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5/28/04 FCST: OK, TX, KS

Isn't it time we started talking about Friday? - Well I'd certainly say so - - -

Looks like activity back in the central and southern plains as per the 84hr GFS in response to surface low developing over high plains. Winds appear to be backed in Kansas and Oklahoma with Theta-E axis and TDs pushing 80 over Red River area.

Oklahoma anyone?
 
While I'm optimistic about Friday (especially since I have a 4 day wknd) I'm not overly excited at this point. First of all timing could be issue with the potential friday event. With the dynamics possibly arriving too early (overnight convective debris may be a instability limiting factor as could early morning MCS). OUN put it well this afternoon:

"CURRENT PROGS WUD SUGGEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THUR EVENING INTO FRI MORNING AS LEAD UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS..BUT IF THIS TIMING IS CORRECT..SVR THREAT MAY BE
LIMITED. "

Im too busy right now to peruse the models and their differences so basically Im just regurgitating what the NWS office forecasters are thinking. I like OUN discussions and obviously value their opinion; hence my post.

I'm sure it will ALL change by Friday! :lol:
 
Indeed, the models have indicated a weaker system the past couple of runs, and the timing does seem off, with it zipping across the TX Panhandle and into OK on Thursday night. If that solution verifies, there might not be much opportunity for chasing. Still, there could perhaps be some action in the Panhandle Thursday evening provided the dryline doesn't mix too far east, and I guess E OK could still be in play for Friday.

Of course, if the system speeds up or slows down just a little, the whole story changes. So, I'm going to continue to keep Friday in mind as a potential chase day.

Big day could be Saturday, though (the "day before the day" event). Granted, all the dynamics arrive in earnest on Sunday, but there'll be a pretty strong late season cold front to contend with. Lots of dynamics and a cold front sound an awful lot like "squall line" to me. Saturday, however, could be interesting.
 
Well, again here we go... "hopes" that something will finally come together for the southern plains ???

My wish, system slows down and strengthens !!! :wink:

Would sure be nice to have a BIG day in the panhandles on Thursday, then big stuff over central plains Friday/Saturday/Sunday.

Later,
:shock:
 
The following could provide some useful insight into the model discrepancies and what solution is currently preferred:

"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1257 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

PLAINS...
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE AT H5 WORTH DISCUSSING TONIGHT IS THE
UPR CYC MOVG OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY HR 60. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ETA...PARTIALLY DUE TO GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK.
THE MDLS ARE USUALLY TOO WEAK W/SHRTWVS BY THIS TIME FRAME.
WL FAVOR THE STRONGER GFS LOOK...BUT A SFC SOLN CLOSER TO
THE ETA AS THE GFS PRES PATTERN IS CONTAMINATED BY THE PREV
MENTIONED FEEDBACK."


So, a stronger cyclone than predicted by the ETA could come to fruition for Friday/Saturday.
 
I see the ETA now brings the system in a little farther south, across W TX and into NW TX early Friday morning. The problem I foresee is a lack of moisture out west for Thursday afternoon/evening, with the dryline progged to mix east into W OK and NW TX. The ETA has a tendency to mix the dryline too far east, however.

Of course, the southern end of the dryline could be usable - provided the system takes this new southern track. Most recent MAF and SJT forecast discussions seem to recognize the potential for storms down that way Thursday evening.

Friday looks less and less worthwhile, with the system scooting off to the NE and out of the Plains. Of course, as said before, a slight difference in timing could change a lot. Live by the models, die by the models.
 
I'm afraid that today the main action will be in Canada. Environment Canada is saying supercells will be forming in an area from Edmonton to Lloyminster this afternoon with capes now forecast to be over 9000 in that area. Somebody please tell me I'm wrong. I can only chase for a couple hours this afternoon and that is 4 or 5 hours from here. It is supposed to be storming all across southern Saskatchewan also, so I imagine I will be chasing something today.

Cheers,

Jared
 
I'm afraid that today the main action will be in Canada. Environment Canada is saying supercells will be forming in an area from Edmonton to Lloyminster this afternoon with capes now forecast to be over 9000 in that area. Somebody please tell me I'm wrong. I can only chase for a couple hours this afternoon and that is 4 or 5 hours from here. It is supposed to be storming all across southern Saskatchewan also, so I imagine I will be chasing something today.

Cheers,

Jared

Jared, where you getting 9000? I only ask because available model guidance is suggesting no where near that... or even 1500... or even... 900?
 
I was surprised to see that myself, I wonder if its a mistake? TWN is now saying the severe threat is actually going to be further north and west of Edmonton. I will have to wait until I see the next forecast but it must be wrong.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/FOCN45/CWWG.TXT

"THE MAIN TREAT

AREA WILL BE NR AND EAST OF EDMONTON TOWARDS LLOYDMINSTER AREA. LI

WILL BE NR -4 -5, WITH CAPES NR 9000J.KG. HOWEVER FAVOURABLE

WND PROFILE SHUD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS."

Notice the spelling mistake :? I think they meant "Threat" not "Treat" lol. I'm not sure what is going on in the weather office today....

Thanks Jeff,

Jared
 
UPDATE:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/FOCN45/CWWG.TXT

"SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SRN SK THIS AFTERNOON.
SIG WX THREATS..SLGT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS OVER SRN SK INTO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING."

I wonder if we can have a separate thread to discuss this since most activity seems to be in the northern plains today?

"BETTER SUPPORT FOR TSTM DVLPMT SHOULD BE OVER SRN SK GENERALLY FROM YXE SEWD ALONG AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BETTER SHEAR." (translation: Saskatoon to Regina to Estevan) See my map for a good indication of where the threat is today.

http://www.saskatoonscanner.com/severe/
 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Posted

I see there's a severe thunderstorm watch posted for Eastern NE, Eastern SD, Southwest MN and Northwest IA. I know, I know, this thread is for points south of NE, but wanted to mention this watch area. No significant activity yet and its only 4:15 p.m. CDT. Still early yet, right chasers?? 8) LJK.
 
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