5/29/04 NOW: Oklahoma / Texas (south targets)

Mike Peregrine

EF5
Joined
Dec 8, 2003
Messages
2,208
Location
Kansas City, Missouri
Going ahead and starting the nowcasting thread for this afternoon. Looks like one of the biggest events of the year will be starting shortly.

Some things for nowcasters to keep in mind ... please post relevant information only concerning satellite, radar observations - please do not cut and paste watch/warning/mds language - except if the language is clipped with immediately relevant information. Please stick with your own realtime obs as much as possible. If multiple storms initiate and become tornadic at the same time, please concentrate on storm direction, speed, and the location of strongest areas of rotation. Other information such as boundary location, dryline movement, CU development, etc. is of course much appreciated.

Thanks for putting effort into a quality nowcast thread.
 
Tornado Watch Forthcoming

NWS in Norman, OK has posted a MSD for the Central Plains. Here's a few excerpts from the weather statement:

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT.

A WW COULD BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO.
Click to expand...

Here's a link to that MSD:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0971.html
 
I consider this a short-term forecast more relevant to NOW thread than FCST thread, given the short-term nature... Anyways, here's my take for OK...

I am seeing pretty remarkable similarities to May 3rd 1999. As the same with 5/3/99, there appears to be a confluence zone from central Caddo Co south and southeastward from there (the first storms were thought to have started add on this confluence zone / nearby HCRs). Additionally, I am seeing hints of a double dryline structure setting up in far nw OK... One delineates tds from low 60s and the other delineating Tds from the 30s, just as was the case may 3 99. There remains persistently backed winds east of the confluence zone, from LAW to El Reno and eastward thru the OKC metro. RUC forecast signficant low-level shear and convergence building in sw OK this pm, so I'd expect intiation of at least one signficant tornadic supercell along that confluence zone and move near or just south of the OKC metro.

Additionally, I'm seeing hints of a differential heating boundary in far NW OK. Sfc winds have veered a little bit north of I40 and west of I35, but 72-74 Tds seem prevalent from Enid - I35 eastward, along with pretty backed surface winds. I'd expect initiation pretty close to the interaction area of the dryline and the diff. heating boundary in nw OK.

All in all, looks like a very active day... Heading up to near Enid right now. Good luck to all...

{Mods, please move this to FCST if you think it's too long-term for a NOW}
 
Sitting in Blackwell Oklahoma watching an interesting boundry just to our west on radar. Waiting for something to develop.........
 
Tornado watch issued for 39 counties in OK. Cu's going up in west central OK. Here we go!
 
Check that....the "regular" watch was quickly upgraded to PDS after the text version came out. So almost all of Kansas and parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma are under the PDS gun.
 
Towers now going up on the OK/TX Panhandle Border.

Also, first signs of towers now going up...one in particular NW of Salina, KS.

A lot of the parameters are making the OK/Southern KS the hot spot for the biggies......Sig Svr, Sig Tor, Sup Comp all maxing out in this area.

Also, look for the warm front in Iowa to start popping shortly.
 
I am sitting in Woodward OK on the dryline and towers are going up. Wind is strong out of the SSE at about 20 g to 35 or so.
 
Tornado Warning was just issued for Roger MIlls County in W OK

Looks like its going to be a long, but exciting evening
 
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