8/23/05 FCST: Hurricane Katrina

[Jeff Miller]

WOW.

910 mb. It is now a Cat 5.

Make that 908. Katrina is now barometrically stronger than Camille. This storm stil has a rather large eyewall which can still shrink further, which means that potentially the storm could intensify further before a new eyewall replacement cycle begins... which could steady or weaken it somewhat before intensifying again. This is the big one folks, the granddaddy.

 

[B Ozanne]

Tropical Storm force winds could be reaching parts of Louisisana in 5-6 hours (as of 0800est)

I noticed some talk about the tides and storm surge. During nor'easters in Long Island Sound high and low tide dissapears. It becomes high and higher tide. As the water piles up in the sound it simply doesn't leave during the low tide cycle, and when high tide comes around even more water piles on top.

 

[Mike Smith]

Jeff,
Not finding the 908 mb report. Where is it posted?
Mike

 

[MClarkson]

Just think... we might be watching one of the epic storms of our time.

Im really mad I dont have the money and equipment to camp out in NO for weeks. Alas I am a poor student.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Originally posted by MClarkson
Just think... we might be watching one of the epic storms of our time.

Im really mad I dont have the money and equipment to camp out in NO for weeks. Alas I am a poor student.

NO ONE should be in New Orleans, let alone a storm chaser.

 

[Jeff Miller]

re:

908 MB report was reported by meteorologist on WWL-TV looking at data over his laptop, therefore, I would call this an unconfirmed report, however, based on media information, would consider that accurate. Anyone else can find confirmation on that would be appreciated. I am looking for confirmation on that as well.

EDIT: WWL-TV confirming 908 MB pressure. They are live-casting.

EDIT:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.

Therefore, its confirmed that this is barometrically stronger than Camille, has a larger windfield than many strong hurricanes, and is basically much like a large F3 Tornado with a wall of water heading right for New Orleans.

LINK: www.wwltv.com

 

[MClarkson]

Originally posted by Chris Hayes+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Chris Hayes)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-MClarkson

Just think... we might be watching one of the epic storms of our time.

Im really mad I dont have the money and equipment to camp out in NO for weeks. Alas I am a poor student.

NO ONE should be in New Orleans, let alone a storm chaser.[/b]

Someone has to be there to document this event. Doug said he is there. I bet there are others too.

EDIT Again: Besides, the eye might come ashore outside of NO. Both the GFDL and UKMET are east into MS now.

EDIT: the 908 comes from a NHC bulletin, upgrading the storm to Cat 5 with 160mph winds. For whatever reason its not on their site.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

It's really hard to imagine that the central pressure is down that low already! The satellite presentation is not overly impressive, and yet it seems that further strengthening and organization is likely. :shock: The skies the limit on this one, apparently. The worst-case scenario for the United States in general is coming to fruition (let alone the worst-case scenario for N.O.). There is a good possibility the central pressure will drop into the upper 890s....that's downright scary. If this one landfalls at something below 900 mb, it will be more than catastrophic.

The lowest pressure at landfall ever in the United States was 892 mb in the Labor Day storm of 1935. This is getting close to rivaling that one...

Gabe

 

[Robert Dewey]

All of the models now have this thing either hitting N.O. dead on, or about 10 miles to the west. One model is further east, and that seems to be the odd man out. Right now, it looks like the eyewall is weakening, probably preparing for another eyewall replacement cycle - if that happens, it will likely replace just in time to strike the coast at full intensity...

I sure hope everyone in N.O. is prepared...

 

[Justin Bailey]

.

thats the same thing i was seeing, and the last thing i wanted to see. if it is going through another ERC this BEAST could make landfall as a strong cat 5. i couldn't believe how fast K strengthened. i went to bed with at 115 mph and wake up with it at 160 mph. does anyone know what the highest sustained winds ever recorded where? just curious. also, how long is Jeff Morrow going to stay in NO? he doesn't have much time to get out. NOBODY should in there right mind even think about being in NO by monday.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Hurricane Gilbert was at 888 MB and had winds of 184 mph at it's peak. Is there anything other than an eyewall replacement cycle that could weaken this thing before we see the destruction of New Orleans and much of the Mississippi coast line tommorow?

 

[HAltschule]

No one belongs in New Orleans. "Responsible" Meteorologists and storm chasers know that. Others do not. How do you get coverage in this kind of storm? Easy...setup live cameras in many strategic places and punch them up on TV from a remote location. We don't need anyone to tell us its windy or raining...all we need is the video. I sure hope people are smart with this one!!

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I woke up this morning expecting a path change or a weakening and there's neither.

1) From what I'm seeing in the surge forecasts (20 ft), the New Orleans floodwalls will be broken. I believe they were constructed for 12-15 ft. Can anyone elaborate on this? Is anyone seeing different surge estimates?

2) The eyewall will reach Louisiana's two key oil terminals, especially if the track shifts west slightly. If it shifts east, the damage will be weaker.

Barring any changes, I'm thinking we have one of the greatest disasters in American history about to unfold. I agree that no chasers should be in that part of Louisiana unless they (1) are thoroughly prepared for zero infrastructure, (2) have reviewed the topography of that area to plan how to get out after serious flooding, and (3) are carrying enough gas to make it out of Louisiana.

Tim

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'd like to know the estimated number of people staying in the New Orleans metro area. I know it's in the thousands. This will easily be the costliest disaster in American history. I'm scared that there could be major loss of life, even in the shelters that are opening. I agree with Tim, we are facing one of the greatest disasters in American history.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
I woke up this morning expecting a path change or a weakening and there's neither.

1) From what I'm seeing in the surge forecasts (20 ft), the New Orleans floodwalls will be broken. I believe they were constructed for 12-15 ft. Can anyone elaborate on this? Is anyone seeing different surge estimates?

2) The eyewall will reach Louisiana's two key oil terminals, especially if the track shifts west slightly. If it shifts east, the damage will be weaker.

Barring any changes, I'm thinking we have one of the greatest disasters in American history about to unfold. I agree that no chasers should be in that part of Louisiana unless they (1) are thoroughly prepared for zero infrastructure, (2) have reviewed the topography of that area to plan how to get out after serious flooding, and (3) are carrying enough gas to make it out of Louisiana.

Tim

I too woke up expecting the track to be shifted slightly east. Now it appears the only model with a much further east track is the NAM, and it just isn't going to happen that way. The eyewall looks like it will be replacing itself just before landfall, and with even warmer Gulf of Mexico waters further towards shore, I would say this thing has the potential of reaching 165MPH max sustained winds.

The only way I would ever think of venturing down there would be if I had lots of money, stayed in a very study structure within the highest part of town, and had my own personal helicopter to pick me up when everything is all said and done...

EDIT: Chris Hayes, last I heard (possibly a rumor) was that around 100,000 people are not evacuating...