please explain how hurricane hunters reported maximum sustained winds of 51 mph with this system when they flew in, yet the NHC still has this thing progged as a 75 mph hurricane? Is nothing based on actual observations anymore? I mean it's not like it's 5 or 10 mph over what was being reported.. but 24 mph. That seems like a very high discrepancy.

This seemed to be an issue with Hurricane HypeIrene too. Is this just another way to hype this thing up or get people to pay attention? To keep it worded as a hurricane?

It's amazing that it even has tropical characteristics and is still considered to be a warm core system. With the current temperature observations and just the look of it on satellite, it sure doesn't look anything like a hurricane, but rather a large extratropical low pressure system. But then again, I just may be dreaming things up..
 
Its undergoing the process of ET, but its still got plenty of tropical characteristics. Its got a very warm core according to all the models. It doesnt quite have big fronts yet, and is fueled in part by surface ocean heat processes. Think of it as a hybrid storm now until landfall, most likely. And yes, public attention probably does have some part to play in the storms remaining a hurricane in the latest updates.
 
Hurricane hunters just recorded 75kt at 700mb, and pressures continue to fall. So ya, that is pretty much a legit low end cat 1 now. She is following the model guidance quite well, in terms of both track and intensity. Look at the satellite images... look at the size of this thing!
 
Hurricane hunters just recorded 75kt at 700mb, and pressures continue to fall. So ya, that is pretty much a legit low end cat 1 now. She is following the model guidance quite well, in terms of both track and intensity. Look at the satellite images... look at the size of this thing!

I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?
 
I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?


Look at US water vapor animations. You will see why it could turn left so hard.

Tim

Sent from my BlackBerry 9850
 
Good day all,

Hurricane Sandy will indeed take a left turn because of the negative tilt short wave that is basically undercutting to the SOUTH of Sandy. The cooler waters off the NE USA and low pressure aloft will cause a transition to an extratropical low just before landfall near NJ. The center will not have an eyewall, and be a broad and diffuse low, much like an ET cyclone, but have a MASSIVE area of wind stress extending many hundreds of miles (with 50-60 MPH sustained winds + higher gusts) and blowing across long fetches of ocean. The western Atlantic basin is already in an extremely agitated state from Sandy to say the least. Marine areas should be the hardest hit.

sandy12b.jpg


Above: This is the 15+ foot swell waves on a beautiful day (Oct 28) here in Palm Beach County, Florida. Sandy is indeed a monster offshore, but the sheer size is the "weapon" ... Not the actual wind speeds.

sandy12a.jpg


Above: The entire ocean turns "white to the horizon" off Boynton Beach, FL on Sunday, Oct 28 as a set wave from Sandy's ground swell arrives from the NE. Storm surge was even a problem, flooding homes as far south as Fort lauderdale, closing highway A1A and making some roads impassible at high tide - All with a 30 knot OFFSHORE wind from the WNW.

The main threat from Sandy will be STORM SURGE and HIGH WAVES ... Wind damage will be exacerbated by long duration / size of the storm. Pretty much a nor' easter on steroids!
 
Looks like the timing of main landfall effects will be after dark late tomorrow into early Tuesday AM. This will make chasing especially hazardous. There may be a lot of inexperienced chasers out there simply because of the unusual location... so be extra safe!


W.
 
I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?

You can view a loop of what Chris referenced re: 500 mb heights and the negatively tilted shortwave here, watching as the storm system interacts with the upper level energy and veers NW on Monday.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_wnd&loop=loopall&hours
 
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I'm unable to chase Sandy due to prior commitments, but if I were able to, I would be setting up camp in Beckley, West Virginia for what will probably be an extended, extreme thundersnow/blizzard event. Sandy's upslope snow setup (saturated, sub-freezing northwesterly 850mb winds hitting the mountains at 90 degree angle) is the most perfect and intense I've ever seen.
 
Ya, its pretty interesting to see a warm core semi-tropical storm with snow levels at 17,000 feet at the very center, and then a blizzard and multi-feet of snow just 150 miles or so away.
 
Looks like the timing of main landfall effects will be after dark late tomorrow into early Tuesday AM. This will make chasing especially hazardous. There may be a lot of inexperienced chasers out there simply because of the unusual location... so be extra safe!


W.

No way am I going out tonight! my whole county & the surrounding countys are nothing but heavy wooded areas!! I plan on waiting till daylight. (Tue morning)
 
Hi, guys. Just wanted to add a couple thoughts based on my local knowledge for any of those chasing Sandy in NJ who are from outside of the area. I live in far SE PA and am very familiar with southern NJ, particularly the coastline from Atlantic City southward to Cape May (which, at this moment, looks to be where landfall will occur). First, there are TONS of pine trees along most of the access roads (including the Garden State Parkway, which is the main N-S roadway close to the shore, and the Atlantic City Expressway, which is the primary highway between Philadelphia and Atlantic City), which will likely pose a huge problem. Additionally, most of the places along the shoreline (Ocean City, Sea Isle City, Avalon, etc.) are quite narrow barrier islands with fairly large back bays behind them. In a more normal nor'easter, these bays are the primarily source of the coastal flooding in these communities and regularly cut off access to these islands by the flooding of the access roads. These areas are highly flood prone and, given the surge, could mostly be under water. As a result, many of these towns will close access roads (if they haven't already). Also, most of these towns do not have parking garages or any larger structures which would provide a solid structure where you could station yourself through the storm. If you do go, Cape May (which is the largest community at the southern tip of NJ at the entrance to Delaware Bay) is several miles wide, although the town itself does contain many trees and is separated from the "mainland" by a canal.

I was considering the idea of chasing at the shore, but have decided against it for the above listed reasons. However, I may attempt to chase locally and attempt to post pictures if possible.

NOTE: No sooner did I finishing typing than the local NBC10 Philadelphia news affiliate indicated that the Garden State Parkway is closed from the Atlantic City Expressway southward (which is the primary highway to the towns that I listed above) and had footage which showed waters from the bays nearing the shoulders of the road.
 
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