8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[B Ozanne]

I don't know where to put this comment but the language coming out of the NO mayor is incredible. Some of the strongest words I've ever heard, similar to the brunt words of 9/11/

 

[Shane Adams]

Jo and I were just discussing how many of the estimated 100,000 not leaving town simply can't. If you don't have the money lying around (especially with these insane gas prices) there's nothing you can do.

As for the people who choose to stay (that could've left), this is just another example of how people never think it will be them. This scenario has been possible for many years, yet no one really worried about it until now...that it's happening. Further proof that Mother Nature rules the world, not people. Things like this will keep happening as long as we keep building near coasts, on fault lines, and in disaster-prone areas like Tornado Alley. A frightening, but real, fact of life.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The water vapor loop and morning soundings suggest there might be some slightly drier, high-shear air to the northwest of the hurricane. That might explain the slightly asymetric look on satellite in the northwestern quandrant. On the other hand, some incredibly high water heat content is directly in front of Katrina:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/wo...W/2005239go.jpg

The window of opportunity for this to weaken to less than a cat. 3 will soon be closing. So let's hope it somehow manages to slip in well west of New Orleans in relatively rural areas.

Edit to add: WHOA! 166 kt just reported a flight level. The winds are even stronger now.

 

[HAltschule]

Unconfirmed report that Katrina now has sustained winds of 175 MPH!!!

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Preasure

I just heard preasure reported was at 906 with sustained winds at 165mph and at flight level they were 195mph with gust over 200mph. I thought yesterday that this thing was going to push more North over night, but it kept pushing on it's west, north west track... When is she going to start turning more due north? Any signs yet that anyone sees...

 

[carey libby]

Tim,
i don't know if this helps or not,but this is as close to the flood wall as i could get.
http://www.visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec....hp?vev1id=11552

i have checked MANY different websites on the height and they all seem to agree to 20 ft.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

a 906 mb pressure, if sustained at landfall, would be the 1st or second lowest in US History, would it not?

Against the rules, I know, but I have NEVER seen a more vicious looking hurricane or typhoon via Satellite. I can't even imagine what the scene in New Orleans looks like this morning.

 

[Austin Ivey]

i believe camille had a pressure of 905mb @ landfall in 1969. camille was smaller than katrina, however.

 

[HAltschule]

...Some Hurricane Stat's

Rank /Hurricane /Year /Category
(at landfall) Minimum Pressure

1 Unnamed (FL Keys) /1935 /CAT 5 /892mb
2 Camille (MS, SE LA, VA) /1969 /CAT 5 /909mb
3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA) /1992 /CAT 5 /922mb

 

[j_scheerer]

It looks like Katrina, is going through an Eye wall replacement cycle. Which makes things worse for N.O.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez


1) From what I'm seeing in the surge forecasts (20 ft), the New Orleans floodwalls will be broken. I believe they were constructed for 12-15 ft. Can anyone elaborate on this? Is anyone seeing different surge estimates?

According to the following engineering article, floodwall heights are generally 16 feet. Reading through some of modeling on impact of Cat 4 or Cat 5 on New Orleans, it's pretty sobering:

http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline...3/0603feat.html

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yep eyewall replacement cycle taking place... Storm also looks like it is finally turning a bit more northerly over the past few satellite scans. It is quite possible that when this thing replaces it's eye, that it could be even stronger. I wonder if the hurricane recon. plane took their readings as the eyewall was weakning?

It looks like the eyewall will probably redevelop just in time for landfall. I strongly believe that this thing will not weaken before making landfall, probably hitting the U.S. coast with 175-180MPH maximum sustained winds, with gusts in excess of 200MPH.

 

[Brandon Clement]

According to the following engineering article, floodwall heights are generally 16 feet. Reading through some of modeling on impact of Cat 4 or Cat 5 on New Orleans, it's pretty sobering:

The ground in New Orleans is constantly sinking, this has caused parts of the levee's to sink as much as nine feet in some places and about 3-5 feet in most areas. The levees are also a lot weaker than when they were originally designed.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

incredible...

I'm likely staying in Mobile at the Coastal Weather Research Center OR Downtown.

Be prepared for a possible right hand jog as many of the last several storms have done, ie. Ivan and Dennis.

 

[Alex Lamers]

CNN reported that New Orleans will have the authority to commandeer buildings and vehicles in order to help with shelter and evacuation respectively.

....Alex Lamers...