Any Thoughts on May?

[j_scheerer]

I tend to have the same suspicions, but that sure won't stop anyone from following the weather to NE/SD if need be. The death ridge nixed anything worthwhile when I was in Kansas last year. All the severe weather (TOR included) was back at home.

But, I guess that's why they call it "chasing". :lol:
[/b]

You could always try Southern Ontario in late June. lol

 

[Jim Bishop]

I've been trying to get a good feel for the overall May pattern since March. I've been thinking ridge over the plains/rockies and trough over the East. This is generally supported by the La Nina response in May, and the drought helps too. The Amercian Ensembles a few days ago were showing the ridge shifting towards the Rockies/Northwest U.S. mid to late in April, which would be the pattern change. The GFS operational hinted at this as well, though way too early as usual. Now the Amercian Ensembles develop low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska in mid to late April. That's just a class spring-time April pattern if I may say so myself.

But the current amazing patter must change sometime, the atmosphere can't keep this up for much longer. So one is forced to come to the conclusion that the first week or two of May will probably not be very active - but that does not mean there won't be a couple decent setups. Just a small shortwave imbedded in zonal flow can make magic happen. I do believe the first half of May won't be the big show, though, and late May or even June will be better. I do think the biggest outbreaks of the year have already occured, unless one or two more occur in the next 10-14 days before the pattern changes.

I've seen some talk about 1988? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 1988 a moderate or strong La Nina? The atmosphere sure has been responding as if the current La Nina were moderate or strong since March...

 

[David Drummond]

I've seen some talk about 1988? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 1988 a moderate or strong La Nina? The atmosphere sure has been responding as if the current La Nina were moderate or strong since March...
[/b]

1988 Probably THE worst chase year EVER! I think it was coming off a decently strong El Nino and the ridge from hell sat over the plains. Seems like there were only 2 or 3 decent chase days all year on the plains. You young 'uns haven't really had to suffer.....yet. You know it was bad when those of us who were around chasing then STILL remember it almost 2 decades later! I joke about 1988, but a year or two like that would definitely thin the chaser herd.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I wonder, because I've not looked at the climate data for 1988, if it was a year where it was bad because chasing *outside* of OK/KS/TX hadn't been 'discovered' yet. Many of the years when the southern Plains were quiet, there were many chaseable events in SD, ND, NE, IA, IL, CO and IN. 2002 comes to mind. You might even say 2004 if it weren't for May 29, May 12 and June 12. Even then there were only a handful of good days in OK and KS. Maybe there are some of the vets that were chasing back in the 80's that can shed some light on whether they ever considered the northern Plains or midwest in their earliest chasing seasons.

I wonder if by today's standards (IE the willingness of most chasers to consider a much larger chase area) if we have really seen a truly bad year where there were absolutely no good events *anywhere* from the Rockies to the Mississippi/Ohio Valley.

 

[Rob Satkus]

I wonder, because I've not looked at the climate data for 1988, if it was a year where it was bad because chasing *outside* of OK/KS/TX hadn't been 'discovered' yet. [/b]

Nah, it stunk everywhere that year...there was one big day in May (8th) with 50+ tornadoes in IA/WI/IL...mainly Wisconsin. The day before looked good along the dryline in OK/KS, but the cap from hell left me with nothing but a sunburn. I did see my first chase tornado in March, but it was a fluky flanking line thing on a massive HP supercell that went thru OKC, dropping one or two rain wrapped tor's and 4" hail. April, bad....May, bad...June, bad...mainly just a lot of random, needle in a haystack type events. The real fun came in November, with several outbreaks across the plains and midwest.

Rob

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

I've seen some talk about 1988? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 1988 a moderate or strong La Nina? The atmosphere sure has been responding as if the current La Nina were moderate or strong since March...
[/b]

Yes, 1988 was pretty dry but so was 1998 if I remember correctly. Like other's, I don't put too much faith in anything over 5 days out. This season as with all the past seasons, we will just have to wait and see what comes. It could be a year where I take off for a vacation in London for the first 2 weeks in May since nothing is happening or going non stop chasing.

One thing I did notice is that the death toll is a lot higher. Could this be just due to people getting use to the non active year's that we have had? Or just people not paying attention to the weather?

Anyway, we will just have to wait and see what this season brings.

 

[Jim Bishop]

1988 Probably THE worst chase year EVER! I think it was coming off a decently strong El Nino and the ridge from hell sat over the plains. Seems like there were only 2 or 3 decent chase days all year on the plains. You young 'uns haven't really had to suffer.....yet. You know it was bad when those of us who were around chasing then STILL remember it almost 2 decades later! I joke about 1988, but a year or two like that would definitely thin the chaser herd.
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I did a little research and both you and I are correct. We WERE coming off a strong El Nino in early 1988. But that quickly turned to a strong La Nina by April/May/June persisting through 1989, peaking at -1.9. So, as I was suggesting in my first response, this year sure looks similar to 1988 in that both were La Nina years. And even though this year's isn't strong, the atmosphere has sure been responding as if it were strong. Make what conclusions you may for this spring, but I'm worried about May, especially for the Southern Plains! I've long heard talk about how horrible 1988 was for chasing. Man, I hope that doesn't happen this year....but I'm pretty sure early spring this year will prove to have been much more active that mid-to-late spring. My 2 cents anyways.