John Sickels
EF2
If I am reading the models correctly, it looks like the weekend of June 4-5 could be active in the central plains. A guesscast at this point, but it looks possible.
The question now is how long does the \"spring like\" pattern last until we transition to summer and the heat ridge appears?
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY DAY 4...AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY DAY 5. GREATEST COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST ON DAY 4/DAY 5.
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY DAY 6...BUT THREAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THREAT AREA.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MONDAY DAY 6 WITH THE NEXT LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST. NEW SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BEYOND DAY 6...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES AN AREA.
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpic...indsli_84hr.gif
From Earl's site Saturday morning via the 0z run last night. Surface winds look to be rather veered in the a.m. It might be hard to come up with any convergence in flow like that at the surface. Flying a kite might prove more fun than chasing that.
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run.
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run.
40-50 knots sw 500mb flow from KS to NE with a 994 sfc low in sw KS, a truckload of instability and likely outflow boundaries in the area. I think Friday is still safe.
Originally posted by Jayson Prentice
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run. :roll: