8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Justin Turcotte]

I've seen a lot of hurricanes take a slight jog west prior landfall owing to frictional convergence (Ivan and Dennis as starters). The effect appears to be more noteworthy for storms having a western component. The models may have a track slightly east of Nola but I wouldn't be surprised if it took a short hike west prior to landfall. It's VERY flat down there and a surge could go miles inland. Yikes.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

MODERATOR:

A friendly remind that ALL posts must contain something other than JUST a link to a readily-available NHC product or NHC wording from one of their products. While we're correctly enforcing rules only loosely given the magnitude and historical significance of the events, we still cannot let all rules slide.

Originally posted by Map Room rules

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post weather bulletins and forecast images except as brief excerpts and with original supporting information. Frivolous content is prohibited.

--> http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7749

It's fine to include short tidbits from NHC products, but you must include some of your own interpretation, thoughts, etc.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

With the drop in pressure observed, it had already been expected to make a jump to Category 4 sustained windspeeds. With the latest NHC special advisory, it has become readily apparent that this storm has become incredibly dangerous beyond what I had assumed to be this storm's limit. It was expected to make 145 mph before landfall, now its here. I'm sorry if I maybe repeating myself, but we still have a long way to go until landfall and no end in sight.

In my opinion, we could be looking at a Cat 5 by landfall. A major Cat 5. I don't want to sound like a pessimist, but all factors point to something that I feel to be absolutely sickening. More later, especially once we get a regular advisory in.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I agree that the storm has the potential to possibly be cat 5 strength i'm sure it will be at one point in the next two days, but often with powerfull hurricanes such as this one they under go many eye regenerations that are almost impossible to forecast, if the hurricane happens to make landfall during a regeneration we could be looking at a cat 3, while still strong, thats a far cry from a cat 5. Hopefully we'll see the eye collapse shortly before landfall.

 

[MClarkson]

satellites out of eclipse... wow

the eye is now almost completely clear and looks like its 40-50NM wide. The CDO is not completely symetric nor is the eye... but i'll bet it will get there soon.

The returning plane picked up a flight level wind of 137 knots... the next plane should be taking off about now and should be in the storm in perhaps an hour+ They dont have to fly very far...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I haven't kept up with this thread so I don't know if this has been mentioned, but high tide along the Louisiana coast will be in the early morning hours Monday, same time as projected landfall:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/pre...IDLIX&version=0

Not much of a tide from what I can tell, but it's worth noting.

Is there ANY modelled surge data online? I can't seem to find anything. If it even existed in numerical format we could add it to our suite of maps. Apparently graphics like this (not Katrina) exist but they don't seem to be online anywhere.

Tim

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Out of curiosity, does anyone here think that this storm may be transitioning to an annular state? It's becoming very symmetrical with a large eye, not much in the way of feeder bands... a giant donut, more or less. I'm not very well versed in annular hurricanes and so I don't know how to definitively tell if a storm is transitioning to that state or not. I know that nearly perfect atmospheric and SST conditions are needed for an annular hurricane, and that's the current setup in the Gulf.

FWIW, you can view free streaming television news (Channel 4WWL) out of New Orleans here:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmP...&props=livenoad

No registration is required.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

BTW, Tim -- here is a slosh map made for a Cat 4 approaching from the south:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sloshnewcat4.gif

I found that on another web board, so I can't verify it's authenticity. The realtime surge models, which are unfortunately much less detailed and only give heights for a few stations, is here:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index....ap.htm&map=0-48

 

[Tim Vasquez]

20 feet over New Orleans? Holy cow. I get the impression these models are precomputed. If so I wonder whether why we aren't getting the benefit of variables like storm path/position and fetch direction.

Tim

 

[Simon Brewer]

Katrina currently looks similiar to a recent CAT 5 Atlantic Hurricane, Isabell.

Also, if the projected storm path turns out to verify and Katrina ends up making landfall after an eyewall repl. cycle then this could be the worst scenario for N. Orleans and would most likely destroy that area and make Katrina the costliest U.S. hurricane on record.

Hurricane Isabel:

Reed Timmer and I will be somewhere in Louisianna within the next 10 hours trying to find high and safe ground.

Simon

 

[MClarkson]

Sea level extrap=915 mb.

Flight level winds reduced to surface=130 knots

circular eye... solid CDO thats close to symetrical.

sounds like a borderline 5.

 

[Oscar van der Velde]

Convective Weather Maps (GFS 0.5 deg grid) for Katrina

For the interested, I updated the Convective Weather Maps again for North America, it is just lovely to see hurricanes in it :roll:

Convective Weather Maps (GFS 0.5 deg grid) (now 18Z 27/8 run with Katrina)

Oscar

 

[Chris Hayes]

Winds are now up to 145, expected to reach Cat 5 before landfall. Target is still New Orleans. :cry: I have a feeling this could be a monumental disaster. I looked at all the computer models, and they basically all show it making a direct hit or a just west of NO hit on the city.

 

[Mike Smith]

910 mb. It is now a Cat 5.

 

[Anthony Silver]

From category 3 to category 5 in just 7 hours :shock:. Unbelievable!
Obviously things are not loooking good for the ncntrl Gulf Coast...and I would expect things to only get worse before landfall. At the present time...sustained winds are at 160 mph, and looking over everything, I would expect it to strengthen by later today. It also appears it's speed has accelerated a little bit compared to just 2 hours ago. I hope everyone in New Orleans is "running for the border". Looks like a major catastrophe is imminent.