5/26/04 FCST: NW TX, SW & CEN OK

I've analyzed a weak midlevel disturbance that the 12Z RUC didn't
pick up on too well. ETA analysis has it but doesn't do much with
it besides break out precip around SPS. SE KS has strong
instability ahead of the dry punch but poor 0-1km shear and a hodo
that looks more like splitting storms than anything else. Plus
they're socked in. Dewpoints up there recovering rapidly, however,
already in upper 60's with a few 70's.

RUC shows convergence and precip ahead of the dryline here in NW
Texas culminating in a full erosion the cap by about 22Z near SPS.
Wind fields would support supercells and with the broken cloud deck,
our temps might stay near enough to keep the dewpoint depressions
reasonable.

So we're sort of trying to decide between Coffeyville KS to Enid, OK
area or SPS to ABI. It's all very marginal for tornadoes, but supercells seem possible, much like those around ABI last night.

Opinions?
 
TORN Watch for MO

I know this is out of the FCST area, but NWS posted a TORN Watch for MO until 9 p.m. CDT:

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MISSOURI


8) LJK.
 
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