Another Chase Case! #9

[Marc Austin]

Alright, I had a request for a specific date and I agreed it would make a good case, so here it is. This will probably appeal to you chasers who strictly remain in the plains for your chasing as it's more of a classic setup. No convective outlooks will be posted because I feel it would probably be too easy to recognize. Good luck guys!

12Z Observations:

Surface Observations:
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
High Plains
Southern Plains

Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

Soundings:
Springfield, MO
Topeka, KS
Shreveport, LA
Omaha, NE
Nashville, TN
Norman, OK
Lincoln, IL
Little Rock, AR
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
Jackson, MS

Satellite Images:
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
High Plains

Radar Images:
Middle Miss. Valley
High Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains

Created a Wayfaring Map for this case. I'll try to keep it updated, but it may not reflect changes immediately. If you would like to create your own waypoint, you need only create a wayfaring account. Then you can change your position whenever you want and neither I nor anyone else can move you. It's just a suggestion. Now get chasing!!

 

[Jason Boggs]

Right now, I'll hang out around Wichita, KS and wait for updates.

 

[Colin Davis]

I haven't gotten on board for any of these, yet, but figured maybe I'll try my luck here.

Give me Ponca City. Those 12Z obs are awesome. In fact, I'm not sure I could be more confident, had I been chasing that day.

Finding a Panera and sitting there until I'm compelled to move.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

I like that dryline in the TX panhandle, however, the shear in the Topeka sounding puts a smile on my face. I'll start in Topeka.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll start out in Ottawa, KS for now, ready to head south depending on further updates. I'm likin that sounding from out of Topeka and not liking those warmer 850 mb temps farther south.

 

[Darren Addy]

I'll take Emporia, KS for $500, Alex. (At least I'm hoping that puts me in striking distance of the action.)

 

[Joe Karel]

I think I'm going from lower MN to Wichita KS and wait for further updates...

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Kansas City, here I come!

 

[Jason Bolt]

Well as good as things look close to home, I might not be leaving anywhere in a real hurry first thing in the morning if this is real. I'd be driving leisurely sightseeing, so for now put me watching the deer at the Fall River Wildlife Area (Fall River, KS) enjoying the morning air and deciding which way to head from here. I like my road options getting any direction, and I might even try a couple wildlife shots Mike Umscheid style!

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I haven't had a chance to post on one of these chase cases yet so I will throw my two cents in there. I am not sure if I will have time to check back and update my forecast after the 18Z data, but here goes.

I am going to stay in Wichita, KS right now and wait for latter data before hitting the highway and wasting gas. (It is still $3.99 with this virtual chase)

The warm front is located in southern Nebraska and I want to wait to see how it progresses. It looks like an MCS crossed Nebraska into Iowa and if the boundary layer is stable enough, due to that, we may not see much in the way of northward movement throughout the day.

Wow! what a deep moist layer at TOP. 150mb+ of saturated air. OAX is showing a "rain sounding" so this will further my argument that the warm front may not move much today with rain/clouds still in the area up there. Kansas is already clearing out pretty good! Lot's of sun is going to make for some FAT CAPE with those moisture profiles later in the day!

Shear slackens as we head south and the moisture profile does not look as good on the OKC sounding....High based convection? At least higher LCL's I would imagine.

DAL looks to be strongly capped and I don't really want to have to leave in a few hours for a 6 hour drive when I may get rewarded in my backyard today.

I did not have time to do an in-depth analysis, just looking over a few charts here while I have the time. I may be missing some details due to that, but I am going to sit in Wichita and wait for more data.

If I don't get the chance to update and finish out this chase case will all of you, I am going to go ahead and target Salina, KS. With that moisture depth at KTOP I do not foresee the dryline mixing rapidly east today. I think it will mix east somwhat and then slosh westward after peak heating.

I also like the diffluent flow at 500/300mb over northern Kansas so.....Salina, KS...final answer (for now).

 

[Derek Weston]

Big ole swath of C Kansas pointing south through C Oklahoma has me most interested initially. North likely with better shear, south with better CAPE. I like really good shear. (probably because I'm from Iowa -- land of giant CAPE busts) Central to south central KS... Since I'll probably be coming in from the NE, however, will camp camp out in Junction City.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I've only had a minute to look at this before work, but I'll start in Manhattan, Ks, and probably readjust later during lunch when I can have a proper look

 

[Darin Brunin]

I think I am going to sit this one out...it doesn't look like any tornadoes are going to occur today. I have seen better days in January for chasing.

 

[Andrew Revering]

I'll try Hastings, NE. I like the Concordia, KS area initially with the moisture axis and boundary location, but assuming (from a quick glance) that the low is in NW KS and with a flow slightly ENE, and boundary probably moving north, I'll play the warm front/triple point around Hastings, NE.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'll try Hastings, NE. I like the Concordia, KS area initially with the moisture axis and boundary location, but assuming (from a quick glance) that the low is in NW KS and with a flow slightly ENE, and boundary probably moving north, I'll play the warm front/triple point around Hastings, NE.

You did read in my mind, man. I want to reserve me a possibility along the dryline, so I will start in Hebron this time. I like this case.