Any Thoughts on May?

[John Hudson]

The explosive kickoff to the 2006 severe weather season has been just mind-boggling. The succession of intense SW lows coupled with strong Gulf moisture advection pumping impressive Td's into the mix seems to have no end. I've sure been impressed with all the coverage, and all of your vids and stills, but my heart sure aches for all the losses of life and property during this volatile season

While I've never had much faith in model data beyond about six days out, I'm really wondering what the month of May will bring. I'm better prepared to chase this year than I've ever been, and will be arriving in Wichita or Oklahoma City on May 2.

Do any of you have any thoughts on what the month of May will bring? Also, I'd sure like to meet some of you in person during my travels. I can send my call sign and cell number to anyone who might be interested in hooking up.

Be safe, everyone.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Seeing as how model output is questionable at best five days out I really don't see the point in even speculating on the overall pattern a month from now. I'm sure it will work itself out during the time you are here.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

It can't be any worse than May of last year.

 

[Rob Herman]

With drought conditions hanging on for most of the plains I'm guessing that the death ridge will set up about the end of May.

 

[John Hudson]

With drought conditions hanging on for most of the plains I'm guessing that the death ridge will set up about the end of May.
[/b]

I tend to have the same suspicions, but that sure won't stop anyone from following the weather to NE/SD if need be. The death ridge nixed anything worthwhile when I was in Kansas last year. All the severe weather (TOR included) was back at home.

But, I guess that's why they call it "chasing". :lol:

 

[Kenny Drake]

A good May pattern setup would be to get a continuous 500-mb trough over the SW US, and the current GFS output (12z Apr 8) shows such a thing trying to occur. But if the GFS does turn out to be accurate with it's upper level features (not timing per say) this trough looks to get cut off from the mean flow and ejects out from the SW. It looks as if another late March/early April setup may be on the horizon for late next week (13-16th'ish). I had a lot more comments on this feature for next week, but I'll save that for a forecast if/when one is created...too early at this time for details in my opinion. In short, I don't see the chasers dream (May) setup...yet.

In response to Michael, yes last May wasn't that great for the southern plains if memory recalls and the midwest got a lot of the action (2nd week in August, Wisconsin comes to mind). Sadly it was in not-so-great chase terrain and denser populated areas.

EDIT: Latest GFS fades the 500-mb cut off low out as it ejects NEward over the Rockies back into the mean flow, looks like this will be a quiet a week as things look now. Still though, the fact that troughs keep digging into the SW is a good thing even if they eject out, they're trying.

 

[David Drummond]

It's going to be worse than 1988...so everyone can go home now.

 

[David Wolfson]

Because of the relative coolness of the northeastern Pacific and warmth of the northeastern Atlantic, I'm pretty optimistic for the next month or so that the current pattern of short waves developing into the coast and traveling up into ridging over the northern Midwest will persist.

The two week NH circulation seems to settle into a rather down-the-middle four or five wave pattern that could dynamically persist for a month or so. Beyond that I'm inclined to agree with Rob that the Ridge of Death could be the next transition to a more blocked circulation. The CDC seems to agree, putting the one month heat bullseye over AR, with above normal precip. centered over MN. The three month heat bullseye shifts to the Southwest (ugh!) with a below normal precip. bullseye over OK, you poor b*****ds.

The long and short of it is I'm looking for an average non-spectacular but ok season through the middle of May. The validity of my observations on what is essentially a crap-shoot is of course just about nil. FWIW.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Tell you what, everyone just stay home this season because May is going to suck big time. I will catch all of the tornadoes for you guys ok. Maybe next year...

Mick

 

[Dan Cook]

It's going to be worse than 1988...so everyone can go home now.
[/b]

Didn't you say that last year?

 

[David Drummond]

Didn't you say that last year?
[/b]

Yeppers, sure did! :lol: Funny thing too, from what I gathered, last year mostly DID suck for most people unless you happened to catch the few really good events.

 

[Shane Adams]

People say this all the time, but we Oklahoma chasers can say it and actually mean it - it can't be any worse than last year. You can't do worse than 0 tornadoes.

Seriously, I see no reason to expect a return of "normal" deep gulf moisture, because we've had days of gulf flow with only marginaly thick moisture. I'm not a scientist so I don't have a detailed explanation why. I just know that the current moisture fetch we're dealing with won't work when the chase day temps get above 82 degrees or so. Might be a good year for storm chasers, but tornado chasers might be in trouble. I dunno. I'm by no means giving up, I just have no reason to expect anything special. But then these things always seem to fix themselves somewhere during the season, whether it's Oklahoma or Texas or Iowa.

I remember all the threads during the first few days of May 2004 about how the year was wasted, so I don't really think about long-term much. It's more or less just something to talk about until it gets here.

 

[bill mudd]

I guess if anyone was to look at the past LaNINAS there could be a comparision, perhaps. It looks as though it will be in place for many weeks(current conus) to come but does that play on GULF moisture -I dunno know.

Sure seems TX panhandle / upslopes are slower than usual. And these current CA storms out of HI
(hilo lows) are pretty big and late.

There was some discussion earlier in the year (actually last month) that the big events would be EAST of the OK drylines - and that has played out in a big way.

last year I simply waited and waited...then flew to Denver on 6/8 ----and the rest was history in Hill City, KS

so go figure CA had more tornados than OK in 05? whaaa?

 

[David Drummond]

That's the nice thing I like about this board. You can set it in your settings so when a topic you participated in is replied to, it will not only email and notify you, but it will also send you the entire text of the post!

That's always usefull when the poster makes a post then quickly deletes it for some reason. heheh

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Any Thoughts on May?[/b]

Yea, I can't wait!!!