6/19/04 FCST: Central High Plains

[Tony Laubach]

SPC's long stretch of a slight risk over the weekend has me once again thinking of another Saturday on the road; again, close to home (gotta love June).

Colorado has seen a pretty good year for severe weather in comparison to some recent years; last week was the Northeast Plains, this week has been the Southeast Plains; and looks like Saturday will once again give the chance back to NE.

SPC's makes mention of possible tornadoes in Wyoming/Colorado.. although it looks as if forcing will be rather minimal all across the risk area, I would likely still play just east of DIA where a convergence zone would likely form and give way to severe storms. That'll clear up as time passes.

In any case, Satruday could be yet another round for the Northeastern Plains.. any takers?

 

[Austin Ivey]

Yep, I'll be out there. Planning on starting my day at the Raton public library (awesome place) then going from there. Luckily Saturday is two days away from the longest day of the year so we will have plenty of daylight and insolation to work with. Not too impressed with tornado poss. but I haven't gotten to chase in E. NM/E. CO this year so I want to get out there when the risk is so close to home.


DDC AFD:

YET ANOTHER MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE, THIS S/WV APPEARS TO BE RATHER STOUT AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY.

 

[Bill Tabor]

I thought of going and would have probably targeted the western OK panhandle, or the northernmost TX panhandle, but the surface and 850mb winds are so weak. 700mb winds are variable in different places, and 500mb is marginal. Given this I do expect severe thunderstorms with possibly 1 or 2 possible tornadoes. SPC is probably justified in the 5%, but I don't think it is a very strong opportunity. I want another run at a June 12th storm.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Hey Bill-

Are you talking about today or tomorrow bec. I believe this thread is for saturday.

 

[David Wolfson]

Overnight in Limon, CO, tonight. The latest progs are looking like best shot for tomorrow is right about here or a little east/southeast of here.

It's really hard to believe there's a snowball's chance of severe tomorrow, with the temps somewhere in the 40's, 1/2 mile vis. in fog, and a stiff northeast wind! But the return flow up the Palmer Divide isn't to be denied, or so they say....

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
It's really hard to believe there's a snowball's chance of severe tomorrow, with the temps somewhere in the 40's, 1/2 mile vis. in fog, and a stiff northeast wind! But the return flow up the Palmer Divide isn't to be denied, or so they say....

David, don't know if you got any leftovers from the quick hailstorm we got here, but it proves that severe can happen at night when its 40 degrees.. Monument Hill reported snow last hour! Yes, that's right.. SNOW IN LATE JUNE :shock: ! Had I seen that here in the city (or anywhere close), I would've packed up and left! :lol:

Austin, if you are out and about tomorrow, may I be the first to welcome you to Eastern Colorado! Good luck tomorrow! Hope you get something a bit more memorable other than the usual wrath of rounded ice!

As for tomorrow, temps are suppose to rebound a bit, and moisture won't lack in the area, but it does appear to be a very narrow area from west to east. I don't intend to venture much further than my homestead tomorrow as I have some things to do in town, however, I may steal some time to enjoy my vantage point from E-470 looking over the Eastern Plains east of Denver; maybe a quick landspout or two!

SPC's thinking is that most of the storms will remain pressed from I-25 west to the Front Range (another pro to sticking close to home).. though I wouldn't hold my breath for anything tornatic, they have had TORN WARNINGS just about every day this week even under cloudy, cool conditions, so I wouldn't be shocked to hear more of the same tomorrow.. hopefully Denver will escape the wrath of hail they had last week, but it looks as if you may be playing closer to the Denver area tomorrow.. may want to venture further south for tornatic potential!

Good luck tomorrow! If either of you make it into Denver, let me know! Be safe!

Ciao!

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Another Day of Storms in the Rockies?

Judging from all indications, it looks like another stormy day in the Rockies. I looked at the NWS weather radar out of Denver/Boulder and the base reflectivity is actually bouncing off what looks like mountain ranges.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r...0/si.kftg.shtml

Can anybody confirm this radar reading?? Thanks. 8)