6/4/08 FCST: KS/NE/OK/CO/IA

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm completely torn by the nice parameters in the north, and the thought mentioned in the previous post about better chances of isolation in the south. It's total give and take, as usual. The northern/southern target trade-offs have presented themselves so many times this year, and so far the southern targets have been winning, imo. I keep saying that if the situation is between a sure storm in Nebraska or a possible cap bust in Kansas, go with your gut and stick with Kansas. Today I'm just more torn than ever. RUC sure only likes precip in the north right now. And the CAPE map looks almost identical to yesterday, with a westerly geographic shift. It really makes me wonder if the result will be the same tonight with northern and eastern targets being able to get the job done. So I'm going to go totally against my gut instinct and head to Marysville to Belleville, Kansas today. If there is another 5/29/04 Attica today that happens in Great Bend, I'm going to feel nauseated.

 

[Mark Blue]

Our target for today is Hays KS. We will set up shop there in my wife's red VW GTI where we can watch the data and refine the target if necessary. If you see us stop by and say hi as we are friendly types. We are trying at all costs to avoid doubling back to areas we just drove from earlier in the day as my wife is tired of driving all over BF Egypt!! I figure if the warm front lights up we can book up to Hill City and if the dryline takes off we can move south pretty easily from there. I think the parameters have been pretty well covered in other posts, so I won't cover those again. I agree with Warren above on the extra upper air samplings as that is some pretty dry air down in Amarillo and Clovis and will have to be watched closely. Good luck to all who are out and about today.

Mark & Jane

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm having a tough time picking a target based on the 12z NAM, 12z RUC, and 00z explicit-convection WRF runs.

FWIW and I'm guessing you probably noticed, but that WRF run had an insane mcs driven ofb flying through KS by now.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/tcolc_f14.gif
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/tcolc_f15.gif

So it's thoughts after that point seem pretty pointless in KS anyway.

If the ruc is to be believed with the sfc, I'd guess it'd be best to be very near the KS/NE border. I'm just glad no signs of the NAM's big morning MCS. I'm heading for Hebron fairly soon, maybe go south to Salina by then, maybe not go anywhere. Good luck to all. Enjoy normal storm speeds today.

 

[Tyler Allison]

After surface map analysis and model review a couple of us from CoD (Paul Sirvatka, David Mayhew, myself) are heading out of Chicago to Moline, IL. Paul has been doing analysis for the past 2 hours and the models and the setup are just too confusing to target a specific location at this time. For the Northern chasers the analysis doesn't look good enough to warrant the haul to somewhere deeper into Iowa at this point but we plan to do another analysis in Moline in a few hours. See you out there...be safe.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Sitting here in Limon, CO at the TA Truck Stop. Will be meeting up with Andrew Stoller shortly and we will be heading east. Our preliminary target for the day is Hays, Kansas, from which we can play north or south on 283 as necessary. Still having a gut feeling that the Highway 36 corridor from Phillipsburg to Belleville along and just north of the warm front is going to be the play of the day, but will be keeping an eye on the dryline further south in case something more isolated fires down ear Pratt/Great Bend.
We will be in my black and silver Subaru Forester, so if you see us, wave and say hey!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Capping showing up really nice on latest sat. image, over central, KS. Will play the top ne corner of the cu field (HLS region) for now unless cu develops further s/sw/se/ by 20z-21z, my usual cut off for cap/cu development. Center of a surface low would also be an option in similar situations. Will likely bite on first good cb today. Regional updated HWO's are interesting.

FYI: Highway Patrol working some type of upgraded operations on I-70.

W.

 

[John Hudson]

Mods, could you also add SD to the rather volatile mix for tomorrow? And, please move this to the 06/05 thread (oops!) The extreme SE corner of SD should see some great action tomorrow. Sioux Falls is calling for severe thunderstorms SE of a line from Brookings to Yankton.

Latest forecast soundings are here: http://68.226.77.253/looper/NAM_skewt_loop72hr.php?stationid=_KYKN

Forecasted storm motions are 35 kts. Better have a full gas tank.


John