I don't like AccuWx as much as the next guy, but let's try not to go overboard here. There are signals for anticipating some trends for a hurricane season, such as SST anomalies, global flow patterns (which are influence by el nino and la nina), etc. If we say that the tropics are 100% unpredictable in terms of forecasting seasonal trends, then we must apply that to all forecasting outlets. In other words, I better see some NHC bashing when they release their official forecast. Well, I actually don't want to see that, but people shouldn't complain that it is nearly impossible for AccuWx to forecast the season because there are no real 'indicators' without realizing that they are also accusing CSU and the NHC of the same.
Most of the forecasts started as a forecast relative to average. I'm sure a skilled meteorologist could sit down and spit out a forecast that is better than random and anticipates whether the reason will be below, near, or above the climatological average. Weak flow across the Atlantic basin and warmer-than-normal SSTs would be two indicators that, by the end of the season, there may be more-than-average number of tropical systems. In addition, convective events can be much more sensitive to very small changes in location and amplitude of various meteorological features. One event may be 'ruined' by cloudcover that doesn't clear out until 3pm, while another may be ruined because 700mb temps are 1.5C higher than forecast, which capped off the environment. The tropical systems, especially when averaged over the course of the entire season, seem to be less sensitive to these very small variations. So, I think it's easier to forecast an under-near-above average tropical season many months ahead of time than it is to forecast any individual convective event (like tornadoes in Oklahoma on May 30th) that far ahead of time. I can liken a forecast of weaker-than-normal flow over the Atlantic (favorable upper-level pattern) and higher-than-normal SSTs to having knowledge that dewpoints in the plains will be higher than normal and that there will be persistent southwesterly flow aloft on the east side of a western US trough (favorable upper-level pattern).... We can anticipate the flow and SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic with some skill, and we base the forecast off of that information. If we knew the large-scale, mean flow pattern would be favorable across the US, and we could anticipate that Tds would be higher-than-normal, than it would be a reason forecast to anticipate a more-active-than-normal chase season. The problem with chasing, however, is that the signals over the mid-latitudes in spring can be quite a bit weaker than the signals over the low-latitudes of the Atlantic during the summer and fall.
Again, I'm no fan of AccuWx, and I find their occassional anti-NHC tones deplorable at times. However, I do think it's only fair to realize that their forecast may not be an absolute crap shoot. As someone else noted, some of their map looks like it's nearly entirely climatological, since it's common for tropical systems to hit, for example, southern Florida and the outer banks of NC. So, I think some of that is climo-based. But hey, climo IS A forecast tool. If it wasn't, none of would say "wait until May" when the setup looks like garbage in April. Again, I question their motives for this "product", and I fully expect an onslaught of "I told you so" should their forecast verify (with absolutely no mention of it should it not verify).
