2026-03-05 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[JamesCaruso]

The thing I wish I was better at is picking up on storms like the one east of Enid. The storm far away from everything in a spot no one was looking at, with zero (non-local) chasers on it. There's always one of those somewhere. Looking at mesoanalysis now, it's pretty obvious, but why isn't anyone up there? At least I'm apparently not alone in that deficiency.

Great question that deserves its own thread.

I didn’t have time to look at the situation. When you say it was obvious from mesoanalysis, how far in advance of the event was it evident? Could it have been reasonably forecasted, or was it a later, unanticipated evolution?

I think part of it is an anchoring bias initially - multiple sources focused on a more synoptically evident area, so deeper analysis is focused on that area to the exclusion of others. Then it becomes confirmation bias, zooming in on the favorable factors in that region.

Then once you’re physically in that original area, the bias really locks in to stay put and avoid driving hours to a new spot - especially for a night chase, in this case.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Depends. For a lot of these folks, night chasing isn't the taboo it once was. Probably a combination of (sometimes misplaced) confidence in widespread mobile data/radar coverage, and better video cameras that can actually capture something. Decent severe-warned cell cranking now southwest of Memphis, TX.

Another interesting topic that deserves its own thread… There is one already, I am going to post there and resurrect the topic…

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

Unfortunately a woman and her daughter were killed last night by the tornado in Fairview. Their car was tossed.

 

[Jeff House]

First, I'm sad to learn about the mom and daughter. Whether they were caught by surprise, or aware and mama was doing her very best to protect her cub, it's tragic. Our thoughts are with them and surviving family.

About the meteorology: 22-23Z on March 5 I can see where one might discern a target near Enid. Always easier Friday morning QB but it's there. SPC had it hatched too.

Differential heating boundary includes a marked kink in the wind barbs for what turned out to be robust low-level shear. Surface low was in southwest Kansas - not like it was down in the Panhandle.

Boundary shows up on satellite too. Would be easy to think it'll be capped with too many clouds. Models did not new convect near Enid. They had the storms move in, but not the isolated beast that verified.

Upper air charts (not shown) had the right kinematics all areas. I didn't highlight the southern east-west boundary on the surface, but it was the main target. In this case the northern boundary became 'the one.' That's more like a late May early June play. Honestly I'd pick south boundary this early in the season. Chalk it up to an always challenging hobby - but so rewarding when we find a hidden gem (without tragedy).

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I picked up on it mid afternoon after the 20Z OUN sounding. The sounding was launched with 68/64 at the surface, but by the time it had posted an hour later Norman mesonet was 74/64.



As you can see, good hodograph and reasonably tall, good CAPE. Modifying the surface temp of the sounding really changed a lot as you can imagine. Here's the sounding with the modification



I was headed out to the 'go here' target with everyone else, but stopped before I got to Lawton. The Theta-E map also pointed more towards Central Oklahoma. Winds were also backed a little better the further east you went. This kept me closer to Metro, but I didn't really care to chase after dark.

 

[Hannah.Taylor]

I picked up on it mid afternoon after the 20Z OUN sounding. The sounding was launched with 68/64 at the surface, but by the time it had posted an hour later Norman mesonet was 74/64.

View attachment 28720

As you can see, good hodograph and reasonably tall, good CAPE. Modifying the surface temp of the sounding really changed a lot as you can imagine. Here's the sounding with the modification

View attachment 28721

I was headed out to the 'go here' target with everyone else, but stopped before I got to Lawton. The Theta-E map also pointed more towards Central Oklahoma. Winds were also backed a little better the further east you went. This kept me closer to Metro, but I didn't really care to chase after dark.
View attachment 28722

I was eyeballing that theta-e map while sitting in Hollis yesterday awaiting initiation and thought that environment might be more favorable but I wasn't sure as I haven't developed my forecasting instincts just yet. I'm still trying to put it all together. The light bulb hasn't quite gone on just yet but I'm making progress.

 

[Boris Konon]

Unfortunately a woman and her daughter were killed last night by the tornado in Fairview. Their car was tossed.

This is tragic. Sorry to hear this.

If this is any solace, looking at the large picture, this ended the second longest streak of no tornado fatalities in the U.S. on record (since 1950 best I can tell).

#1 283 days May 2017 - Feb 2018
#2 255 days June 2025 - March 2026

A lot of the MSM and some individuals on social media often go around acting like tornado fatalities are unusual or exceptional, as if they are not supposed to happen or they could be totally prevented? Yes, in an ideal world, there would be none, but that's not reality. And tornado fatalities have come way down over the decades w/ a record low 10 in in 2018. There are 100M more ppl in the U.S. now compared to 1990, so this decline is even more impressive taking this into account! Sadly, such positive news often gets ignored.

 

[William Monfredo]

Boundary shows up...

Some would have found the RAP weather site useful Thursday evening.
Its quick-look (surface) forecast-chart for 00Z yesterday drew that same quasi-stationary boundary across north-central OK.
For being a relatively simplistic weather map, I was pleasantly surprised.
I don't have the exact one, but here's an example link: Quick Forecast: RAP Real-Time Weather .

 

[Randy Zipser]

Here are a few stories picked up by the mainstream media (USA Today, The Associated Press, and CNN) about the mother and daughter tornado fatalities in Oklahoma last night:

Tornado kills 2 in Oklahoma as tornado threat expands and shifts east today

MSN

Mother, daughter killed in Oklahoma tornado; more severe storms expected

P.S. The pic of the tornado in the MSN/AP article makes a good, clear background image for your devices, and the video insert is good too!