9/14/04 FCST: Plains/Mid west

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...ysis/s2/scp.gif

That is still my target. 6 marks the spot.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

Interesting what the sfc winds are doing in far western IA north of OMaha now and over into Nebraska. I hope those aren't very local little crap storm induced readings(and will change in 2 more seconds)....which I'm 99% sure they aren't. I wouldn't think anything south of that line stands a chance as there doesn't look to be any boundaries down there at all for them to use.

Yeah just looking out the windows now and it appears to be changing rapidly. Tower ne is fairly good, but I can't see the base and imagine it's quite high. But the cu in the area now are getting the cluttered more juiced up look to them...and you can tell there is some decent low level flow with them. Can't beat looking out the windows to see how things are coming along..lol.
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...ysis/s2/scp.gif

That is still my target. 6 marks the spot.

Best of luck Mike. Not sure you'll get convection back there with the cap strengthening behind the precip - though 850 winds are backing some and maybe the warmer moist air will start to advance back that way - but lack of low level instability I think will keep the torn chances very low in that region today. I'd prefer back over toward Atlantic IA ahead of the junk line along I-29 and hope things trend upward. The cell west of DSM died as it slid into low 80's sfc temps - so I'd look for somewhere a bit warmer than that. Pretty low prospects for tornadoes at this point though.

Glen
 
Sunset Times in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 819
724 PM CDT Mason City IA
725 PM CDT Des Moines IA
734 PM CDT Omaha NE
736 PM CDT Sioux City IA
737 PM CDT Lincoln NE
740 PM CDT Norfolk NE

Sunset Times in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 820
656 PM MDT Goodland KS
702 PM MDT Sidney NE
705 PM MDT Scottsbluff NE
709 PM MDT Cheyenne WY
711 PM MDT Denver CO

Mike
 
Yeah that cell west of Des Moines looked to be lacking a very good boundary....then poof.
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

* AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTH OF DENISON...OR 68 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT DODGE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
NEAR DELOIT BY 635 PM CDT.
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAIL BY 640 PM CDT.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF BANCROFT...OR 42 MILES EAST OF SPENCER...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
6 MILES SOUTH OF SWEA CITY BY 700 PM CDT.
NEAR BANCROFT BY 705 PM CDT.
NEAR LAKOTA BY 725 PM CDT.

THE LOCATION OF LONE ROCK IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warn...ERSTORM+WARNING
 
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