Jason Persoff
EF3
Yes, it's early to start this thread, but here's my take and it's my first full day to chase.
As for Saturday, 5/29, however, there is a lot of evidence coming into focus of a negatively tilted trough over the C Plains states with winds increasingly looking like they'll be SSW @ 40-50 kt over NE/KS/E CO. 700mb temps are brutally warm over most of the region except over the NE PH and E WY. I am pleased to see the LLJ appears strong with 850mb winds out of the S/SE at 30kt! GFS hints at low pressure over the CO front range will result in upslope flow along the CO front range.
Preliminary target (120 hr out) will be CO/NE/WY borders where convective precip appears likely in a favorable upslope regime. Moisture return will reasonable for the high plains with Tds in the 50s. Saturday is the kind of chase day I've been praying would happen. Now let's see what 120 hours does to my forecast...
Sunday, 5/30, shows little in the way of favorable situations. The H5 winds will provide a right entrance region to a jet streak, but the sfc is a mess with high pressure dominating the sfc and scoured out moisture looks like it will be quite dry. I don't see anything that is particularly tempting there.
Memorial Day, 5/31, Monday, shows some warm, moist air traveling northward into central KS up to the NE border. H5 winds will be largely zonal and reasonable at 40+ kts. Currently GFS suggests a possible low pressure system (weak) setting up over SE CO. The GOM appears pretty stingy, but there may be a meager LLJ. Nothing so far excites me about Monday and the area is pretty diffuse all things considered with a lot of things out of synch.
Post Memorial Day, things look bleak for the remainder of the week. But we're still far enough out not to despair too much (yet).
As for Saturday, 5/29, however, there is a lot of evidence coming into focus of a negatively tilted trough over the C Plains states with winds increasingly looking like they'll be SSW @ 40-50 kt over NE/KS/E CO. 700mb temps are brutally warm over most of the region except over the NE PH and E WY. I am pleased to see the LLJ appears strong with 850mb winds out of the S/SE at 30kt! GFS hints at low pressure over the CO front range will result in upslope flow along the CO front range.
Preliminary target (120 hr out) will be CO/NE/WY borders where convective precip appears likely in a favorable upslope regime. Moisture return will reasonable for the high plains with Tds in the 50s. Saturday is the kind of chase day I've been praying would happen. Now let's see what 120 hours does to my forecast...
Sunday, 5/30, shows little in the way of favorable situations. The H5 winds will provide a right entrance region to a jet streak, but the sfc is a mess with high pressure dominating the sfc and scoured out moisture looks like it will be quite dry. I don't see anything that is particularly tempting there.
Memorial Day, 5/31, Monday, shows some warm, moist air traveling northward into central KS up to the NE border. H5 winds will be largely zonal and reasonable at 40+ kts. Currently GFS suggests a possible low pressure system (weak) setting up over SE CO. The GOM appears pretty stingy, but there may be a meager LLJ. Nothing so far excites me about Monday and the area is pretty diffuse all things considered with a lot of things out of synch.
Post Memorial Day, things look bleak for the remainder of the week. But we're still far enough out not to despair too much (yet).