Patrick K
EF0
NE mesonet showing the warm front has made it well into southeastern Nebraska. Currently there's a PDS tornado warning for the isolated supercell north of Lincoln, although recent radar scans seem to indicate weakening.
2024-04-26 EVENT: IA/NE/KS/MO/OK
- Thread starter Andy Wehrle
- Start date
Patrick K
EF0
Warren Faidley
Supporter
You can almost here the faint echos of people asking why there was no moderate or high risk today.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Historic event unfolding no doubt. Also, the most intense and quality live coverage of a major event with multiple violent tornadoes ever.
Mark Gressman Jr
Supporter
I was kinda looking at today as filler between what I thought were gonna be the 2 bigger days... boy was I wrong. 70+ reports and a tornado emergency so far is incredible. My thoughts are with those who were in the path of the multi vortex that went through Minden and everyone else who's been affected.... hoping for the best. The northern action looks to be crossing into stable air, but a few cells to the south still have some steam. People are gonna be on edge if tomorrow shapes up to expectations.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
What made today really big was the perfect set-up of shear that kept the wedges almost completely rain free.
twarner
EF0
We were talking about this at supper. Reading their forecast makes you feel like they would rather underforecast than be accused of blowing the forecast or hyping the weather.
Wichita forecasters have been interesting to read. One would hype Saturday, and then the next would list all the reasons why it might not happen in the next forecast.
I've seen this discussed before, but here's another example of a day that is unarguably a tornado outbreak with a relative dearth of hail reports (especially significant hail).
I do not know the reason for this - whether it is a reporting issue/bias or true atmospheric character.
I do not know the reason for this - whether it is a reporting issue/bias or true atmospheric character.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Seen some chasers/researchers (notably Trey Greenwood [Convective Chronicles] and Cameron Nixon) posit that strong low-level shear, favorable for tornadoes, is not favorable for large hail production.
Brian R.
EF1
Absolutely INSANE number of tornado reports, looks like 100 on spc storm reports, Thoughts are with all who were impacted by the outbreak.
Mike Smith
EF5
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Makes me wonder if this is the same strong, low-level shear that made the tornadoes so visible?
Keep in mind that the spatial smoothing radius used on that site does not match the one used by SPC for its official forecast verification. The above overly smooths things and thus produces higher practically perfect probabilities than SPC's verification system does.
Mike Smith
EF5
I'll wager you a Diet Coke the next time I see you that, when the final surveys are in, the correct forecast would have been 'high."
