2024-06-20 EVENT: WY/NE


Staff member
Jul 5, 2009
Newtown, Pennsylvania
Really liking today's setup in southeast WY and the Nebraska Panhandle. Northern half of Goshen County, WY looks best, where dewpoint is already 62 at 16Z. RAP 15Z run for 0Z this evening shows mid-60s dewpoints, 2500 MLCAPE, 40 knots at 500mb, 50 knots at 300mb, and 80 knots at 200mb. Only issue seems to be weakness at 700mb, but hodograph still looks good - E to NE surface flow makes up for it, resulting in good low-level turning and decent (thought not great) mid-level shear as well, which was lacking in several Southern Plains setups this year IIRC. Cap looks breakable with the upslope and any waves in the flow.

Main problem is the road network sucks north of route 26, with only two north/south roads and no east/west roads that I can see. I'd probably hang out in Torrington or Lingle and adjust from there as conditions warrant. Might be a situation where you have to head north of there to get a look at a storm but then backtrack. Hope for a right mover that allows chasing it to areas southeast of Torrington into the Nebraska Panhandle and toward I-80 where roads are only marginally better.

This is all theoretical for me as I sit working from home in the Philadelphia area, still having trouble decoupling from a chasing preoccupation even though I have been home two weeks already.
The warm front lifted north to Wheatland/Torrington this afternoon. A supercell popped along the warm front between Wheatland and Chugwater, crossed I-25, traveled easterly along it then dropped 4.5" diameter hail around Yoder along with a weak tornado. We believe there was an earlier one crossing I-25 with a definitive radar CC drop for a few scans.
Yeah, it was more the southern half of Goshen County than the northern half per my "armchair chase target," but I'm sure if I was actually out there I would have made the necessary adjustment in time. I was watching some livestreams, one tornado was visible but likely a landspout. The velocity couplet between Morrill and Mitchell looked pretty good, but was buried deep in the hail core. The whole thing grew upscale very quickly, kind of a disappointing mess. Recent severe warning is for 100 mph winds - imagine baseball hail driven by 100 mph winds!