8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Chris Hayes]

I didn't notice that. It takes 72 hours to evacuate the New Orleans Metro area. Very bad situation setting up for New Orleans. :shock:

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Every model I see and all my gut feelings are wondering why New Orleans residents are not being TOLD to leave at this time. I know they were with Dennis and they got lucky, but their luck looks to just about to run out.
This morning I heard on the local news that someone (local met said this, found no verification anywhere else) that Katrina may be a 5 at landfall. YIKES! :shock: I can not imagine a cat 5 with New Orleans on the dirty side. Is Emergency Management asleep in the Big Easy?

IF Katrina comes farther west into W Louisiana or even E Texas, all ST alumni chasing her have a sure place to stop if needed here in Katy.

 

[Scott Olson]

It looks like the track may be shifting slightly west. As of present the NOGAPS, GFDL and BAMD BAMS are further left of the offical track with only the UKMET farther east. Im currently favoring the GFS track between the NOGAPS and GFDL that would take K through Terrabone Bay. This solution would keep the eye of K roughly 25-30 miles SW/W or New Orleans. Still could be devastating for the area and there is little change in the magnitude of damage to the oil supply. The LBAR, GFDL and NHC track would be absolutely devastating. Espically since there not enough time for a full evacuation.

latest TAOS LOUISIANA $ 18.24 Billion :roll:

 

[Justin Bailey]

Katrina

in the latest discussion the storm prediction center is saying that K could reach cat. 5 status sometime before landfall, but there remains a possibility of a concentric eywall cycle before landfall which cuold throw off the intensity forcast a bit. also gfdl, which has done the best job forcasting this system so far, is forcasting a 131 kt storm at landfall!!! seems to me the TPC is relying on an eyewall replacement to keep this BEAST from being a catastrophic cat. 5 at landfall. I fear New Orleans may not have enough time. i hate to say it, but Katrina may be worse than Andrew.

 

[Chris Hayes]

They just said on the news that 10% of the population of the New Orleans metro area will probably be riding out the storm, because they dont have the money or a car to leave the city. If this thing tracks just to the west of New Orleans and the city is flooded, this could easily be on the scale of Hurricane Camille, when it comes to death toll, and higher damage totals than Andrew. This could be a chatastrophic event for Louisisana

 

[Bob Schafer]

I have a vid about Andrew that placed Andrew's cost at $30bil. In 1992 dollars. Let's also keep in mind that Andrew mostly missed Miami. Now, that figure may have been adjusted downward since then, but I've been saying for years that a cat5 strike on a major metro area would do $100bil in damage. And.....New Orleans seems to be the absolute worst major metro area to sustain a cat5.

That's my completely layman's take.

Someone explain how that is wrong.

Bob

P.S. I'm supposed to be flying from ABQ to CMH on Tuesday...changing planes in STL. Then, I'm supposed to fly CMH to BWI Wed. I don't believe that's gonna happen.

 

[Justin Bailey]

.

there doesnt appear to be anything to slow K down or weaken it. i guess the only question remaing is, is this going to be "THE BIG ONE" that meteorolagists have been warning of and we've all been afraid of ????

 

[Bob Schafer]

Without knowing all the variables, I assume from looking at the webpage earlier provided,

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/going...ngunder_jpg.jpg

that the critical factor is whether or not the Lake Pontchartrain levee is breached, at 14.5 feet ASL.

I also see that buoy 42003 has been reporting wave heights of near 25 feet, at a distance of approximately 86nm from K's eye. I don't know whether wave heights are MSL to crests, or crests to troughs. Someone?

These wave heights, of course, would not correspond directly to surge. Neither is a distance of 86nm from eye reflective of the conditions that would be present closer to the eyewall, and with a strong cat4 or minimal cat5 vs K's present cat3 strength.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=250&time=3

Bob

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Re: .

Originally posted by Justin Bailey
there doesnt appear to be anything to slow K down or weaken it. i guess the only question remaing is, is this going to be \"THE BIG ONE\" that meteorolagists have been warning of and we've all been afraid of ????

Wet Suit, Check

Underwater gear for video, Check

In the flood zone, Check...

Currently in New Orleans. If your not hear now, your not getting in. All the major roads in and out are all outbound to the west and north.

This is pretty much as we thought it was going to to last week and hit the big easy.

 

[HAltschule]

I think I have to agree with everyone..stay far away from New Orleans....chasers, media, everybody. Katrina is still on track to strike New Orleans with devastating results if she makes a direct hit at the forecasted intensity. This NWS statement from N.O. caught my attention...."WHILE EXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA." A storm surge like this would be absolutely devastating. We'll have to see what happens. The models are still not all that consistent with the track and the storm hasn't strengethened that much since yesterday..yet...and it hasn't made the turn yet either. I guess I'm saying that IF all of these things line up and happen just right, then there will be trouble in N'Orleans. But...it is still 48 hours out. Watching....

 

[Mike Johnson]

I have to admit... it's a gutsy move to be in New Orleans! I am guessing
that it will not hit directly there as everyone has been predicting -- but
if I lived there I'd be moving out! BTW: Last IR loop image looked like
a big jaunt to the north but it might just be the eye wall re-forming to the
north.

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

This could be the first hurricane where a media person gets killed. I'd almost wager on it, since the "near death" shots have become as common as a tornado in a field. Only thing left to do is die.

 

[MClarkson]

If your in the upper floors of a solid parking garage it wont be that dangerous to a chaser or his vehicle... you just might be there for a while if the entire city floods.

 

[Brandon Clement]

They just said on the news that 10% of the population of the New Orleans metro area will probably be riding out the storm, because they dont have the money or a car to leave the city. If this thing tracks just to the west of New Orleans and the city is flooded, this could easily be on the scale of Hurricane Camille, when it comes to death toll, and higher damage totals than Andrew. This could be a chatastrophic event for Louisisana

New Orleans will open up the Superdome as a shelter just before she hits. Almost everyone left will end up there with the national guard running it like a prison. From what I heard after Lilly, it gets very rough in there.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
This could be the first hurricane where a media person gets killed.

I was thinking the same thing. The folks they send into these situations to show us what it's like just don't have the knowledge to survive a hurricane if it really came down to it.

Min central pressure as reported by recon data is down to 942mb (extrap from H7) as of 0001z; this is as Katrina is nearing the end of an ERC and from here on out, the pressure will do nothing but drop until the next ERC - hopefully near enough to landfall that it lessens the blow some. However, I fear that we have only seen the tip of Kat's intensity iceberg.