ATLANTIC: Hurricane Sandy

[MClarkson]

Hurricane hunters just recorded 75kt at 700mb, and pressures continue to fall. So ya, that is pretty much a legit low end cat 1 now. She is following the model guidance quite well, in terms of both track and intensity. Look at the satellite images... look at the size of this thing!

 

[Matt Tottle]

Hurricane hunters just recorded 75kt at 700mb, and pressures continue to fall. So ya, that is pretty much a legit low end cat 1 now. She is following the model guidance quite well, in terms of both track and intensity. Look at the satellite images... look at the size of this thing!

I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?

 

[Tim Shriver]

I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?

Look at US water vapor animations. You will see why it could turn left so hard.

Tim

Sent from my BlackBerry 9850

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Hurricane Sandy will indeed take a left turn because of the negative tilt short wave that is basically undercutting to the SOUTH of Sandy. The cooler waters off the NE USA and low pressure aloft will cause a transition to an extratropical low just before landfall near NJ. The center will not have an eyewall, and be a broad and diffuse low, much like an ET cyclone, but have a MASSIVE area of wind stress extending many hundreds of miles (with 50-60 MPH sustained winds + higher gusts) and blowing across long fetches of ocean. The western Atlantic basin is already in an extremely agitated state from Sandy to say the least. Marine areas should be the hardest hit.

Above: This is the 15+ foot swell waves on a beautiful day (Oct 28) here in Palm Beach County, Florida. Sandy is indeed a monster offshore, but the sheer size is the "weapon" ... Not the actual wind speeds.

Above: The entire ocean turns "white to the horizon" off Boynton Beach, FL on Sunday, Oct 28 as a set wave from Sandy's ground swell arrives from the NE. Storm surge was even a problem, flooding homes as far south as Fort lauderdale, closing highway A1A and making some roads impassible at high tide - All with a 30 knot OFFSHORE wind from the WNW.

The main threat from Sandy will be STORM SURGE and HIGH WAVES ... Wind damage will be exacerbated by long duration / size of the storm. Pretty much a nor' easter on steroids!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like the timing of main landfall effects will be after dark late tomorrow into early Tuesday AM. This will make chasing especially hazardous. There may be a lot of inexperienced chasers out there simply because of the unusual location... so be extra safe!


W.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'm still wondering about that hard left (ultimately an S curve) that most of the models have it making.. Yes it has been following the models for the most part (it's actually tracking to the east of where the models have put it), but I don't really see anything that would steer it that hard to the west and then equally hard to the east once it's over PA/NY.. What am I missing?

You can view a loop of what Chris referenced re: 500 mb heights and the negatively tilted shortwave here, watching as the storm system interacts with the upper level energy and veers NW on Monday.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_wnd&loop=loopall&hours

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm unable to chase Sandy due to prior commitments, but if I were able to, I would be setting up camp in Beckley, West Virginia for what will probably be an extended, extreme thundersnow/blizzard event. Sandy's upslope snow setup (saturated, sub-freezing northwesterly 850mb winds hitting the mountains at 90 degree angle) is the most perfect and intense I've ever seen.

 

[MClarkson]

Ya, its pretty interesting to see a warm core semi-tropical storm with snow levels at 17,000 feet at the very center, and then a blizzard and multi-feet of snow just 150 miles or so away.

 

[John Olexa]

Looks like the timing of main landfall effects will be after dark late tomorrow into early Tuesday AM. This will make chasing especially hazardous. There may be a lot of inexperienced chasers out there simply because of the unusual location... so be extra safe!


W.

No way am I going out tonight! my whole county & the surrounding countys are nothing but heavy wooded areas!! I plan on waiting till daylight. (Tue morning)

 

[Ed Sweeney]

Hi, guys. Just wanted to add a couple thoughts based on my local knowledge for any of those chasing Sandy in NJ who are from outside of the area. I live in far SE PA and am very familiar with southern NJ, particularly the coastline from Atlantic City southward to Cape May (which, at this moment, looks to be where landfall will occur). First, there are TONS of pine trees along most of the access roads (including the Garden State Parkway, which is the main N-S roadway close to the shore, and the Atlantic City Expressway, which is the primary highway between Philadelphia and Atlantic City), which will likely pose a huge problem. Additionally, most of the places along the shoreline (Ocean City, Sea Isle City, Avalon, etc.) are quite narrow barrier islands with fairly large back bays behind them. In a more normal nor'easter, these bays are the primarily source of the coastal flooding in these communities and regularly cut off access to these islands by the flooding of the access roads. These areas are highly flood prone and, given the surge, could mostly be under water. As a result, many of these towns will close access roads (if they haven't already). Also, most of these towns do not have parking garages or any larger structures which would provide a solid structure where you could station yourself through the storm. If you do go, Cape May (which is the largest community at the southern tip of NJ at the entrance to Delaware Bay) is several miles wide, although the town itself does contain many trees and is separated from the "mainland" by a canal.

I was considering the idea of chasing at the shore, but have decided against it for the above listed reasons. However, I may attempt to chase locally and attempt to post pictures if possible.

NOTE: No sooner did I finishing typing than the local NBC10 Philadelphia news affiliate indicated that the Garden State Parkway is closed from the Atlantic City Expressway southward (which is the primary highway to the towns that I listed above) and had footage which showed waters from the bays nearing the shoulders of the road.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Have been watching a rapid increase in storm surge via this webcam at Ocean City, NJ.

 

[Jeff Duda]

For the second straight 12-hr upper air analysis, Sandy is now caught between "kissing" jet streaks. The storm is in the right entrance region of one intense curved jet streak aligned from the east coast through the Great Lakes regions and into southern Canada. Vertical motions are suspected or known to be enhanced on the curved side of jet streaks like this. The storm is also in the left exit region of a streak in the subtropical jet. I suspect that the rapid deepening of Sandy is due mainly to this, but also somewhat to its moving over the Gulf stream waters.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Storm has really picked up speed as it moves towards the coastline. Not sure if the storm surge will be as critical if the "wave action time" is so greatly reduced and off shore winds change directions. Will be interesting to watch.

W.

PS: TWC has begun operation "Moonwalk" in 35 MPH winds.

 

[Justin Wiley]

PS: TWC has begun operation "Moonwalk" in 35 MPH winds.

Thanks for the laugh, Warren.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Many bogus reports coming in, e.g, "Atlantic City beach under 8 feet of water." No, sorry, web cam begs to differ!

http://www.ablivesurf.com/livecams.asp

Looks like worse of bands is almost past shorelines.

Still waiting for "Frankenstorm" and 18ft surges.

W.