8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[mikegeukes]

Alex Lamers wrote:

Does anyone know where to find the FSU super ensemble progs online? In general but also for hurricane winds/mslp?

The links I know are password protected.
http://lexxy.met.fsu.edu/rtnwp/
http://lexxy.met.fsu.edu/rtnwp/forecasts/forecast.html

Mike
I am in a cheap motel with WIFI, still homeless.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

This is not a forecast, but rather saftey advice for chasers. If this is offtopic, I'll be glad to move it to weather and chasing -- but I didn't want to violate the "don't discuss ongoing storms" rule there.

If you're planning on chasing Katrina, please consider the following advice: even if the storm appears to be dead-set on hitting New Orleans, DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BASE IN NEW ORLEANS. (To many this is obvious, but perhaps not to all). A direct hit major on New Orleans would be catastrophic, with Red Cross estimates of 25,000 and 100,000 killed. You don't want to be one of them.

Below is a link to an article about what happens if this turns out to be "the big one" for NOLA:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/w...hebigone_1.html

Here is a fairly straightforward and informative graphic:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/going...ngunder_jpg.jpg

Cantore has been spotted in southern Mississippi. I doubt even he would wade into New Orleans if NOLA turns out to be the bullseye.

Be careful out there, guys and gals!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

LOL I guess they should have delayed the 2am advisory for a few more minutes. The 2am advisory listed estimated pressure at 963 and winds of 110mph. A new VORTEX message JUST came in (about 15 minutes after the 2am issuance time) and listed a minimum central pressure of 950mb with an "excellent radar presentation"! I guess we're in the GOES blackout time, but the difference between the estimated and measured pressue is crazy. The max winds reported on the VORTEX is still "only" 91kts, though those will pick up very soon I imagine. The motion is STILL to the WSW. I do wonder if there's a chance that the storm will continue WSW and actually miss the weakness in the ridge to the north. She certainly hasn't shown a whole lot of "desire" to move with any northward component, despite that fact that now, nearly every model ceases any southward movement. This kind of reminds me of Isabel back in 2002 (I believe), which persisted over the Yucatan for days, despite every model forecasting a relatively quick move off the Yucatan .

 

[MClarkson]

950mb almost exactly matches the GFDL from 18 hours ago(949mb). that run bottomed out at ~930.

I think the flight level winds often lag behind rapid pressure drops... and the plane has just arrived and hasnt sampled much of the storm yet. Id guess that 91 knots at 10,000 feet is going to be going up pretty soon.

EDIT: a dropsonde just picked up a 925mb wind of 123 knots, unless im reading it wrong.

743
UZNT13 KNHC 270618
XXAA 77067 99243 70839 08143 99959 26200 ///// 00874 ///// /////
92317 24400 18623

 

[Jeff Snyder]

EDIT: a dropsonde just picked up a 925mb wind of 123 knots, unless im reading it wrong.

743
UZNT13 KNHC 270618
XXAA 77067 99243 70839 08143 99959 26200 ///// 00874 ///// /////
92317 24400 18623

For whatever reason, I'm not decoding it correctly, since I just heard whats-his-name on TWC mention that a dropsonde just recorded a 125kt wind a "few hundred meters" above the surface. I REALLY can't imagine that it's a cat. 4 hurricane right now, however... I mean, 950mb is low, but it's very much on the high-end for a Cat 4. Maybe when the pressure gets down to 935mb or so. Of course, if it's a 125kt gust, then you could believe a 105kt sustained wind, which is more reasonable given the current pressure.

 

[MClarkson]

you also gotta reduce it to surface... thats like 85% or around 105 knots?

its the 18623 group. Im pretty sure that meens 185 degrees, and the 6 meens you add 100 knots.

 

[Joel Wright]

Katrina will likely continue to strengthen to a strong CAT 4, and then as it begins to turn towards the north will probably weaken as it begins to turn. After that it will likely struggle to restrengthen as it approaches the gulf coast.

It seems that almost every hurricane that starts making a strong right turn AFTER (and I mean after) it has become a very powerful hurricane weakens quite a bit as it turns. This doesn't really apply to weaker/less established tropical systems. I really hope I'm correct on this for obvious reasons. A CAT 4+ landfall in Louisianna would be bad.

It just seems that after a hurricane reaches such a strong state, a jog to the right always seems to significantly weaken it.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

This is not a forecast, but rather saftey advice for chasers. If this is offtopic, I'll be glad to move it to weather and chasing -- but I didn't want to violate the "don't discuss ongoing storms" rule there.

If you're planning on chasing Katrina, please consider the following advice: even if the storm appears to be dead-set on hitting New Orleans, DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BASE IN NEW ORLEANS. (To many this is obvious, but perhaps not to all). A direct hit major on New Orleans would be catastrophic, with Red Cross estimates of 25,000 and 100,000 killed. You don't want to be one of them.

Below is a link to an article about what happens if this turns out to be "the big one" for NOLA:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/w...hebigone_1.html

Here is a fairly straightforward and informative graphic:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/going...ngunder_jpg.jpg

Cantore has been spotted in southern Mississippi. I doubt even he would wade into New Orleans if NOLA turns out to be the bullseye.

Be careful out there, guys and gals!

I've already said no way in hell and I going to be in New Orleans for this thing. There are probably places that you could survive the actual storm in but after the city filled with flood waters and dead bodies, disease and mosquitos would probably do you in as you would be stuck there because of the water. it can only be pumped out but those pumps cant handle that kind of water.

I'll likely be on the north shore/slidell or MS gulf coast, still track depending. Alot of the models track guidance is to the east of NHC guidance. The BAMM and BAMD are both over pascagoula.

 

[Alex Lamers]

The damage modeling group (as of 1106AM CDT when I checked it) suggested the following numbers based on NHC's current forecast.

* $ 1.45 BIL damage in Mississippi
* $ 3.63 BIL damage in Louisiana
* $ 6.94 BIL damage in the United States
* Over 1 million people in the path of flooding and hurricane force winds in Louisiana.

Doesn't look good any way you slice it.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Dave Lewison]

Agree with Blake completely. I'm not from around that area, but I've looked at some topo maps and flooding risk maps, and I agree that New Orleans is no place to be. Looks like NW parts of Slidell might be far enough above sea level to be away from flooding danger.

I will be making the long trip from NYC today, targeting near Slidell at this point. I sure hope this storm doesn't meander like Frances did...and that it makes a timely landfall on Monday and moves on quickly. I need to be back to Orlando for my flight on Tuesday night!

Does anyone know how well the I-10 might recover from this? i.e., am I likely to be able to drive back east on I-10 when the storm's over?

----Dave----

 

[Brian Press]

This is interesting. What does this mean. Two eye walls? Does this mean the storm is stronger than it looks? Is hail not common with these large tropical systems? Could it be the day after tomorrow?

"The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters made some interesting observations Saturday morning. Just before 5am, small hail was observed in the southeast quadrant at a height of roughly 8000-9000 feet. Around 11am EDT, concentric eyewalls (meaning two of them, one inside another) were witnessed."

Safe chasing eveyone. I was in Virgina Beach for a surfing contest when hurricane Bonnie hit in 1998 (?). It was intense. I could not even imagine a CAT 4 or 5. Bonnie was a CAT 2 I think.

Be carefull out there.

B.p

 

[Howard Robinson]

Two Eye walls

IT chould be that they came in during an eye wall replacement cycle. Strong Hurricanes will go thur eye wall replacement cycles all the time. It also means that is one strong hurricane.


Feel free to correct me guys if I am wrong.


Howard Robinson

 

[Howard Robinson]

This is not a forecast, but rather saftey advice for chasers. If this is offtopic, I'll be glad to move it to weather and chasing -- but I didn't want to violate the "don't discuss ongoing storms" rule there.

If you're planning on chasing Katrina, please consider the following advice: even if the storm appears to be dead-set on hitting New Orleans, DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BASE IN NEW ORLEANS. (To many this is obvious, but perhaps not to all). A direct hit major on New Orleans would be catastrophic, with Red Cross estimates of 25,000 and 100,000 killed. You don't want to be one of them.

Below is a link to an article about what happens if this turns out to be "the big one" for NOLA:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/w...hebigone_1.html

Here is a fairly straightforward and informative graphic:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/going...ngunder_jpg.jpg

Cantore has been spotted in southern Mississippi. I doubt even he would wade into New Orleans if NOLA turns out to be the bullseye.

Be careful out there, guys and gals!

Sorry for the double, That goes without saying DON'T base yourself in New Orleans. I bet none of the news crews would go to New Orleans if that is the bullseye.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This is not a forecast, but rather saftey advice for chasers. If this is offtopic, I'll be glad to move it to weather and chasing -- but I didn't want to violate the "don't discuss ongoing storms" rule there.

There are probably places that you could survive the actual storm in but after the city filled with flood waters and dead bodies, disease and mosquitos would probably do you in as you would be stuck there because of the water.

Also not sure if I should post this here or in another thread, but another major risk is to your vehicle. The chances of you losing your car to water from this storm are very high, likely more so than with a landfall anywhere else in the USA. Some insurance policies won't cover flood loss, and especially if the car was there intentionally. That would be an expensive chase. If I was there I'd be more worried about losing my $25,000 car with no flood insurance coverage than I would about my survival.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Am I the only one concerned about the timing here? The 12Z GFDL and GFS both have the center near or over shore in the New Orleans area at 12Z Monday, which is about 6 hours faster than earlier runs. This means tropical storm conditions would be over the metro as early as ~10pm Sunday night! TWC and other media outlets are still advertising a Monday afternoon landfall for some reason. If the worst case scenario happens with a cat. 4-5 right over the city, and it arrives this quickly, there is simply not enough time left to prepare.