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8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

The storm is reaching the point that if unless it turns a bit to the NE before landfall New Orleans will lie in the right front quadrant :( , a storm of this magnitude could produce a storm surge of 30ft in localized locations, how big can the waves get on top of that in a storm this powerfull? I am almost scared to know.
weather channel reporting 184 mph sustained winds now. 184 seems to be an odd number maybe he meant to say 185.

I think the IR satellite appearance currently (1230MDT) is Katrina's best yet. And......warmer waters are ahead.

Fox News Channel reported gusts were recorded up to 215 mph ... did they mean to say kph? ... where does this information come from?

Anyway ... latest IR imagery suggests that HK is starting to possess colder cloud tops and a more well defined eye ... amazing.

I wonder if the TRMM satellite is out there overlooking this monster and also am curious about the strength/possibility of a dual eyewall ... any thoughts?
Not sure. They may quoted the Recon flight level winds and converted to MPH? Anyway, it still seems like Katrina is wobbling a lot...which is to be expected. But I seem to notice more of a job to the west-northwest now...which *may* bring the hurricane southwest of NEW. Either way, NEW will certainly be in the Right Front Quadrant.

FYI...During Ivan last year, there was a significant tornado outbreak well out ahead of the center in the RF Quadrant (mostly in feeder bands). One more thing to watch for here might be a tornado outbreak 150-350 miles from the center...across MS, AL tomorrow?? Will be interesting to see what happens.
I have been wondering about this westward jog, too... perhaps it's just wobble. If it does deflect somewhat to the west, I can't see it being worse for New Orleans, but it would probably destroy the oil terminals by putting them in the worst possible sector of the eyewall.

Last couple IR scans indicate possibly a slight curve to the right from the previous... the NNW movement may be close to underway. NO is really in a bad situation... the storm goes west of NO and they get the front quad which would enhance the risk of significant structual damage on top of the flood threat. If the storm was to move east of NO (looking less likely IMO) the threat of flodding increases. Personally, I feel a track very close to NO... slightly west is likely. Another thing to keep in mind is this hurricane will be making landfall early morning... DESPITE less depth near shore.. SST's coupled with usual overnight strengthening make a CAT 5 landfall likely. This storm is almost taking on the look of a runaway train.. it is picking up speed and is going to likely crush whatever it hits.

No doubt im pulling an all-nighter tonight.. this has potential to be an historic next 24-48 hrs.

Best of luck to everyone down there and to anyone chasing be safe!
12Z GFDL brings it directly into New Orleans in the 915-920 mb range. The 12Z GFS is just east of New Orleans. The tracks continue to converge on a New Orleans landfall, and it appears it will be a solid cat. 4 or higher.

I can't believe my ears...Fox News is reporting at least one bar in the French Quarter is "packed" right now (230pm Sunday). Wow.

i heard the same thing and couldn't help but think to myself, what are those people thinking. do they realize that they have the storm of the century taking a direct aim at them. i heard the man that the fox reporter was interviewing say that he felt fairly safe because of the levee system surrounding the city. :shock:. just another example of how people think it'll never happen to them. but i also can't believe fox just sent another reporter into NO, right in the path of this monster. if K goes through another ERC before landfall is it possible that the winds could be sustained over 180 mph? is there even enough time for that to happen? with the pressure continueing to drop, what is the potential max wind speeds?
It appears that it may have made a northward jog. Latest VORTEX message (1950z) still showing 902mb.

EDIT: Latest 4pm advisory showing winds "down" to 165mph. I think the intensity will be nearly entirely predicated upon internal/eyewall dynamics and another possible ERC.
165 vs. 175 mph is akin to asking "would you like to be run over by a 22 car train or a 20 car train?". Hopefully no one is breathing easier. The new 24 hour forecast point is just northwest of Slidell, so the forecast has been nudged west again.
Originally posted by Kevin Scharfenberg
165 vs. 175 mph is akin to asking \"would you like to be run over by a 22 car train or a 20 car train?\". Hopefully no one is breathing easier. The new 24 hour forecast point is just northwest of Slidell, so the forecast has been nudged west again.


You said that you knew someone at the Slidell NWSFO... Do you know the elevation of the office? Assuming they lose power (sure they have backup), and with the possibility that the office sustains structural damage, just wondering if they are in storm surge threat area given that the latest advisory notes possible local surges at 28' ASL.
"Latest 4pm advisory showing winds "down" to 165mph. "

Not really "down" but they admit they overdid previous estimates based on the latest data coming in...
Jeff- The Slidell office is in a pretty nice building, but I'm not sure it (or any other similar office building) would do well with 150 mph sustained winds and higher gusts. They do have an interior room for shelter if they need it and they're high enough to stay out of the surge. I haven't asked, but I'd guess they've sent some of their staff to the Lake Charles office for backup operations. The biggest loss might be the 88D, which is there at the office but the dome might not do so well in 200 mph gusts.
The "weakening" from 175 to 165 mph and pressure rise of one millibar is nothing in the terms of this storm and is to be expected in an intense hurricane like this. New Orleans has been beat to death; it's a deader, no matter which way you look at it, because even if Katrina would "weaken" (i.e. go through another ERC, since there is nothing else to trip up this monster ) to a strong Cat 4, it is still going to be devastated by this storm. I wonder if, with this 22-30 foot storm surge and 25-50 foot waves on top of that, the Chandeleur Islands and some of the other little islands along the Mississippi coast and peninsulas on the Delta might be wiped out entirely by Katrina. With that kind of water force, there is going to be catastropic coastlline damage. Some of the small towns southeast of New Orleans (i.e. Buras, Grand Isle) are probably going to be wiped off the map and never be rebuilt, primarily because the land they sit on is probably going to be destroyed by Katrina's gargantuan storm surge. Cartographers are probably going to half to redraw maps of southeast Louisiana and south Missisppi after the storm abates, because I am betting that the appearance of the coastline will be altered dramatically.
Pray for those who either don't have the means or don't have the sense to get out the way of this supercane.
What if the Superdome cant handle this thing? There hasnt been any testing on this structure....
I would be taking the road North out since everyone is going east and west...duhh kinda of a no brainer (would you rather be going 7 mph or 60mph?)
Its hard to sit and watch this thing unfold knowing there are going to be a lot of lives lost - its inevidibale....God bless those poor people left behind.
recon reports the eye open southwest. Also radar seems to show this.

D values in the eye have risen slightly, indicating slightly higher pressure.

Is the most likely reason for the rise in pressure and drop in wind speed due to ERC?
The outflow on the extreme NW part of the storm looks like it is being slightly restricted by the trough in Tx. I would think that this is going to cause K to come in a little farther East of the current track. This might be the best news New Orleans has ever heard. Just a 30 mile jog to the E and a decrease in winds by 15 mph would make an incredible difference.
My tropical expertise in meteorology is poor seeing that I enjoyed the focus on mesoscale systems in the Great Plains ...

Latest discussion out by NHC talks about the broadening of the wind field of HK and the slow (and painfull) dissolving of the inner eyewall and 'formative' nature of the outer eyewall ...

This sounds like an Opal repeat ... maybe not as dramatic. Based on model output the trough over TX is apparent along with the easterly adjacent sub-tropical ridge ...

Question is are we seeing this possible weakening of HK due to the upper level flow east of the trough? Sadly I haven't painstakenly labored to understand the kinematics as to why Charlie exploded just prior to making landfall around Puntagorda, FL ... I can only contribute that the possible weakening of HK is due to either regular cycling (ERC) or some sort of shearing ...

I just spoke to a college friend who works as a contractor at the FEMA National Processing Service Center (NPSC) in Denton, TX. This call center will be the lead for helping people with aid after this Hurricane has done its damage. FEMA is pulling out all of the stops on this one. They have basically dusted off many of the continuity of government plans that were created for a limited attack of the United States by the former Soviet Union. There will be a massive military presence as soon as the storm is deemed “safe.â€￾

I would suggest all chasers heed directions by anyone that appears to be in authority. The local sheriff does not have time to deal with you, but a 22 year old reservist with an M-16 would probably much rather guard you than throw around 75 pound sand bags.

Technically, as a disaster has been declared people can already call to apply for assistance 1-800-621-FEMA (3362). The speech or hearing impaired may call (TTY) 1-800-462-7585.

If you have friends or relatives that will be affected, please do everything you can to get them into the system early. With their permission, you may want to call FEMA as them. Be prepared to give their Social Security number, describe the losses, provide financial information, and give directions to the damaged property. (Given the intensity, it is not too hard to estimate total destruction).

I am not advocating fraud, just helping loved-ones get in early so they can get aid the fastest. This is how the Federal government works.