8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Kevin Bowman]

pressure has gone up to 903

 

[Mark Farnik]

The "weakening" from 175 to 165 mph and pressure rise of one millibar is nothing in the terms of this storm and is to be expected in an intense hurricane like this. New Orleans has been beat to death; it's a deader, no matter which way you look at it, because even if Katrina would "weaken" (i.e. go through another ERC, since there is nothing else to trip up this monster ) to a strong Cat 4, it is still going to be devastated by this storm. I wonder if, with this 22-30 foot storm surge and 25-50 foot waves on top of that, the Chandeleur Islands and some of the other little islands along the Mississippi coast and peninsulas on the Delta might be wiped out entirely by Katrina. With that kind of water force, there is going to be catastropic coastlline damage. Some of the small towns southeast of New Orleans (i.e. Buras, Grand Isle) are probably going to be wiped off the map and never be rebuilt, primarily because the land they sit on is probably going to be destroyed by Katrina's gargantuan storm surge. Cartographers are probably going to half to redraw maps of southeast Louisiana and south Missisppi after the storm abates, because I am betting that the appearance of the coastline will be altered dramatically.
Pray for those who either don't have the means or don't have the sense to get out the way of this supercane.

 

[bill mudd]

What if the Superdome cant handle this thing? There hasnt been any testing on this structure....
I would be taking the road North out since everyone is going east and west...duhh kinda of a no brainer (would you rather be going 7 mph or 60mph?)
Its hard to sit and watch this thing unfold knowing there are going to be a lot of lives lost - its inevidibale....God bless those poor people left behind.

 

[MClarkson]

recon reports the eye open southwest. Also radar seems to show this.

D values in the eye have risen slightly, indicating slightly higher pressure.

 

[Bobbi Andrzejek]

ERC?

Is the most likely reason for the rise in pressure and drop in wind speed due to ERC?

 

[j_scheerer]

ERC does not appear likely at this time, as the eye wall is still very well defined.

 

[MClarkson]

Recon gave no indication that a concentric eyewall might be forming...

 

[Brandon Clement]

The outflow on the extreme NW part of the storm looks like it is being slightly restricted by the trough in Tx. I would think that this is going to cause K to come in a little farther East of the current track. This might be the best news New Orleans has ever heard. Just a 30 mile jog to the E and a decrease in winds by 15 mph would make an incredible difference.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

My tropical expertise in meteorology is poor seeing that I enjoyed the focus on mesoscale systems in the Great Plains ...

Latest discussion out by NHC talks about the broadening of the wind field of HK and the slow (and painfull) dissolving of the inner eyewall and 'formative' nature of the outer eyewall ...

This sounds like an Opal repeat ... maybe not as dramatic. Based on model output the trough over TX is apparent along with the easterly adjacent sub-tropical ridge ...

Question is are we seeing this possible weakening of HK due to the upper level flow east of the trough? Sadly I haven't painstakenly labored to understand the kinematics as to why Charlie exploded just prior to making landfall around Puntagorda, FL ... I can only contribute that the possible weakening of HK is due to either regular cycling (ERC) or some sort of shearing ...

thoughts?

 

[Bob Hall]

I just spoke to a college friend who works as a contractor at the FEMA National Processing Service Center (NPSC) in Denton, TX. This call center will be the lead for helping people with aid after this Hurricane has done its damage. FEMA is pulling out all of the stops on this one. They have basically dusted off many of the continuity of government plans that were created for a limited attack of the United States by the former Soviet Union. There will be a massive military presence as soon as the storm is deemed “safe.â€￾

I would suggest all chasers heed directions by anyone that appears to be in authority. The local sheriff does not have time to deal with you, but a 22 year old reservist with an M-16 would probably much rather guard you than throw around 75 pound sand bags.

Technically, as a disaster has been declared people can already call to apply for assistance 1-800-621-FEMA (3362). The speech or hearing impaired may call (TTY) 1-800-462-7585.

If you have friends or relatives that will be affected, please do everything you can to get them into the system early. With their permission, you may want to call FEMA as them. Be prepared to give their Social Security number, describe the losses, provide financial information, and give directions to the damaged property. (Given the intensity, it is not too hard to estimate total destruction).

I am not advocating fraud, just helping loved-ones get in early so they can get aid the fastest. This is how the Federal government works.

 

[Justin Bailey]

how long does it usually take a hurricane to complete an ERC? cause its looking like the big easy might have possibly missed a cat. 5. im thinking it'll weaken to a strong cat. 4, but really whats the difference between 153 mph winds and 159 mprh winds. there will still be an incredible ammount of devestation and probably casualties.

 

[B Ozanne]

Western eyewall still poised to pass 15-25 miles east of NO, that's no cup of tea.