8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Mike Johnson]

I have to agree with Shane 100%. After channel surfing through the last few hurricanes, I've seen some really risky reporting. I do not think the average reporter understands what a Cat. 4-5 with a 20 foot storm surge can do -- or how wind-driven debris can fly at over 140 mph. I think some of the news people have impressions of Ivan, Dennis and Frances in mind. Not all storms weaken before landfall. I hope no one is hurt or killed, but sooner or later there is going to be another Camille -- or worse.

Mike

 

[Dan Robinson]

Originally posted by MClarkson
If your in the upper floors of a solid parking garage it wont be that dangerous to a chaser or his vehicle... you just might be there for a while if the entire city floods.

And that's if you can find a parking garage that has room. I'm sure every elevated parking spot in the city is probably taken.

 

[HAltschule]

Might I venture to forecast a landfall over Biloxi, MS...home of the Hurricane Hunters. That would be fitting!! The new 00z ETA now brings Katrina right into this area.......still as a major hurricane. Will New Orleans escape a major hurricane again, we'll see. Anyone else like the Biloxi area?

 

[HAltschule]

Update: 11pm Advisory

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUSBATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

FYI...Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL is now reporting wave heights of 32.5 feet!! ....Holy Crapola!!!

 

[MClarkson]

satellite presentation is improving... clearing eye and improving symetry. Looks like the eyewall replacement cycle is over, if the internal structure continues to improve and with the extremely favorable conditions, this has all the makings for rapid intensification.

EDIT: look at the outflow level winds tommorow progged for early monday morning shortly before landfall... they get better in all quadrants... especially with that jet to the north.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/winds...hr_125_wind.gif

 

[Mark Farnik]

Just turned on the weather Channel and I groaned. They've got Jeff Morrow in the Big Easy. You would think of all media outlets the Weather Channel would be the last one to send one of their own into the Big Easy in advance of what will probably be a direct strike from a strong Cat 4/minimal Cat 5 with storm surge forecast to rival that of Camille's. :roll: :roll: They are telling everyone to get out or stay away from New Orleans, and yet they send a meteorologist into the city in advance of what could be the worst hurricane strike in decades. I think Shane's right; Katrina probably will be the first tropical system to claim the life of a member of the media.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Latest

Preasure is down to 939 on the last report I saw with sustained winds still at 115 mph. This thing is going to get nasty really quick. I don't see New Orleans as the landfall point though. I think they will get spared but not by much. I was in Hawaii when Iniki hit (I lived on Oahu) and I can remember that morning we thought we were going to get a direct hit... I sat on the beach watching 30 ft waves on the south shore! These people better be taking the warning seriously and heading out of town!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Katrina cannot possibly be a cat3 anymore, judging by satellite presentation as of 0300z.

 

[Mike Johnson]

I agree with the strength and IR image... it is starting to look like Hurricane Mitch did when it went Cat. 5. If Katrina does not weaken -- this will be one of the biggest disasters in US history.

Mike

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Originally posted by MClarkson
If your in the upper floors of a solid parking garage it wont be that dangerous to a chaser or his vehicle... you just might be there for a while if the entire city floods.

Would you really call riding out a three-hour-long F3 tornado in a parking garage while 35 feet of debris-filled toxic whitewater swirls around you "not dangerous"? Everything about chasing a Cat 4/5 is dangerous. There are no safe bets. I have nothing against informed and experienced people taking that risk, but please, don't understate it.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Getting back to the topic...

This thing really developed that eye in the past 30-40 minutes! Almost completely cleared out, I would venture to say we are looking at a CAT 4 right now as well. And, it still looks to have a WNW track, which would bring it into New Orleans... Unless there is a serious jog northward in the next 12 hours, I don't see this thing striking anything east of MS.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Katrina has definitely strengthened since this morning. Its winds are still at 115mph but the pressure has dropped to 936mb. The eye is now clear and well defined. The sea surface temperatures are quite warm and it does not seem as if there will be any wind shear to weaken the storm before it makes landfall. As for a landfall point, it is still hard to say exactly where it will hit. The combination of a weak trough and the ridge building towards the west should allow Katrina to continue to move WNW, then NW, and then N. Several models show Katrina making landfall near New Orleans or just to the east including the WRF, ETA, and the GFDL. I would expect landfall to be between Houma, Louisiana or New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. If I could pick one place to be at it would be Gulfport, Mississippi. This should have something good if no major changes happen. However, last time I tried to post a forecast on a hurricane it did the opposite of what I said. Maybe I jinxed it. :lol:

 

[Justin Bailey]

katrina

i agree with both mike and bob. if it is a low end cat. 3 it is the strongest looking cat. 3 i've ever seen. with the pressure at 939 mb, and it being at the tail end of an ERC i would fully expect K to have 130+ mph winds come morning. And you can bet the pressure will continue dropping. I also dont understand why New Orleans isn't under emandatory evacuations yet. watching the news at 6 o'clock I still saw a bunch of people walking around town, and then i see Jeff Morrow!!! These people really dont understand the seriousness of the situation. and you would think the weather channel would know better. i guess we will just have to wait and see what happens overnight. maybe N.O. will get lucky again. I dont know. i just dont understand it. God Bless whoever this BEAST decides to slam into.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Hurricane hunters had confirmed it was a category 3 before the 11 pm advisory, HOWEVER Mike Bettes on the Weather Channel said another report after the advisory said the pressure had fallen 3 mb.

Also I have a Dvorak T-Number to 6.0 now, not sure if thats accurate but I believe so. That is consistent with winds ~132 mph and a category 4 hurricane.

New Orleans should be concerned, and you'd think more people would take this seriously especailly after the 2004 season. It is hard to convince the stubborn people but i think Max Mayfield hit the nail on the head...

"The guidance we get and common sense and experience suggests this storm is not done strengthening," Mayfield said in a telephone call from Miami-Dade County, which was hit by a Category 1 Katrina earlier in the week.

"This is really scary," he said. "This is not a test, as your governor said earlier today. This is the real thing."

Mayfield warned residents intent on not leaving in advance of Katrina to learn from the storm's effects in south Florida.

"The bottom line is this is a worst-case scenario and everybody needs to recognize it," he said. "You can always rebuild your house, but you can never regain a life. And there's no point risking your life and the lives of your children."

EDIT: First ever mandatory evacuation in New Orleans history to commence tomorrow morning. Apparently from some sources in that area they say the mayor was just on the air and he sounded in shock. He had been on the phone with NHC before 10 pm and they said winds likely exceeding 145 MPH. He said nows the time to leave and please do it.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Justin Bailey]

K

this thing continues to look better and better organized in each new satelite image. its been amazing to watch it grow in areal coverage all day today and now we are gonna see the winds pick up fairly rapidly. in the last to frames it looks to have really intensified. i belive we are currently looking at a cat. 4 hurricane Katrina that isn't being taken seriously. i guess everyone thinks it'll weaken before landfall like alot of the hurricanes have done recently.

alex. what is your source. 145+ likely!!! thats getting serious. its about time they ordered the evacuation. i was seriously wondering how long they would wait. question now is is it to late?