8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Dustin Wilcox]

The storm is reaching the point that if unless it turns a bit to the NE before landfall New Orleans will lie in the right front quadrant , a storm of this magnitude could produce a storm surge of 30ft in localized locations, how big can the waves get on top of that in a storm this powerfull? I am almost scared to know.

 

[Austin Ivey]

weather channel reporting 184 mph sustained winds now. 184 seems to be an odd number maybe he meant to say 185.

I think the IR satellite appearance currently (1230MDT) is Katrina's best yet. And......warmer waters are ahead.

unfreakinbelievable!

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Dustin Wilcox
how big can the waves get on top of that in a storm this powerfull?

I would imagine areas in the open gulf could reach >50'

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Fox News Channel reported gusts were recorded up to 215 mph ... did they mean to say kph? ... where does this information come from?

Anyway ... latest IR imagery suggests that HK is starting to possess colder cloud tops and a more well defined eye ... amazing.

I wonder if the TRMM satellite is out there overlooking this monster and also am curious about the strength/possibility of a dual eyewall ... any thoughts?

 

[HAltschule]

Not sure. They may quoted the Recon flight level winds and converted to MPH? Anyway, it still seems like Katrina is wobbling a lot...which is to be expected. But I seem to notice more of a job to the west-northwest now...which *may* bring the hurricane southwest of NEW. Either way, NEW will certainly be in the Right Front Quadrant.

FYI...During Ivan last year, there was a significant tornado outbreak well out ahead of the center in the RF Quadrant (mostly in feeder bands). One more thing to watch for here might be a tornado outbreak 150-350 miles from the center...across MS, AL tomorrow?? Will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I have been wondering about this westward jog, too... perhaps it's just wobble. If it does deflect somewhat to the west, I can't see it being worse for New Orleans, but it would probably destroy the oil terminals by putting them in the worst possible sector of the eyewall.

Tim

 

[Philip Flory]

Last couple IR scans indicate possibly a slight curve to the right from the previous... the NNW movement may be close to underway. NO is really in a bad situation... the storm goes west of NO and they get the front quad which would enhance the risk of significant structual damage on top of the flood threat. If the storm was to move east of NO (looking less likely IMO) the threat of flodding increases. Personally, I feel a track very close to NO... slightly west is likely. Another thing to keep in mind is this hurricane will be making landfall early morning... DESPITE less depth near shore.. SST's coupled with usual overnight strengthening make a CAT 5 landfall likely. This storm is almost taking on the look of a runaway train.. it is picking up speed and is going to likely crush whatever it hits.

No doubt im pulling an all-nighter tonight.. this has potential to be an historic next 24-48 hrs.

Best of luck to everyone down there and to anyone chasing be safe!

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

12Z GFDL brings it directly into New Orleans in the 915-920 mb range. The 12Z GFS is just east of New Orleans. The tracks continue to converge on a New Orleans landfall, and it appears it will be a solid cat. 4 or higher.

I can't believe my ears...Fox News is reporting at least one bar in the French Quarter is "packed" right now (230pm Sunday). Wow.

 

[Justin Bailey]

.

i heard the same thing and couldn't help but think to myself, what are those people thinking. do they realize that they have the storm of the century taking a direct aim at them. i heard the man that the fox reporter was interviewing say that he felt fairly safe because of the levee system surrounding the city. :shock:. just another example of how people think it'll never happen to them. but i also can't believe fox just sent another reporter into NO, right in the path of this monster. if K goes through another ERC before landfall is it possible that the winds could be sustained over 180 mph? is there even enough time for that to happen? with the pressure continueing to drop, what is the potential max wind speeds?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

It appears that it may have made a northward jog. Latest VORTEX message (1950z) still showing 902mb.

EDIT: Latest 4pm advisory showing winds "down" to 165mph. I think the intensity will be nearly entirely predicated upon internal/eyewall dynamics and another possible ERC.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

165 vs. 175 mph is akin to asking "would you like to be run over by a 22 car train or a 20 car train?". Hopefully no one is breathing easier. The new 24 hour forecast point is just northwest of Slidell, so the forecast has been nudged west again.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Kevin Scharfenberg
165 vs. 175 mph is akin to asking \"would you like to be run over by a 22 car train or a 20 car train?\". Hopefully no one is breathing easier. The new 24 hour forecast point is just northwest of Slidell, so the forecast has been nudged west again.

Kevin,

You said that you knew someone at the Slidell NWSFO... Do you know the elevation of the office? Assuming they lose power (sure they have backup), and with the possibility that the office sustains structural damage, just wondering if they are in storm surge threat area given that the latest advisory notes possible local surges at 28' ASL.

 

[Bob Hall]

National Weather Service
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Forecast Office
62300 Airport Rd.
Slidell, LA 70460-5243
Latitude: N30° 20.618'
Longitude: W89° 49.314'
This facility is located at the Slidell Airport (ASD). Runway elevation is 28 feet. Here is a googlemap link http://maps.google.com/maps?q=National+Oce...0&start=0&hl=en

 

[rdale]

"Latest 4pm advisory showing winds "down" to 165mph. "

Not really "down" but they admit they overdid previous estimates based on the latest data coming in...

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Jeff- The Slidell office is in a pretty nice building, but I'm not sure it (or any other similar office building) would do well with 150 mph sustained winds and higher gusts. They do have an interior room for shelter if they need it and they're high enough to stay out of the surge. I haven't asked, but I'd guess they've sent some of their staff to the Lake Charles office for backup operations. The biggest loss might be the 88D, which is there at the office but the dome might not do so well in 200 mph gusts.